February 03, 2025

Snow Tonight and the the Snow Low Off Our Coast

You might call it a snow low.

Cold air is moving to the southwest across the northern BC coast and becoming unstable as it goes over warmer water, producing streaks of instability clouds that circle around the low (indicated by a red "L")


Some of the cold, Arctic air from the interior of BC is moving westward down the Fraser River Valley into Bellingham and its vicinity.   At 2 PM, it was only 25F in Bellingham and in the low 20s a few miles away.


To get a big snowstorm over western Washington, we need the low center to park just offshore of the SW Washington coast.   This pulls cold air southward over western WA and is close enough to push moisture over it.

Many of our big snow events have occurred that way.

Unfortunately, the model is moving the low too far offshore, as shown by the forecast surface map for 10 PM tonight 


There will be some snow tonight with amounts increasing with elevation.  Being at 500 or 1000 ft makes a big difference during such situations.  For example, Dr. Peter Benda measures about 5 inches of snow at around 1000 ft in Bellevue (see below).


Here is the total predicted snowfall through 4 PM Tuesday.  Mostly light amounts except where the Fraser arctic air is hitting the mountains of Vancouver Island or the north side of the Olympics. 
  

In contrast, snow depth at that time is less impressive and highly variable.


This will be one of the most sustained cold periods in years...with the cold holding out for perhaps two more weeks (see below).   Just amazingly cold.  Historic cold spell.




_____________________________

Steve Pool Scholarship Fund

We are now 65% to our goal of the $100K needed to create a permanent undergraduate scholarship in honor of Seattle's most well-known weather communicator,  the late Steve Pool.   

Please consider making a contribution (tax-deductible) to this University of Washington fund.   And thanks to the hundreds of folks who have already contributed.

Here is the info:

A Steve Pool memorial undergraduate scholarship has been established in his honor (see below)

Once funded by contributions, this new undergraduate scholarship will provide financial assistance to promising Atmospheric Sciences students, fostering the training of the next generation of meteorologists and atmospheric scientists.

If you want to contribute or learn more about Steve, check out the webpage below.   Thanks so much....cliff







9 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  2. It appears from the forecast that the average temperature for the first 2 weeks of this month may compare favorably with that of February 2019 in western Whatcom County. It does not appear as though it will be as cold as the first half of the Februaries of 1949 or 1936. For SeaTac, the first half of February 1989 is the gold(cold) standard and it does not appear that it will be as cold as then - more in line with February 2019.

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  3. Thanks as always for keeping us updated and providing us with this information - it always helps me prepare for what's ahead weather wise. I can't help think back to this exact tiime almost to the day about 6 years ago I think??? when we had that February filled with snow, cold temps and then more and more snow....epic times.

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  4. Wow, these models have been so accurate (at least for my location). I have about 5 inches on the ground at 800' on Tiger Mountain, which exactly what the snow depth model predicted. Looking at the 4km (in process right now), and it looks like quite a bit of snow for me tomorrow. Weather Underground app is currently just showing a dusting for tomorrow.

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  5. Yes, yes, and yes. VERY cold spell, and wildly variable snowfall(s) by all accounts. The overnight lows here near Mt. Baker the last few days, 7am data point: 31.5F on 2/1 with a half inch of snow 24.4F 2/2 with 2" snow, 19.4F on 2/3 with 4.1" snow, 15.8F on 2/4 with just under an inch of very fine powder. This is going to go on? Sigh. Groan. The woodshed's starting to look empty. Keep us posted! Your predictions are very important, extremely useful. Stay toasty!

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  6. Looks like my bike will sit around and collect a little more dust. I see several folks have mentioned similarities between this winter and the one from 2018/19. That winter was really mild right up until Super Bowl Sunday and then the snow and cold settled in and hung around for more than a month. The major difference between that cold spell and the one we're in now has been the lack of snow (or at least here in Lake Stevens). It doesn't seen like the two-week icebox of 2019 will materialize, and I'm fine with it. However, March 2019 had a stretch with the warmest winter weather on record and I will sign up for that.

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  7. Any word on what might occur Wednesday? The weather app keeps changing by the hour.

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  8. But Why is the cold snap so sustained? Usually it lasts about a week. Isn't La Nina supposed to turn on the westerlies, and the rain?

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  9. DOGE at NOAA. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/04/doge-noaa-headquarters . Wonder what will change...

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