Late Thursday afternoon, moderate snow led to multiple crashes and trucks/cars sliding off I-90. As a result, the pass was closed for several hours, allowing the removal of vehicles and letting the WSDOT plows improve the drivability of the roadway.
Now, here is my frustration.
The snow was foreseeable. Weather information is so good now that we can warn folks in real time of the approaching snow band so that they can slow down!
The key modeling tool is the NOAA/NWS HRRR model, which runs at high resolution EVERY HOUR.
The 11-h snow forecast for 3-4 PM snow below. Snow around the pass!
You get the idea....snow was predicted on the western side of the Cascades and the Cascade passes well ahead of time.
In real time, the weather radar showed the snow falling at 4:30 PM.
A few years ago, I offered to build a system for WSDOT that would provide state-of-the-art prediction of snow in the pass with real-time updates provided by weather radar, satellite imagery, and other weather assets.
This real-time snow guidance could be used to update reader boards on the side of the highway.
The goal was to stop the snow closures and keep folks safe. Unfortunately, they were not interested.
Another example of valuable information available from meteorologists not being used effectively by society.
A few years ago, wasn't it the official position of WA State that there would be less snow in the mountains – implying safer mountain passes. A proposal to DOT that emphasized Climate Change and more snow might have worked. Or might have gotten you branded as a global warming denier. {I recommend a tunnel. The Europeans seem to have the knowledge.}
ReplyDeleteThere's a name for that sort of thing. It's call mass formation psychosis. Also explains the reaction to COVID.
DeleteTrying too hard.
DeleteSome people drive too fast for all conditions. Tailgating leaves no margin for error. Most vehicles have outside temperature readings, so the potential for icy roads can be identified. SLOW DOWN on icy conditions or rainy conditions.
DeleteA tunnel from Ellensburg to Seattle would be a mighty expensive proposition. It might be more cost effective to convince drivers of Ford Explorers, RAM 4x4s, Range Rovers, BMWs, and Teslas to quit their habit of driving at 80 miles per hour when it is snowing over the passes.
ReplyDeleteHyak to Rockdale, 2.25 miles called the Snoqualmie Tunnel since 1914. Apparently, America in 2025 can't do this. Uff da!
DeleteBetter enforcement of the variable speed limits would go a long way towards reducing closures. WSDOT can do everything perfectly, but if drivers don’t exercise good judgment, road closing accidents are inevitable.
ReplyDeleteThis is the right answer. People take the variable speeds signs as a mere suggestion, as they blast past them at 75-80 MPH in all manner of conditions. WSP should look into photo enforcement of speed limits during reduced speed events.
DeleteThe problem here isn’t with WSDOT, it’s a people problem. The best information system in the world won’t get the crazies to slow down. You know, the people who say that they’re more worried about “others” when it snows, that they themselves are expert snow drivers.
ReplyDeleteI'd bet that the problems happened within the variable speed zones.
ReplyDeleteA big rig that goes sideways probably only had all season tires or chains as options.
Passenger vehicles might be driving past with summer tires, all season tires, winter tires, or studded winter tires, before needing to add chains. Then there's the possibility of all wheel drive.
The differences in speed between different vehicles causes significant issues, not least of which is frustration of the prepared by the unprepared. Even when the speed limit is reduced, some people will be driving 20mph over while some will be 20mph under,
I drive over snoqualmie weekly— it’s the DRIVERS not familiar with winter conditions and have 4WD or AWD that think they can still go 70 (or more) in snowy, slush, or even icy weather! And when the weather is clear and dry people are pushing 90 mph—people ignore speed limits on the pass. Sometimes the big semis too—they completely ignore the 65 speed limit for them and they FLY on the highway. Need more patrol to write more tickets or put up speed cameras for automatic ticketing—hitting people in their wallets is the only way they’re gonna slow down. Snow management on the pass is excellent—better than it was 10-20 years ago. Since the removal of the snow shed and redesign, it’s rarely been closed for avalanche conditions. Heck I’ve “broke trail” going over the pass in a front wheel drive car, but going 25-30 mph, then had a couple big SUV’s and truck go zooming past—-I caught up to them eventually as one was on its side and the other 2 spun out. If the roads are bad SLOW DOWN! WDOT has often made statements when shutting down the pass, that’s it’s because of the drivers not slowing down, not the conditions itself. Also if you’re driving on “All Season” tires….those really are only 3 season tires, you still need studded or winter tires rated for snow and ice.
ReplyDeletePerhaps holding drivers responsible for the time lost when they cause a pass closure might help- but probably not. From what I see, it's trucks who refuse to chain up when they should, which is anytime snow tires are required on passenger vehicles. A spun out or crashed truck has much more impact on the pass than a passenger vehicle.
ReplyDeleteIt’s a mindset issue. With the days getting longer people don’t expect there to be big snow events in March. They’re thinking it’s spring time and have put away the chain’s because they assume the snow and ice is done for the season.
ReplyDeleteI agree. More cops. Start writing tickets for people going above the variable speed limit.
ReplyDeleteBut I am still waiting for someone to tell me why this supposed Pineapple Express is so cold. Some of them push temps over 60- and I am ready for spring! Here it is 40 degrees in Bothell Sunday morning.
ReplyDeleteThis is a driver problem, not a forecast problem. All that drivers have to do is to check the forecast and radar beforehand, be prepared with chains if necessary, and SLOW DOWN when conditions are wet, snowy, or icy.
ReplyDeleteDrivers have plenty of information about the conditions but all it takes is 1 or 2 who ignore it. I drive up to the pass several times a week and whenever chains are required there are always a few who slip past the checkpoint unchained and then end up spun out, stuck or jacknifed on the curve at the top, often blocking the exit when they make a desperate attempt to bail out.
ReplyDeleteThe snow is coming down right in front of your windshield. At some point, you don't need a WSDOT advisory board to tell you there is heavy snow. My solution would be to install speed cameras at various locations in the pass and actually enforce the posted advisory speeds during storms. Use cameras instead of putting more officers' lives in danger up there. Using more detailed weather and traffic data to better adjust the advisory speeds and chain requirements would definitely help as well.
ReplyDelete“The north cascade route is in dire need of safety mechanisms to promote ease of passage transit” (Merriweather, Lewis and Clark)
ReplyDeleteThe CO2 level was 430ppm on March 7th. The highest level ever recorded and higher than it has been in about 12 MILLION years. In the paleoclimate record this results in +4°C of warming over our 1850 baseline.
ReplyDeleteThis is just the beginning.
In 2023 the Terrestrial Land Sinks failed. The planetary biosphere only absorbed about 0.44Gt of our CO2 emissions, instead of the roughly 9Gt it had been absorbing. As a result of that, atmospheric CO2 levels increased by MORE THAN +3ppm in a single year.
In 2024, the atmospheric CO2 level also increased by more than +3ppm.
This rate of increase will cause CO2 levels to reach 530ppm in just 30 years.
How you view that information determines if you are a “Crisis Denier” or a “Collapse Realist”.
We have increased the Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) enough, the changes to the Climate System have degraded the biosphere to the point that it is loosing its ability to absorb and sequester CO2.
If the +3ppm yearly increase in the atmospheric CO2 level continues the consequences are very clear.
Starting at a CO2 level of 430ppm(CO2) in 2025.
The GHGs CO2 equivalent = +100ppm(CO2) (CH4 is at +1900ppb)
Albedo dimming forcing since 2014 = +100ppm(CO2) (per Hansen)
Our Current CO2(e) level = approximately +630ppm(CO2e)
Rate of CO2 Increase (RoCI) now approximately +3ppm per year.
A CO2(e) level of about 720ppm could be hit as early as 2050.
Paleoclimate data indicate that each 2XCO2 causes +8°C of warming.
180ppm to 360ppm caused +8°C of warming (we perceived it as +2°C of warming over our 1850 baseline of 280ppm).
Going from 360ppm to 720ppm seems increasingly likely to cause +8°C of additional warming. We will perceive that as +10°C of warming over our 1850 baseline of 280ppm(CO2).
NOW
We won’t get to +10°C by 2050, but it’s likely that amount of warming will be “locked in” at that point. A LOT of feedbacks will come into play pushing global temperatures up rapidly.
While Hansen thinks that “Global Warming in the Pipeline” could see temperatures of +10°C to +12°C as a result of these feedbacks. He also thinks this warming will take hundreds of years to play out.
I think we could see +10°C of warming before 2150
Driver problem. Not WADOT problem. WADOT cannot inspect every vehicle. If a car gets "wonky" then a fine needs to be given. Same thing in Colorado. Cliff, you can't educate everyone. Not everyone has the passion for up to date weather like you do. People are different and really only care what is in their wheelhouse. EXTREME weather is not usually in their wheelhouse. Some people know all the ins and outs of court cases. Some people know the ins and outs of online gaming. Some people know all the ins and outs of cooking food. All of those people wish you cared about their things just like you do. Not going to happen.
ReplyDelete