Concluding that if you can't beat them, join them, today I will start the first in a series of UW ClimateLab examinations on the effects of global warming on our region.
In western Washington, Olympia Airport is a good place to start, since there is less urbanization than central Puget Sound (see satellite image for the surroundings, below)
Starting with the annual highest spring temperatures (below), there is nearly no long-term trend (brown line). Very surprising......and disappointing for those who enjoy warmth in spring.
In contrast, there is modest warming for the average springtime high--by about 2°F since 1950.
The mean minimum temperature has warmed up by about the same amount (2°F)
Precipitation at Olympia? Up about an inch.
ClimateLab conclusions: No increase in extreme highs. A little moister. A Modest 2F increase in average highs and lows.
Now let's turn to Eastern Washington...and you can't go wrong with Ephrata, which is hardly in an urban neighborhood.
For the highest spring temperature, there has been no upward trend. Nada.
The mean daily high temperature has increased slowly, by about 2.5°F since 1950
Spring precipitation has increased slightly.
Virtually all stations in Washington State without urbanization or other issues are similar.
Extreme springtime highs are not going anywhere, and precipitation is modest. Average highs have gone up about 2°F in 75 years, without acceleration of the warming.
The ClimateLab will allow you to decide whether this is an existential threat or a crisis.
Happy April 1.
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Important Notice: My UW talk will be delayed until April 17.
Really interesting data. But I wonder—could we get a look at temperature variability? The one graph I keep hoping to see is the one that shows how much things are swinging from day to day or week to week relative to the historical trends. And on another note...I’d also love to see something connecting daily temperatures to changes in the energy budget. How much energy does a 1-degree swing actually involve?
ReplyDeleteIn summary my retirement plans to move to Tucson Az are still in effect.
ReplyDeleteNeat to see a localized version of this info. I have seen comparisons of urban vs non-urban weather stations from surfacestations.org that show obvious reasons why some stations get higher readings due to what is built up around them. I’ve heard it claimed that the US Climate Reference Network has data from pristine non-urban weather stations but this is not published because it doesn’t fit the “severe climate change” agenda. If Greenland went from livable to unlivable between 1300 AD and 1500 AD, then modest changes of 2 degrees over 75 years have a precedent and can also switch back.
ReplyDeleteYes, but those precedent events were all natural variation. This current temperature upswing almost certainly can be at least partly attributable to the actions of humans, and that's the troubling thing.
DeleteGood analysis confirming that global warming continues. Similar data in other regions, and as this short article shows (in line with many of your previous articles) global warming is real, as is the greenhouse effect. Yet there are many natural factors that also contribute, and we're hardly facing "climate catastrophe" as some want us to believe. https://normanjansen.substack.com/p/climate-catastrophe
ReplyDeleteEphrata (Eastern Washington) is in an area that is now, as compared to 1950, imbedded in a sea of green. Those green circles have a radius of about ¼ mile (~125 acres). The Beezley Hills are west of Ephrata and south of the ridge the irrigated area is called the Quincy Basin, water service is by the Quincy-Columbia Basin Irrigation District.
ReplyDeleteInteresting data. Now add some data about glaciers melting around the world, coral reefs dying (acres lost would be a good measure), increase in ocean temps and ocean acidification, increase in loss of pelagic sea birds due to reduction in key forage species just to expand the issue of climate change beyond the state of Washington (and the use of just temp and precip parameters) and to include other indicators of change. You are great with data and I enjoy your weather blogs.
ReplyDeleteCrisis, because the world we live in extends beyond our the borders of our small US state.
ReplyDeleteno crisis Jerry....and much of the world is like us....
DeleteMuch of the world has a maritime climate, is mid-latitude and is located next to a huge mass of cool water?
DeleteI thought you (or rather, the ClimateLab) were going to let us decide whether this is a crisis or not?
DeleteI've heard that the PNW is expected to be one of the least affected areas by global warming. I have no idea how true that is.
ReplyDeleteIt would be helpful if you did the same sort of detailed analysis for a few other areas, especially those deemed by some to be more critical.
Making conclusions based one one small area (The PNW) could be totally misleading.
Global temps. are up about 1.5 degree C. (2.7 F) in same time frame per NOAA/Berkeley Earth.
ReplyDeleteSo, NW appears to be below the average. Is this consistent with CMIP6 predictions?
Did no one comment on the “UW Climate Lab” April Fools joke?
ReplyDeleteDuring September of 2012 you did an interesting post on an NWS COOP observing site located on Orcas Island called Olga 2 SE (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/09/olga-2e.html). The rural setting and very long period of record made (unfortunately, it appears that observations ended on 4/30/2016) the station of particular interest for those engaged in the study of Western Washington climatology.
ReplyDeleteThere are still observation sites in the interior lowlands that report daily weather data to NWS Seattle with similarly rural settings as well as comparatively long and complete periods of record - I rather think your readers would enjoy learning about your perspectives on other, less well known, but fascinating and important lenses into local weather and climate.
Can you do the same for different elevations? There is no mistaking that the glaciers in North America are retreating. A 2 degree difference at sea level in Seattle is very different that at Paradise where 2 degrees can be the difference of snow or no snow. Also, a 2 degree difference within a tundra-environment can produce different results than the same change in Ephrata.
ReplyDeleteWhat I'm missing is: what is the normal (averaged over the last 1000 or 2000 years) temperature variability in a 100-years period? Do we expect a 2 F natural variability in 75 years or not? Why or why not?
ReplyDelete