Precipitation at some times of the year is more valuable than at others.
Here in the Pacific Northwest, March and April precipitation is by far the most prized and valued.
Fortunately, the latest forecasts suggest we will enjoy bountiful amounts during this period, which should be a relief to those worried about the water supply.
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It can moisten the soil and help fill the rivers before our dry summers.
It can build up water behind our dams and in our reservoirs, providing water and power during the summer.
For years without good snowpack (e.g., 2024), it can provide needed water.
It doesn't make much difference if we fill our reservoirs with melted snow or spring precipitation.
As you can see from the average cumulative precipitation at Olympia (below), quite a bit of the annual precipitation at this station occurs in March and April (between the red bars).
Bottom line: it is not too late to get substantial precipitation, even in a normal year.
With La Niña rapidly weakening, there is no reason to expect that we will get a persistent dry pattern, as in January.
I suspect our summer water situation will be fine.
La Niña is associated with persistent dry patterns in the PNW in winter??
ReplyDeleteIt rained all day in Marysville Everett area yesterday Dense soaking kind too
ReplyDelete"It doesn't make much difference if we fill our reservoirs with melted snow or spring precipitation."
ReplyDeleteIt does make a difference if you happen to live in a part of the state without reservoirs (Olympic Peninsula). An area like relies on snowpack for spring/summer irrigation.
Mike... there are several reservoirs on the Olympic Peninsual..cliff
DeleteYou are correct. I should have been more specific in my comment. Clallam County, the Sequim area, relies on the Dungeness River for ag irrigation. In that respect, we are reliant on snowpack to get us through the summer. A reservoir is planned but it will be years before it is online.
DeleteI hope they do get that planned reservoir built. We need to boost our water storage capacity.
DeleteThe same is true with weather in May and June. This can help make up for a low-snow year.
ReplyDeleteBut I do feel like these long rang forecasts have been notoriously unreliable. January 7th: "Based on these and other statistics, a projection of slightly above normal snowpack in the Cascades is probably a decent prediction." The winter isn't over but I think it is fair to say we will fall short of average by quite a bit. February 13: "Cold, Wet, and Snowy Period Ahead". This ended up being a minor event. It had little impact on the snow pack (and ski resorts). In general, the long range predictions are just not that accurate.
In contrast, the forecasters are suggesting cold and wet weather starting *Monday*. That's four days away. Unlike a similar forecast that they ended up essentially rescinding about four days out, there is nothing in the forecast discussion to suggest hesitation. They are quite confident it will happen. As a result, I have plenty of confidence that we will get a good set of snow storms in the mountains (finally).
This feels similar to 2005 when county exec Ron Sims was moving towards a King County "Global Warming" drought emergency just before we had an amazingly wet spring. https://apacikradyo.com.tr/arsiv-icerigi/global-warming-conditions-prompt-sims-lay-out-king-countys-immediate. Global warming is a fact, but it doesn't explain every weather event.
ReplyDelete