Get your umbrella handy, find those wool mittens, and look for your skis.....an extended period of cool, wet weather is ahead.
Let's start with the predicted precipitation (below). The western U.S. is going to be very wet.
The predicted totals through next Tuesday afternoon are impressive, particularly over California. But Washington and Oregon get their share.
The accumulated totals one week later are even more impressive, with the Northwest getting substantial amounts.
Temperatures will be colder than normal over the next ten days...from BC to southern California (blue and green colors indicate below normal temperatures)
Cold and wet means snow...and lots of it...for the entire West Coast. Here are the totals through February 25th. Let's say that skiers will have big smiles on their faces. So will those concerned about snowpack.
What is producing this wet/cold/snowy bounty?
Answer: a total reversal of the upper-level pattern, with troughing (low pressure) along the West Coast.
Tuesday morning? An even stronger low off southern Oregon.
You will not believe what I will show you next. Sunday evening on 22 February, a crazy strong low is STILL THERE.
What will the media, such as the Seattle Times Climate Lab, have to say about this reversal of the meteorological situation?
I asked Grok to give me its best estimate of a future Seattle Times headline based on the current forecast. This is what it came up with:
Announcement
I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Saturday for Patreon supporters. Will answer questions and talk more about the snow situation.
Climate C1nate Change ????
ReplyDeleteSeattle Times: "if it wasn't for the last two weeks of February, we'd be in a drought". Seen it after every flood for the last 40 years.
ReplyDeleteI really hope it pans out. It seems like all winter it's been "...but next week the snow is coming. We mean it this time!"
ReplyDeleteThat’s not true at all. The forecasts have been largely correct all winter
DeleteI spent my career for 50 years working with and on mountain top radio sites all over the PNW. There have been many times when we could access sites for work in late winter, like now, and through February but then got snowed out from April sometimes into early June. This made scheduling work at the sites difficult. The only thing about Mother Nature we know is she will do what she does and we need to adapt!
ReplyDeleteVery true Joe. People cuss at droughts and fires and floods, but of course what Mother Nature does is always exactly as it should be.
DeleteMy Great Grandma came here in the 1840s and in her journals talks about snow in Mima Prairie area during I think 1863 that was so deep in April and lasted so long that most people's cows died. My family's cattle lived because they fed them cedar branches.
DeleteGoJoGO: That wild winter was actually 1862. Likely the coldest and snowiest in NW history. Snow was on the ground in the lowlands into the spring. People were starving and eating boiled hay in SW Washington. California and Oregon saw the greatest floods of all time. At least seven major rivers in OR and CA saw their highest peak floods, never to be exceeded even to this day.
DeleteAt Noon on Valentine's Day, Crystal Mountain has gotten 2" with flurries in progress. Plenty of autos at Stevens and White passes but not much new snow.
ReplyDeleteThe big High is at 157°W while the Low is at 39 1/2°N.; west of Fort Bragg.
Midnight should have the Low off the CA/OR border.
Then, it appears to head south again. Yo-yo.
Looks like snow anticipation may be satisfied on Thursday the 19th.
Oh, man, woke up to second day of sunshine and readjusted my Spring expectations. Migrating birds are coming back, saw the first flowering plum in the neighborhood. I was Happy, dog gone it. And now This. Of course, living in the PacNW and not liking moisture falling from the sky is kinda silly. Guess I won’t open the values to the outside faucets just yet.
ReplyDelete