The recent rain has done something amazing: filled many of our reservoirs to full, months ahead of time
Levels of fill that normally require snowpack melt during spring.
Consider the all-important Yakima Reservoirs (below), which are now at levels normally only reached in mid-June. Amazing.
What about Spada Lake, the massive storage reservoir for Everett? It is now full! (blue line is this year, brown line is full)
The Northwest River Forecast Center's predictions for local streamflow are getting more favorable for regional rivers, as illustrated by the 120-day prediction of streamflow for mid-summer (below), Most are around 100% of normal
To provide a specific example, there is the extended forecast for the Yakima River. Black is the predicted for this year. Much above normal (green line) into May and near normal during mid-summer.
Bottom line: I am cautiously optimistic about our Washington State water resources this summer and that there will be no drought.
And yet yesterday another gloom and doom article in the Seattle Times about the low snow pack and how climate change is hurting our water supply. They just can't let it go.
ReplyDeleteThank you for notifying us of the Seattle Times article. I read it, and it has this to say:
Delete"Washington needs snowpack, rather than rain, in the winter because it effectively serves as a reservoir unto itself. As spring turns to summer, the snow melts and drains into our human-made reservoirs, stretching water supply well into the driest part of the year.
But as climate change forces temperatures to rise, more precipitation over the region falls as rain rather than snow. Reservoirs aren’t able to capture that water in those moments because they’re generally too full."
Nothing in that statement is untrue. Full reservoirs in March do not guarantee an abundant water supply in August. For that we need both, full reservoirs and abundant snowpack.
Jerry... I am sorry, but there are problems with the ST and your statements. Generally, the reservoirs are NOT full this early...they fill in spring from snowmelt. But we had so much rain that they filled months early! And spring rain will help keep them full. And there WILL be snowmelt as well. Snowpack is about 50% of normal. so that melt will help keep the reservoirs up. Bottom line....the water situation is not serious and the simplistic snowpack arguments are not correct.
DeleteI personally worked with the regional utilities on how to react to low snowpack years. They balance flood control, water storage for summer use, ferc mandated flow rates for fish, and power generation.
DeleteOn low snowpack years the operators decrease discharge in the late winter and spring so that the reservoirs are full early in the season. They could fill the western Washington reservoirs every year at this time, but keep them low at this time of the year typically because the later snowmelt will risk flooding in May and June. They need buffer when there’s high snowpack for flood control.
We need to understand that intelligent people manage the levels and flows of our water system, and they chose the current level.
Exactly. It is evident that some informed folks are managing the reservoirs...then know that they don't have to keep the space for snowmelt flood control, so they are saving the water.
DeleteEngineering doesn't get the credit it deserves. The water we drink even now was engineered to arrive to us from miles and miles away.
DeleteAs usual the Climate Lab writers at Seattle Times have a different story to tell. Their narrative is predicting severe drought, based on lack of snowpack in the mountains.
ReplyDeleteI know...they are obviously wrong.
DeleteCliff, water storage is obviously very important, and it's good to know WA should be in good shape from that standpoint for the upcoming dry season. Y'all should be very glad that the region received healthy precip amounts overall in conjunction with the very warm, terrible snow year. Many other regions of the western USA were not so fortunate. In conjunction with warm conditions, below to well-below average precip also occurred. A bad combination.
DeleteOne additional important thing to consider in WA, y'all have a vast area of wildland that is going to be drier than normal going through the long summer season ahead. The massive acreage between 2.5K and 5K which normally harbors beneficial snowpack deep into late spring, will be drying out much earlier than usual. Reservoir storage is good for human consumption, but it does not do anything for the wildlands.
We'll see what happens as the coming months unfold. But a lack of snowpack doesn't automatically mean we're going to have drought. There are more factors at play, such as how much rainfall we get this Spring.
DeleteKBLI has recorded its second wettest March on record and the rainiest March since 1950.
ReplyDeleteNot sure about drought; even Dr. Mass notes his optimism is cautious. What is worrying is how the wet early spring combined with low snowpack might influence the fire season.
ReplyDeleteNo shit the reservoirs are full months ahead of time. The snow has melted and flowed down into reservoirs. Having full reservoirs in late June is vastly different than having full reservoirs in late March. The cascade snowpack is the states largest reservoir, and the snowpack below around 4,500ft is GONE in most places. In two weeks the snowpack below around 5,500ft will be gone. Cliff with all due respect, you should start a futures market on Polymarket on the WA state reservoir water level on July 1st and you can put your money where your mouth is pertaining the drought we are in. I'd gladly take a few hundred bucks from you.
ReplyDeleteChad...what you are saying is demonstrably untrue. The reservoirs were mainly filled by heavy rain NOT SNOWMELT. This has been a poor snowpack year...I get that. But heavy rain has filled the reservoirs...which will save us. ....cliff
DeleteBased on Cliff' comment regarding your post, I'll take that bet.
DeleteNo mention about the snow pack above 5500 ft which is actually closer to normal and even above normal in a few locations?
DeleteIn a typical year, snowpack gives water managers confidence and flexibility for reliable and manageable inflows for refill. Given, many reservoirs are filling early from recent rains, the remaining snowmelt will allow reservoirs engineers to keep the reservoirs topped off longer, if it turns dry early – before the normal dry summer. IMO, snowmelt is not even needed for reservoir refill, if there the spring is wet enough. Snowmelt only lasts through May or early June in a typical year.
DeleteI have never seen it happen, but the only way we can get into a drought in western WA is: little or no snowpack in spring with a dry spell late winter and all spring. We almost did that in 2015 (<10% snowpack) and dry pattern – but two moderate rainstorms in March saved the day and filled reservoirs.
BTW: snowmelt floods in western WA (not the Columbia R) are always meager compared to winter atmospheric river (AR) floods. The basins here are conditioned for the huge winter AR floods. I would argue even the big Columbia River spring snowmelt floods, need an added rain component to really be monsters like the infamous May/June flood of 1948.
Scott8, >5500 feet must be a pretty small fraction of our total surface area, even when focusing in the mountain ranges. The median elevation in our state is 1700 feet.
DeleteGood reply Jer. I wanted to point that concern out as well. Checking out the SWE situation in WA, or just about any region of the western USA, the snowpack situation is in very poor shape. In WA, you have to seriously cherry pick to find any SWE situation that resembles good. If you are looking at select high elevation sites, what percentage of land does that represent overall?
DeleteThe vast majority of WA SNOTEL sites are around 50% of median SWE.
Crazy how Moscow, ID can have record flooding and then be in severe drought 2 weeks later according to the US drought monitor. Something is not adding up.
ReplyDeleteFlooding doesn't necessarily fix a drought. It's more complex than that.
DeleteFlooding might not fix a drought. But it must certainly put a dent in it.
DeleteExpect a complete hashup with Mayor Katie Wilson's abrupt firing of Seattle City Light CEO Dawn Lindell (25 years dams utility experience) and her appointment of Dennis McLerran—a former EPA regional administrator and climate-focused litigator at Cascadia Law Group (zero years dams utility experience). Even Seattle City Council are concerned his lack of experience running a hydro utility will not end well. https://www.cascadiadaily.com/2026/mar/25/mistrust-evident-at-skagit-hearing-over-seattle-city-light-agreement/
ReplyDeleteCliff, let me know if this is entirely off base. This is way look at it.
ReplyDeleteIf look at the charts, resevoirs are usually low(er) through winter, spring. This from usage during summer months and in typical years water being held in as snow in lower/mid elevations until spring thaw. However, this year water being locked up as snow didnt happen and rain filled them early. What usually tops them off mid late summer is high elevation snow that melts. This is what I dont like about our monitoring stations. They are generally in lower/mid elevations. While basins overall are low snow pack that is skewed due to station placement. I believe that above 6000ft snowpack is ABOVE normal. If this is corrrct we WILL get enough water to have through the summer months.
Am I wrong?
Yakima has a manmade problem- water rights laws means about 70% get whatever they need and this year they will be fine. Bit junior rights holders- e.g. Roza likely will only get 1/2 of what they want. Without this legal allocation the supply likely ends almost at 100% of capacity. In last 50 years the snowpack-swe- was at current 50% level 5 times, but the reservoirs have never been at 141% of normal this late
ReplyDeleteYakima has a 2 tier allocation- so not a climate issue- they give water depending on age old water laws. Only the junior rights holders seem at risk- like Roza- who had reductions in each of the 5 times in last 50 years the snow (swe) was this low
ReplyDeleteCan’t two things be true? We are experiencing winters impacted by global warming, and we may be ok on water supply this year?
ReplyDelete