July 29th is climatologically the driest day of the year in Seattle.
On this July 29th (Monday), an unusually wet system is predicted to move into the central and western portions of Western Washington.
The result? The wettest day on record for the climatological driest day of the year at Seattle Tacoma Airport.
You will tell your grandchildren about this day.
The wettest day was 0.17 inches in 1993.
The NOAA/NWS ensemble system is going for about 0.25 inches on Monday, although there is some variability in the forecast.
The UW ensemble high-resolution prediction system is predicting very wet conditions for Monday and early Tuesday over western Washington, with the total precipitation through 5 PM Tuesday exceeding an inch in the mountains and about 0.5 inch around SeaTac.
Which smashes the record!
The highly skillful European Center total precipitation accumulation prediction for the same period is similar (below).
Several daily precipitation records will fall that day.
What about temperature?
As you can expect, it will be much cooler than normal, with highs only reaching the mid-60s over the western lowlands. Below is the predicted temperature anomaly from normal from normal at 5 PM Monday.for the European Center surface air temperature forecast.
Wow. Most of the area will be at least 10F cooler than normal and some locations 15D cooler and more. Eastern WA will enjoy some cool relief.
Maybe it will knock down that fire on Lake Chelan.
ReplyDeleteIt'll help firefighters trying to save Stehekin, but it's not enough water to put anything out.
DeleteMy vacation must be starting
ReplyDeleteGrins! Truth is, we finally had some "roll" golfing. Drat.
DeleteMeanwhile over at USFS:
ReplyDelete“This is shaping up to be another monster fire year in the Pacific Northwest and it’s just mid-July,” - Ed Hiatt, Pacific Northwest Assistant Fire Director for Operations. Full details at http://fs.usda.gov/r6
https://x.com/ForestServiceNW/status/1815778901135679592
Right now Washington State fire area is substantially less than normal....
DeleteBy adding acreages together from the NWCC morning briefing I'm getting 183,308 acres that have burned in WA. What would the average be for this date? Also I know you didn't include Oregon in your statement but by my hasty math they have had 1.02 million acres burn this year!
DeleteOregon on the other hand is having one of the worst years since 2020
Deletejohn....Oregon has had massive grass fires....going to be a big year there..cliff
DeleteOregon is part of the PNW, so I'd say that statement is really accurate!
DeleteHi Cliff, I was hoping you could do a piece on the pyrocumulus clouds being formed over the Park wildfire at the moment? I had never heard of this phenomenon, but just watched a YT video where the pilot of a small aircraft mentioned this term and it caught my attention. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIf it is as wet as predicted, will July 29th lose it's place as the climatologically driest day of the year, or does it have enough of a lead to stay in first place?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSEA as of 4:20 pm. 0.03 at Sea-Tac. Of course if the Seattle Times had made such bold RECORD BREAKING prediction and been off, Mr. Mass would have lost his mind, again.
ReplyDeleteWowee! Great forecast - spot-on. It's been pouring up here near Mt Baker all day. We DO have rain during the summer in the mountains, on-and-off. But this particular read for the whole area was extremely good, and very welcome on the whole. Still quite green, by the way.
ReplyDelete