If you have an umbrella, put it away...you won't need it for a while.
Find your sunglasses...you will need them.
A major mid-winter break from the rain and murk has now begun...and tomorrow, Tuesday, will be the warmest day of the period. Some locations will even get to 60°F, but perhaps not where you would expect it.
Consider the forecast surface air temperature at 2 PM tomorrow over Washington--close to the time of warmest temperatures in winter (shown below).
Western Washington is warm, with some locations reaching the upper 50s...and some lucky folks into the lower 60s.
I know what you are wondering. Can you trust this forecast?
Good question...particularly after the disastrous forecasts of a big windstorm last week. As I have discussed before, we need to consider the multiple predictions using ensemble systems, and the UW has one of the best.
Here is the prediction of the many forecasts of the UW system for Seattle. Nearly all are on board for the warmth. You can bank on this one-day wonder.
But don't worry, extended model forecasts show the precipitation coming back.
And I certainly wouldn’t want to mention the use of apophasis!
ReplyDeleteThanks for the new word!
DeleteYou go through the trouble of showing a 300+ hour GFS forecast and it's KUCHERA! Shame, shame. Give the people what they want, 10:1!!
ReplyDeleteHop you are right about the snowfall coming in late Jan.
ReplyDeleteCliff is good to caution any reliance on the long range forecast for snow. The long range outlooks issued late last year for this winter for the Pacific Northwest called for a La Nina pattern bringing above normal moisture and below normal temperatures. The moisture forecast has been accurate so far but the temperature outlook has not, as this winter so far in much of Eastern Washington has been near record warm. The moisture outlook may continue to be accurate for the rest of the winter but unless colder temperatures arrive, any snow may continue to be confined to the higher elevation peaks with the snowpack in the mid and lower elevations continuing to run below normal.
ReplyDeleteIn this century so far, winter season temperatures at Wenatchee have been below normal in about half of the La Nina years, and only one La Nina winter, 2016-17, had temperatures significantly below normal. All El Nino winters this century have had above normal temperatures.
Sounds nice, but does it mean we can expect a pollution inversion? Here in the valley our excitement for winter high pressure sunny spells often wears off quickly when the air gets yucky.
ReplyDeleteThe GFS is as reliable as a crackhead on payday.
ReplyDeleteI almost felt a little bit of comfortable warmth today, and then my bike ride ended with a 25 minute wait for the bus. What warmth I felt was immediately replaced with cold discomfort as the fading sun disappeared behind clouds.
ReplyDeleteLoving the dry, calm, somewhat-sunny (on the coast at least) weather! Much appreciated after all the rain we've had in recent weeks.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to pretend I didn't see that snow graphic.
I recall a few days of similar way-out-there snowfall forecasts back in November — can’t recall if it was GFS or Euro — that turned out to be a rug pull.
ReplyDeleteA quick trip to look at the ensemble forecasts very quickly slapped a “kick me” sign onto the operational forecast’s back. Nothing new about that story.