Time is Running Out. Will the Northwest Make Up its Precipitation Deficit?

 Most of the Northwest has experienced below-normal precipitation this year, but half a month is left.

Can we catch up?   As the insightful Yogi Berra said famously:  "The game ain't over till it's over"

Consider the accumulated rainfall (green) over Seattle compared to normal (brown) for 2024, shown below.

Seattle is down about 8 inches (normal is about 37 inches).

In eastern Washington, Pasco is below normal, but by far less (just under an inch behind).

Looking at the whole region, the difference from normal for precipitation from January 1 to December 5 is quite varied.   Northern California and southwest Oregon have been considerably wetter than normal.   Oregon as a whole is a wash.  But Washington has been drier than normal, particularly the western side of the Cascades.

So the question you are all wondering:  will we catch up?   Or was Yogi Berra right?

The answer: we may make up a significant portion of this deficit during the next two weeks.   

Why?  Because the large-scale atmosphere will be locked into a favorable upper-level pattern, with a deep upper-level low over the Aleutians, resulting in a moist southwesterly flow over the Northwest (see upper-level, 500hPa heights (solid lines), with the difference from normal shown by shading).

Consider the predicted precipitation accumulation through the end of the month by two major global prediction systems.

The European Center model predicts very wet conditions, and particularly moist over the western portion of our region.  Purples are around 18 inches!

The American model, the GFS,  is similarly wet.   We might not catch up to normal, but we would get within striking distance. 

Seattle's reservoir levels are near normal right now, even before the deluge:

Want more good news?   No major cyclones are predicted to reach our region during the next week.