May 15, 2024

No Heatwaves for the Rest of the Month!

 Today may well be the warmest day for the rest of the month.  

Mid-May warmth is quite typical around here.  But so is a cool down at the end of May.

And yes, precipitation will return.

Let's start with the latest European Center 10-day forecast for Seattle (below). 73F high today, but then temperatures slide into the 60s and then 50s.  My tomatoes will not be happy.

The NOAA/NWS National Blend of Models (NBM), which combines many forecast models and is usually quite accurate, also keeps things cool, with highs in the lower 60s.

You will need your sweater again.

And what about precipitation?

Let's look at the latest forecasts of the European Center Model.  The forecast precipitation accumulation through Friday morning shows a regional dampening, with the North Cascades getting a good wetting.

But it does not end there.  By the following Saturday morning (May 25th), there will be relatively heavy accumulated rain in all the regional mountains.  Good for river levels and fish.

The UW model has a similar solution.

This cool/wet period will be very positive for regional crops.   By the way, it appears that the Northwest cherry crop is in very good shape (I like cherries).

So why are we cooling down?  Because the warmth-inducing, high-pressure ridge over our coast will rapidly weaken, replaced by a trough of lower pressure.

Consider the average over the next five days for the upper level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) heights (like pressure) shown below.   Blue indicated below normal heights (called roughing).

Troughing (low pressure) is dominant over the region, with ridging (high pressure) offshore.  It's not a warm pattern for the Northwest.

Next five days?   Even cooler, with the troughing pushing westward over the Northwest coast.  Expect cooler and wetter than normal conditions.

You won't need any AC this month.


Massive Vandalism Around the UW

I will talk about it in more detail in my next blog, but there has been massive (and very expensive) vandalism around the UW, including spray painting both historic and new buildings (see below).

This is what happens when a college administration allows lawbreaking and vandalism to spread. 

Antisemitism, physical violence, property destruction, and illegal camping are endemic around the UW.  The UW administration should have closed down the illegal encampment weeks ago.  When lawbreaking is tolerated with no consequences, it simply increases.

A sad period for all Huskies.  We are going the way of Columbia and UCLA and it could have been avoided.


  1. The I recently was part of a union strike and being on the picket line has taught me alot about the proper way to protest. I'm glad our youth is politically active but I don't understand why they are protesting against the school. The school doesn't have anything to do with the Middle East or Boeing. They should be protesting on a public sidewalk in Olympia or in front of the Boeing Factory. Maybe they are afraid Boeing/the government would call the police against them which is why they need to stay on public property, be peaceful and have numbers. Protesting used to be completely illegal and successful illegal protests are what got us the right to protest today so sometimes protesters do need to push the boundaries. However if they do push the boundaries they need to 1) have numbers 2) have alot of public support 3) keep innocent people and businesses out of the fray 4) Understand the risk they are taking 5) do not block roads if you create a traffic jam I'm going to get mad and be much less likely to support you're cause.

    1. Boeing is just a throw-away excuse for the protests, which have nothing to do with securing the legitimate rights of American labor. They are protesting: (1) against Jews having a sovereign republic; and, (2) in favor of leveraging Islamist terrorism to disrupt modern republican governance in service of Maoist revolution; and most of them don't even have a clue about the existence or consequences of those rationales.

  2. I worry about payback this summer, we just don't get cool/wet summers anymore.

  3. Sad...very sad. Boeing has donated so much to UW, improving the lives of staff, students, and the Seattle area technology community.

  4. >... I don't know why they're protesting against the school.

    Storm1, they are looking for their keys under the street lamp because that's where the light is best.

  5. Here is an an off-topic FYI type of comment:

    I am now engaged in a personal project to analyze the costs of adding 3500 megawatts of wind & solar capacity plus 720 megawatts of demand response capacity to the US Northwest's power grid.

    The new capacity must generate 29 terawatt-hours baseload annually and 5 terawatt-hours demand response annually, which equates to 95% and 60% annual capacity factors, respectively.

    Here is a link to a WUWT comment which describes what I am doing with this cost analysis project. I'm about half done with the analysis.

    Cost Analysis: Quickly Expand Wind & Solar in the US Northwest


    The Northwest Power & Conservation Council's 2021 power plan calls for adding 3500 megawatts of wind and solar power, plus 720 megawatts of demand response power, to the Northwest's regional power supply. Very limited grid-scale battery storage is included in the 2021 plan because hydropower fills the need for energy storage.

    Since the NWPCC's 2021 power plan was published in early 2022, the Biden Administration has adopted environmental and energy policies which will force the early retirement of the region's coal-fired and gas-fired power generation capacity. In addition, the Biden Administration has signed an agreement with the State of Washington and with the region's Indian Tribes which will force the removal of four large hydroelectric dams on the lower Snake River in Washington State.

    The practical effect of these policies is that both the 3500 Mw baseload additions and the 720 Mw demand response additions must be zero emission wind and solar; and further, must have very high annual capacity factors which match those of the legacy power generation systems now targeted for early retirement. As a consequence of this developing situation, the installation of very substantial grid-scale battery storage must now be included in the Northwest's long range power plan.

    The NWPCC's 2021 power plan assumes that electricity can be readily imported from outside the Northwest region whenever it is needed. The true fact is that the forced early retirement of the coal-fired and gas-fired capacity now attached to the Western Interconnect, plus the breaching and removal of four large hydro-electric dams on the lower Snake River, will result in significant shortfalls in power generation capacity beginning in the late 2020's.

    As this situation evolves over the next decade, power grid reliability will trump power grid cost as a primary driver for power planning.

    For my cost analysis study, the aggregated performance requirements being applied to new-build wind & solar systems, plus their battery backup systems, is chosen to match what would be possible with the construction of three Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plants at 1200 Mw each (baseload), plus twelve NuScale SMR modules at 77 Mw each (demand response & load-following).

    Several more months of work are needed to finish out the cost analysis. In the meantime, all comments and questions are welcome.

  6. Here is a proper link to the WUWT comment referenced in my first post above. (With any luck, it actually works.)

    Cost Analysis: Quickly Expand Wind & Solar in the US Northwest

    Beta Blocker a.k.a. Betah Blocher

  7. As for the cool weather, while higher freezing levels were forecast, there was fresh snow again up here above Glacier at about 3000 ft (and lower, all depends on the terrain). It wasn't a mass of snow, but hey-ho. Even now at 5:12 pm not all that much melted from the trees. Just saying - cool is right.


Please make sure your comments are civil. Name calling and personal attacks are not appropriate.

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