It is frustrating to read stories by the ClimateLab folks in the Seattle Times that are simply not true.
Another story was published yesterday that predicts a major drought year ahead due to poor snowpack.
A poor snowpack driven by climate change.
The problem: their claims are easily shown to be false
The Truth
In December, the region was hit by several strong atmospheric rivers that produced massive precipitation.
Soils became saturated, rivers flooded, and all regional reservoirs were filled to above normal levels.
Atmospheric rivers are associated with warm conditions, thus working against snowpack accumulation. And January was relatively dry and warm aloft due to high pressure aloft.
Consider the critically important Yakima River reservoir system.
The heavy rain caused a huge increase in reservoir storage (blue line). Higher than ANY TIME OF LAST YEAR and equivalent to early May levels in a normal year.
Yakima water storage will easily reach 1 million acre-feet just with rain and snow melt during the last month, resulting in a full reservoir system.
To provide 100% of the water requested, the Yakima System needs to deliver 2.3 million acre feet, with the remainder coming from melting snowpack AND late spring/early summer rainfall.
We are only halfway through the snow accumulation season in the Cascades, and there is PLENTY of opportunity to gain much more snowpack.
Currently, the snowpack in the Yakima Basin is roughtly 48% of normal, and this percentage will only increase...and substantially.
Even if there was no additional snow this year, just rain, one would expect about 750,000 acre-feet from melting the snow that is now on the ground.
So WITH NO SNOW, we would get to 1.75 million acres feet. 76% of normal.
Snowpack percentage of normal yesterday for the Yakima drainage.
But we are only about halfway through the snow accumulation season, and models are going for a cooler/snowier period ahead. For example, the European Center model predicts lots of mountain snow through February 22:
Extended seasonal forecasts are for a wet spring with normal temperatures (see below).
That means plenty of snow.
Moving beyond the Yakima River situation, snowpack is above normal over the eastern slopes of the North Cascades, and the snowpack supporting the important Columbia Basin is normal (and the water level behind the Grand Coulee dam is above normal).
Regional reservoirs are in very good shape.
No drought.
Even Worst
As bad as all the unsupportable Seattle Times claims of regional drought, there is clear misinformation about the cause of the lack of snow last month.
The Seattle Times claims it is because of warming due to climate change:
Substantial portions of the article push the global warming origin of the thin snowpack.
This is demonstrably untrue.
The last month was warm and dry because of the persistent ridge of high pressure over the region.
The map below shows the anomaly (or difference) from normal of the heights (equivalent to pressure) at 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft).
A very strong ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. and an intense trough (low pressure) over the eastern U.S.
This pattern suppressed snow over the Western U.S. and ENHANCED snow over the East.
Such patterns have little to do with global warming (there is a VERY large published literature on this).
The claim of the Seattle Times that our low snowpack is connected with global warming is simply false, with the impact of global warming on regional snow quite modest, something proven by the lack of downward trend in the observed Northwest snowpack over the past decades (see below, SWE is snow water equivalent, the amount of water in the snowpack).
The continued deceptive information from the Seattle Times on climate issues is very worrisome and shows the dangers of journalism funded by advocacy groups (the Seattle Times Climate Lab sponsors).
Over many years, the agriculturalist in the Yakima region have planted crops that need more late-season water. An assumption of a uniform probability distribution is not appropriate for rain and snow. A probability distribution with long tails is appropriate.
ReplyDeleteMaybe the Seattle Times ClimateLab folks could take a crack at the extended (in time and space) cold and snow back East. The sub-headline will read: "Global warming causes cold."
My friends and relatives in NY, PA, OH, & MI are experiencing a brutal winter. It is a winter much like I remember as a kid in Western Pennsylvania. Thanksgiving week of 1950 is famous: "The Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950. I missed the 1914 storm.
I feel like the word "drought" is losing all meaning. The last article in the ST also talked about it being "hot" this winter, which also strains the definition of the word.
ReplyDeleteI've never seen Lake Keechelus so full in February
ReplyDeleteTaking a casual glance at Lake Keechelus tells us nothing about drought, snowpack, or climate change.
DeleteI'm glad to hear that the lake is full. I hope that means the farmers in Central Washington will have all the water they need to raise their animals and grow their crops this year.
DeleteThis has happened over & over again. Actually I think that The Times is a relatively good source of the news compared to online news much of which is AI-created. However, their weather/climate "news coverage" is mostly "a disaster." Thanks for clearing up the issue once again. I do admit looking forward to a cool period, however, because we've not really had such an episode this season.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your assessment. The Seattle Times is generally a good source of reliable, trustworthy news. Their "climate lab" is a glaring exception.
DeleteHard to imagine the Times is only deceptive about this.
ReplyDeleteThanks for giving it to us straight, Cliff. Much appreciated.
ReplyDeleteRegardless the cause, the ST article cites three WA state officials who report significant drought conditions. Are you saying they are wrong?
ReplyDeleteYes, they are wrong. Facts are clear.
DeleteOne of The seven vials in the book of the apocalypse causes the sun to go overdrive and man will blister and bake. The Times will say..."we told you it was a global warming trend in embryonic stage"
ReplyDeleteNot to worry though, the seventh vial sinks the west coast in an earthquake . The seer Branham prophesied this in the 40's" His face is superimposed as the Idaho map line looking down at Calif. (big forehead) he'll sink it yet
I am sure the growers in the Yakima valley are hoping you are correct about them not having to worry about enough irrigation water for the coming season. However, you are not correct about your statement that the northern Cascade east slopes have above normal snowpack at this time. You need only to ask skiers who are finding a barely adequate snow pack to ski on at Mission Ridge or Stevens Pass, or those who are still waiting for Loup Loup in the Okanogan or Badger Mt. ski areas to open. Only a couple of the highest elevation snow measuring sites in the north Cascades have above normal snowpack at this time. The majority of the lower and middle elevation areas are near 50% or less of normal. In Wenatchee, only 1/2 inch of snow has fallen at my location this winter, the least snowfall up to this date that I have witnessed in my 62 winters here and very likely the least of record going way back into the 1900s.
ReplyDeletewxman.... look at the eastern side of the North Cascades....the snotel numbers are quite good.....further south, less.
DeleteSkiing on liquid water just doesn’t compare with skiing on snow though…
ReplyDeleteReservoirs are looking great, but that's only one piece of what makes a drought. Not the defining factor by any means. But we are "fortunate" we received near-record flooding in December to at least give the reservoirs a good start.
ReplyDeleteDoes the lab ever discuss water use by the data centers? I had read that the Wenatchee area has several data centers. I've heard that they use and waste a lot of water.
ReplyDeleteI don't recall any coverage off the top of my head, but it is an issue that should be looked into as the number of data centers continues to grow. And its not just Wenatchee. Quincy also has a few data centers. I wonder how much water they use.
DeleteWe lived up to this point without so many data centers. I'd be perfectly happy if we did not build any more. I will store my data privately, thank you very much.
DeleteRCW 43.83b 400 requires water storage to be below 75% of normal before the projected impacts can be defined as "drought".
ReplyDeleteCliff shows that the sensitive Yakima system is already at 76% for the total water-year. Therefore, a drought designation can not even be investigated in Yakima this water-year.
Barring some tragic loss of water or gross mismanagement, there can not legally be a drought there.
Another persuasive and thorough post by Prof. Mass.
ReplyDeleteIt is obvious that the Seattle Times "reporters" are failing to investigate the validity of whatever press releases they use to prepare their "reports."
What astounds me is that they never seek out Prof. Mass to comment on what they are reporting. That failure demonstrates conclusively that they are driven by ideology, not facts.
If I recall correctly you have been advocating adding to storage capacity to counteract the impact of global warming on snowpack levels. This post seems to indicate things will be fine with existing storage even though this year appears to be preview of our future.
ReplyDeleteI think building more reservoir capacity is an excellent idea, considering the planet is slowly warming.
DeleteThose orcas and salmon will just have to tough it out, right?
DeleteWell, I think this will all be decided for us by the end of snow accumulation season. Cliff will give us that update.
ReplyDeleteWhat this makes me wonder about is receding and disappearing glaciers.
Cliff can you cover how glaciers are built/maintained and how snowpack contributes?
Also, does late season catch-up of snow accumulation differ from snow accumulation distributed through the whole snow accumulation season in terms of melt rate and keeping volumes up in reservoirs further into summer ?
My opinion is that we WERE in a drought without the ability to verify any snowfall, but reservoir storage is sticking around. My main thing would be soil moisture, as it plays a role in how agriculturally we consider drought. WA state requires us to be above the 75% threshold (we aren't YET) but we most likely will thanks to a decent amount of mountain snow. We most likely will be in a minor drought at worst. It's dependent partially on previous years as well, since we do need to recover from any losses. We're probably fine though. In January, since we couldn't tell when the blocking high would break, being in a drought was a fair comment, but now that we're back to normal, and with high amounts, the drought is ending. That's how I personally would've phrased it.
ReplyDelete