The only nuclear power plant in Washington, the Columbia Generating Station, is now being refueled and repaired, having been taken offline on April 11.
There is a reason they decided to do this on April 11th and not during December or February.
Why? Because this is the season of rapid increase in wind energy in the Northwest and a time of substantial water inflow behind local dams, which should greatly assist in providing needed power.
Take a look at the BPA generation numbers of the past week. Green is wind generation.
Big increase on April 19th, with wind producing almost a third of the power provided by hydro (blue)
The origin of this wind energy bounty is from a recent increase in winds over eastern Washington, something illustrated by winds last week at Ellensburg. The sustained wind accelerated to over 25 knots (29 mph)!
Considering the wind speeds during the past year at Ellensburg, you can see the ramp-up of winds in March after a low-wind winter period (November to March). The wind energy season has begun and will continue through the summer.
But why, you ask. Why is winter so bad for wind energy generation? Surely, more storms are coming in during the November-February period, such as the famed bomb cyclones of last November.
But not in eastern Washington. Cool, dense air settles into the Columbia Basin, creating a dead-air zone over most of the wind turbines in our region (see wind farm map below). Western Washington is windy. Eastern Washington is not.
Strong winds east of the Cascades are associated with winds from the west.
Generally, this requires high pressure to the west of the Cascades and lower pressure to the east. As shown below, from January to February, the opposite situation exists, mainly due to low-pressure systems over the northeast Pacific and the Gulf of Alaska (sea level pressure is shown).
In contrast, the situation from April to May is reversed, with higher pressure over the ocean and lower pressure inland. Good for wind energy generation in eastern Washington!
With such a pressure pattern, air from western Washington can accelerate eastward, descending the eastern slopes of the Cascades or moving to the east through the Columbia Gorge.
Two recent UW WRF model forecasts show the wind pattern well (see below), with the yellow and orange colors indicating the strongest winds (on the eastern slopes of the Cascades and adjacent areas)
Ellensburg and the Columbia Gorge regions are favored because the Cascades are lower there. The strongest winds are in the early evening, following the daily warming in the Columbia Basin (which causes pressure to fall there, since warm air is less dense than cold air).
The bottom line: there should be plenty of wind power during the next months, reducing the need for nuclear energy.
Wind power is intermittent (it just fell off considerably). While the average wind power might equal the average nuclear power, it simply cannot replace it as a baseload source. We in the PNW use hydro power for peaking loads that occur twice daily. The peaks of wind power do not coincide with peaks in demand. Wind is essentially useless here (and elsewhere).
ReplyDeleteWind power might not be ideal as a baseload source of electricity, but maybe it can be a supplementary source, especially if it can be stored in giant batteries to be used at times when demand is higher?
DeleteYes it's essentially useless, but it makes people "feel" good, so it keeps getting support.
DeleteWho's going to tell the Dutch that : )
DeleteUtility-scale wind and solar PV generation provides energy that then allows BPA’s hydro system operators to store water, and then utilize the generation capacity of that water for diurnal and seasonal peaks. To IDC9’s point above, the FCRPS acts as the battery.
DeleteI guess 6-8% percent of our energy needs counts for nothing? Nobody HAS to buy power from PSE. Feel free to go off grid if you hate it so much?
DeleteVery informative post, and I don't doubt that seasonality of wind factored into the schedule. Maybe hydro too? This is the start of the spring run-off.
ReplyDeleteWe tried to hike up Rattlesnake Dance Ridge on April 19 in the Yakima River Canyon.Some intrepid hikers made it. I venture to say we experienced 35 mph gusts. A real kilt lifter!
ReplyDeleteThank goodness Washington has scientists taking actions based on data rather than non scientist climate lab journalists reporting the narrative funding sponsors want the data to say.
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting to learn that Eastern Washington's windy season is different from Western Washington's. I've always thought that might be the case since wind can be a factor in Eastern Washington's many wildfires (along with heat, lightning, and humans).
ReplyDeleteThank you for this and other blogs that explain that while wind energy can be bountiful, it can’t be relied upon during the high energy needing winter season.
ReplyDeleteCorrect.. it doesn't work when we need it most. It's kind of like our regressive tax or the highway toll system - the more it's needed, the less it's made available. This is how Washington State bureaucrats operate.
DeleteThere is not a time when "we need it most". When the wind is blowing, utilities can take advantage of it and not expend other types of fuel - gas, coal, reservoir capacity, nuclear fuel. When the wind is not blowing, we use the other fuels. Over the course of a year, we save money.
DeleteSorry Cliff, you are mistaken when you state, “ Why? Because this is the season of rapid increase in wind energy in the Northwest…”.
ReplyDeleteCGS’s biannual refueling cycle is scheduled in the spring when the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS) is at maximum generation due to the start of the spring run-off. Because BPA markets the power from both the FCRPS as well as CGS, when the hydro system is at maximum production in the spring, and NW heating loads have fallen substantially, CGS is not needed during the spring. Hence, the every other year maintenance and refueling in the spring. Also, CGS outage scheduling far predates the arrival of utility-scale wind power in the Pacific Northwest (~ 25 years ago).
The minimum temperature of 33F recorded at KBLI yesterday, 4/22, was the lowest temperature measured so late in the season at that location since 2012 and the 6th lowest on record for the period 4/22 - 5/31.
ReplyDeleteI attended a panel discussion concerning small modular reactors (SMR's) at the WSU Tri-city campus in Richland on Tuesday afternoon. These opinions were offered in the course of the discussion:
ReplyDelete-- A variety of small modular reactor designs are now under development in the US and abroad.
-- The various SMR technologies used by these designs are not new. Experimental and production reactors going back decades have already demonstrated the technology works.
-- The benefits of one SMR design approach over another approach have more to do with cost economics and operational flexibility than with the technical risks of each alternative technology.
-- China already has production reactors which employ many of the SMR technologies now under discussion in the US.
-- China has built all of its new reactors, both the large ones and the oncoming SMRs, on cost and on schedule.
-- More money has been spent on fusion in the last two years than had been spent in the previous seventy years. However, commercial fusion is at least ten years away. And it will always be at least ten years away far into the future.
-- New approaches to the technology of reprocessing spent nuclear fuel may reduce its high costs to a point where reprocessing of SNF once again comes under serious consideration in the US.
-- Here in the US, the problem of the high up-front capital cost of nuclear power is driven much more by industrial base issues, by supply chain issues, and by workforce availability issues than it is by issues with the burdens of government regulation.
-- No more large 1200 MW AP-1000 size reactors such as those recently built at Vogtle in Georgia will be constructed in the United States. It's just too difficult to concentrate that much financial and industrial resource in one project at one time.
-- Energy Northwest hopes to build an 80 MW Xe-100 SMR and get it operational between 2032 and 2035. Whether or not their Xe-100 project goes forward depends on how successful Dow Chemical in Louisiana is with building the very first Xe-100 prototype.
-- If Energy Northwest's first Xe-100 project goes forward and is successful, eleven more will be added over time, but only as demand for electricity grows.
Other opinions were voiced by several other knowledgeable people during the informal gathering session afterwards:
-- Wind and solar renewables require huge volumes of energy storage if these are to become reliable as baseload capacity throughout the year. This is a reality which the region's wind and solar advocates refuse to acknowledge.
-- Power planners in Montana and Wyoming are completely unaware that Washington State's plans for power decarbonization include covering large parts of Montana and Wyoming with wind turbines and solar panels.
-- Recent predictions of a huge increase in demand for electricity are not reliable as guides for power planning. Any increase in demand in the short term inside the US as a whole is likely to be met with new gas-fired capacity.
-- Wind and solar backed by batteries is a cult religion among the green politicians who control California, Oregon, and Washington. And also among the voters who elect them. These politicians will not allow new gas-fired capacity to be built in their states.
-- California, Oregon, and Washington will ignore the decision of the Trump administration to maintain America's reliance on fossil fuels and will not abandon their energy decarbonization goals. Or abandon their Net Zero & Green New Deal agendas.
Prices are often *negative* during the spring in the Columbia River Basin. During years with major snowpack, negative pricing can persist into June. With our current generation mix, Columbia Generating Station is not needed during the spring, even during drought years.
ReplyDeleteThis may change as a greater percentage of generation comes from renewable sources and fossil-fuel plants are taken offline. But even then - CGS is an old nuclear plant and lacks the ability to quickly ramp up and down to balance with wind generation.
The Columbia River hydro system is fantastic for balancing renewables... store water behind the dams when it is windy with little demand, then release it when load peaks and the wind dies down.
Cliff, I know this is off-topic but I was thinking about your PNW criteria for quantifying the duration of spring in the PNW (i.e. the period from when normal daily maximum temperatures reach 50F to when normal daily maximum temperatures reach 70F).
ReplyDeleteYour blog doesn’t specifically discuss the idea that this criteria is similar for the other seasons and that got be to wondering: In your system, is summer the period during which normal daily maximum temperatures are >70F; and is fall the period from when normal daily maximum temperatures fall to 70F but not <50F; and is winter the period during which normal daily maximum temperatures are <50F?
It’s an elegant idea to address a question with no definitive answer: How, exactly, do we distinguish the seasons?
If you would be so good as to respond to my comment, I would greatly appreciate it. I’d like to compare your criteria to some others that I’ve considered to see how closely they align.
Check the BPA chart today.
ReplyDeleteBtw - In recent years, the nuclear plant has had an every-other-year "spring" shutdown for many years. I think this is the 27th (don't quote me - look it up).
When I took pressure vessel design one thing that surprised me was that power generation vessels were only good for 30 heat - cold cycles before cracks start forming on the inner surface. And, with nukes you had the added problem of radiation embrittlement. Given that it is not possible to inspect the inside surface because of space/radiation problems it seems like this plant is on borrowed time.
DeleteI’ve noticed degraded air quality recently and it appears that a temperature inversion has set up with temperatures already approaching 60F at the ~3400’ summit of Sumas Mountain in the Whatcom County foothills at just before 9AM.
ReplyDelete