Wildfire acreage has been running far below normal over Washington State--- in fact, over the whole Pacific Northwest.
To demonstrate this, here are the latest WA DNR wildfire acreage statistics for Washington as of August 23. 2025 is well below normal.
All years show acres burned through August 23.
Or look at the map of large fires from the Northwest Fire Coordination Center (below).
Only three fires, and the two fires in Washington have been burning for a while and are only slowly growing.
In contrast to a lackluster wildfire season, we have had a warm, dry summer.
Check the deviation from normal for temperature (left panel) and precipitation (right panel) for the last 90 days over the Northwest (below).
Most of the region has been warmer than normal (yellow, orange, and red colors). It has been drier than normal over the region, except for the Olympic foothills and south-central Oregon.
How did they get this wrong and why?
It turns out that the connection between wildfires and meteorology is a bit more complicated than some media and climate advocacy groups suggest, and that simplistic arguments are simply inadequate.
Question 1: Why so dry and warm this summer?
The best science suggests that human-caused global warming has warmed the region by about 2°F and only caused slight drying.
Why so warm/dry this summer?
Below is the difference of sea-level pressure from normal from June 1 through August 22. Higher pressure than normal over the region, particularly offshore.
At 500 hPa (about 18000 ft, see below), the offshore high was very evident (red colors). This pattern is a warm and dry one for our region, with sinking air aloft.
No wonder we have been warmer and drier this summer. There is no evidence that such a pattern has anything to do with global warming (I have studied and published on this exact issue).
Question 2: Why so little wildfire activity when it has been warm and dry?
First, with the dry conditions during the late spring and summer, seasonal grass growth, an important fuel for regional wildfires, has been less than normal, which works against wildfire activity.
Below is a graphic from the Forest Service FuelCast website, showing below-normal values (yellow) over most of the region.
Second, lightning activity has been less over most of Washington this summer due to the dry conditions. Below is the difference in lightning between this summer and last summer over Washington, southern BC, and northern Oregon.
Most of the area has had less lightning this year, particularly the fire-prone eastern slopes of the Cascades. (blue colors indicate less lightning).
Image produced by Katrina Virts, Research Scientist, SNWG MO Deputy Project Scientist/Assessment LeadNASA MSFC Office of Data Science and Informatics (ODSI), The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Lightning is an important initiator of regional wildfires, particularly at higher elevations that are difficult for firefighters to access. This is important.
Third, with high pressure offshore, the winds have been affected, since pressure controls the winds. Strong downslope winds on the eastern side of the Cascades are often associated with cool air moving into western Washington behind upper-level troughs, something suppressed this year because of the high pressure.
Since the strong winds can contribute to the rapid spread of wildfire, lesser winds reduce the wildfire threat. Take a look at the sustained winds at Wenatchee, WA, last summer (top) and this summer (bottom). Fewer strong winds this summer (the red line is 23 kt)
Fourth, the technology of wildfire firefighting has advanced dramatically during the past few years. A series of high-resolution cameras, with AI interpretation, has been distributed over the region.
Increased use of high-resolution satellite data is also providing far better fire intelligence. Drones are being used to discover and surveil fires.
Increased coordination with aircraft used for suppression has allowed more rapid response to new wildfires.
Analagous to the Ukraine war, new technology has radically changed the battle against wildfires.
The bottom line is that the idea of warmer and drier means more wildfire acreage is simplistic. Other factors can be equally or more important.
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I for one am very grateful that this year's fire season has been calmer this year so far than in previous years recently. Considering how active things were around Memorial Day, particularly around Leavenworth, I was concerned that this was going to be a very bad season. Obviously, we are still in late August, with September and October still to come, so things could, unfortunately, take a turn for the worse. We can't take the calmer season we've had for granted. We've been very fortunate in the grand scheme of things so far.
ReplyDeleteHere is more information of the fire detection cameras. {Thanks for the heads-up.}
ReplyDeletehttps://www.dailyfly.com/2025/07/16/video-feeds-from-washington-states-wildfire-detection-cameras-now-available-online/
Not even Labor Day, and you’ve already broken out the champagne on the 2025 fire season. You’re nothing if not bold, Cliff. I agree with you that heat and drought are far from the only factors. But your first chart is misleading. It is not valid to compare the 2025 half-season to previous full seasons.
ReplyDeleteJerry..you are making serious errors. The chart is NOT misleading....all the stats are for exactly the same period....through two days ago. Second, I am not making any predictions about Labor Day or anything else. Just explaining about WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED.
DeleteIt has not been a bad fire season so far, as measured by acres burned. However, the potential for a bad fire season was there, as shown by your maps of temperature and dryness. To get a bad fire season, you must first get a prolonged period of dryness and usually heat to dry out the fuels. We don't get large acres-burned years when the season has been cool and moist. This season, as in many of our recent seasons, we had dryness and warm temperatures in spades. This is a necessary condition but not always a sufficient condition with respect to acres burned, as you point out. For the east of Cascade areas, you usually also need the ignition from dry lightning storms. This is the factor that has usually resulted in the largest east side fires and the big acreage-burned years. For the west side forests, you usually need one or more strong, dry east wind periods occurring when fires are present or one starts during the windy period. This year so far, and in some of our recent past seasons which were also warm and dry, Washington, and to a lesser extent Oregon, has lacked the dry lightning ignition sources and the strong east wind periods, which is the main reason that acres burned has been down recently. Looking at the fires we did have this year, consider that the Pomas fire in Eastern Washington was started by about the only dry lightning storm we have had this summer and early in the season, in June, in a high mountain area that would usually not get a fire this early in the season. On the west side, The Bear Gulch fire is the largest fire in the Olympic Peninsula since the 1951 Forks fire, and unlike the Forks fire, it spread without a significant east wind period, a sign of how dry it was this year. Imagine what could happen to this fire, which is still burning, if we should get a strong east wind period in the near future. So I don't think the organizations that you mentioned were wrong about this potentially being a bad fire season. They were right that the predicted warmth and dryness verified. It is harder to make on long range forecast of the other factors that must also occur to result in a big fire year with respect to acres burned. .
DeleteVery interesting post - well explained. Theories must be based on reality, and your grip on reality (the facts) means a lot. Thanks for doing what you do, here (the blog), "teach"!
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of fires and smoke I have been unable to get the NOAA “Visualization on Interactive Map” feature to work on the NOAA HRRR website “https://apps.gsl.noaa.gov/smoke/“ for the last couple of months. Has something changed with this site? Is there another website where I can find a good smoke forecast for this area?
ReplyDeleteUtilities are also working hard to avoid being ignition sources. As PG&E has shown, it can be a huge source of financial risk for them. They're much more proactive now shutting down lines when fire conditions are hazardous. https://www.pse.com/en/pages/Wildfire-prevention/enhanced-power-line-settings
ReplyDeleteThe 4th point mentioning technology to aid rapid response is a huge factor in my opinion. The last couple of days there have been isolated lightning strikes in the Cascades. Those are easily pinpointed, and it looks like DNR has been aggressive in investigating and engaging these potential fire starts while they are still small. It seems like not too many years ago, DNR would spend about a half a day trying to decide what to name a fire instead of just putting it out. Also, in recent years our state has been more aggressive and efficient in processing state mobilization requests for firefighting personnel and equipment. I've noticed a few fires this year where state mobilization has been requested early and approved quickly. These fires did not get the chance to escape initial attack and become the types of fires that make headlines. All of this is contributing to a light fire year.
ReplyDeleteAs was previously mentioned, however, it is quite unusual and remarkable that we had a westside fire escape initial attack and grow to nearly 10,000 acres in the absence of an east wind event despite aggressive suppression efforts. With current fuel conditions on the west side, an east wind event like the one in September 2020 could be catastrophic.
KBLI reported 5 consecutive days with high temperatures of at least 80F between 8/22-26/2025. The most recent equivalent occurrence was 8/13-17/2023. The all-time record for consecutive such days is 7, which was recorded from 7/25-31/2022.
ReplyDelete