May 18, 2024

New Podcast: How Far into the Future Can We Forecast the Weather? and A Cool/Soggy Forecast

My latest podcast is out.

I start with the forecast, which calls for a continuation of the cool, sometimes wet, pattern of the last few days.  Forget any heatwave!

Then I discuss the issue of forecast skill.

We can now skillfully forecast for over a week and in much greater detail.

Not so 50 years ago.  What has changed?   All is revealed in the podcast.

The Decline of Forecast Skill over time for the North Hemisphere.

You can listen to the podcast below or through your favorite podcast server.

Some major podcast servers:

 HTML tutorial HTML tutorial


  1. Very good podcast; thanks! The current accuracy of forecasts is impressive, indeed. I've wondered about the extent to which satellite data now "informs" the forecast models, in addition to sea temperatures and the like. Does the "european model" have more "inputs" and data points? Are tangible observations fed back into the models for fine tuning? "Curious, always curious" here.

  2. Hi Cliff, have you looked into the LRC (Lezak Recurring Cycle) and does it seem valid?

  3. Cliff, apropos of your podcast topic, I think you'll find this interesting: TL;DR - weather forecasting will continue to get better in certain respects due to advances in technology but in many ways we've reached the ceiling of what's possible due to our inability to collect enough data about the atmosphere to produce a "perfect forecast".


Please make sure your comments are civil. Name calling and personal attacks are not appropriate.

More Rain for the Northwest is Good News for Wildfires

After a very pleasant dry spell, another rainy period is ahead for the western side of the region and the Cascades on Friday and Saturday.  ...