The media is going wild about the potential for a SUPER El Nino developing this year.
An El Niño of potentially unequaled strength with profound consequences for humanity.
El Nino 101
As a reminder, El Niño and its close counterpart, La Niña, are associated with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, specifically in the area known as the Niño 3.4 region (see map below).
Why do we care about the surface temperatures of the central tropical Pacific?
Because it reveals the state of an important natural atmospheric/ocean oscillation: ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, in which warm ocean surface water sloshed back and forth over 4-7 year periods (see below).
The warm water enhances cumulus and thunderstorm activity above, which in turn influences the weather of the entire planet (see below).
Some terminology:
A weak El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area .5-1 °C above normal
A moderate El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area 1-1.5 °C above normal
A strong El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area 1.5-2 °C above normal
A super El Niño has the Niño 3.4 area exceeding 2°C above normal
Predicting El Niño is important because it has a significant impact on the meteorology of the U.S. West Coast and offers the only reliable source of forecasting skill for extended period predictions.
There is little correlation between El Niño and our summer weather, but El Niño winters in the Northwest tend to be warmer than normal with lesser snowfal.
There is a problem we face right now in predicting the El Niño situation next winter: the El Niño Spring Forecast Barrier.
A reason why the media needs to be very careful about over hyping things right now.
It turns out that El Niño forecasts made in late winter and spring are often unskillful, while predictions made after July are much better.
Furthermore, statistical prediction models are generally less skillful than dynamical models that actually simulate ocean and atmospheric conditions (see below).
With all that said, what do the latest El Niño forecasts indicate? Is there an intense SUPER El Niño in our future? The predictions are below for a wide range of models.
All models indicate that La Niña (cooler than normal tropical temperatures) will soon be over.
The statistical models (green lines) are predicting a weak El Niño by this fall, while the more skillful dynamical models are going for a weak to moderate El Niño. Few are predicting a Super El Niño.
There is one modeling system that is going for a "Super" El Nino, the European Center's SEAS5 model (below). It is the source of many of the breathless headlines in the media.
The bottom line?
We are certainly moving towards El Niño conditions, but I would be careful about assuming that the Super El Niño prediction of the European Center is correct, due to the spring forecast barrier and the larger differences between other modeling system forecasts.
But the adjective "SUPER" sells papers! Well, maybe "clicks" now.....
ReplyDeleteIt seems as though they like to use vocabulary. That is just going to be as scary as possible to the public. I do wish someone would discuss how weather modification techniques may play into forecasting models.
ReplyDeleteGet ready for the statewide drought emergency article. I look forward to your new response. Can I ask when you do address these points if you so chose to blog on it,
ReplyDelete1) your graphs show high water in resevoirs around June, this is when melt off of all snow at snotel sites around 5000ft and below ceases cause its gone, so would it be safe to say the last high mountain snow keeps flow through late summer? If so, having the same levels of resevoirs starting june, we should be fine?
2) ground water impacts. DOE, puts limitations on water use of wells citing continuity to streams/rivers. So if we are warmer, less frozen ground, water is going into ground, how can they quantify that. It too is a unseen storage basin of water for streams right? If not DOE should take away the continuity rule. With that water is still in basin rather than rjust running off frozen ground into rivers.
3)with 50% of normal left of snow and irrigation season starting., do you have a water manager friend that can show that irrigation usage of now to june and if levels will remain normal level through june. If so then then it kinda goes back to point one mixed with point 2
Thanks
How many reservoirs are actually FED by snowmelt? There seems to be a lot of confusion about this overall: (1) the where, and (2) the share of (ephemeral) snowmelt - compared to actual precipitation (runoff, stormwater).
DeleteI have YET to ever find a really credible map. What I do know is that it's "baseflow" (groundwater, water tables) that "fill streams" (and rivers). The mechanics I'm referring to are real - it's a matter of genuine, basic, hydrogeology.
I saw yesterday that The Seattle Times ran an article about the state declaring a drought emergency. They just can't help themselves. It's unfortunate that shamelessly false declarations get all of the attention and headlines
ReplyDeleteI saw that article, as well as the state's official press release. It troubles me that our farmers will likely have their water rations cut and may have to plant fewer crops as a result of this declaration, even though there seems to be enough water to go around.
DeleteYes I just read this article online - the 'Department for Ecology Washington State has declared significant drought for our entire state. Thank you Cliff for your beautiful graphs, maps and explanations of the SCIENCE to help us navigate the hype...Please don't ever retire :)
ReplyDeleteWe can't afford to lose Professor Mass! As far as I know, there isn't anyone else offering any sort of rebuttals to the stories coming out of the Seattle Times' Climate Lab, and they are desperately needed! The truth must be told about our weather, water supplies, and other important meterology and climate topics, and the Times continues to show they're not up to the job. But Professor Mass is! Thank you, Professor, for your dedicated service to our region!
DeleteIs there a website location that tells how many times the Department of Ecology has declared a significant drought for the entire state. And then some data that shows when there were imposed water restrictions?
ReplyDeleteHere is what Gemini Pro 3.1 says:
ReplyDeleteHere is a breakdown of the actual data contrasting the Washington State Department of Ecology’s predictive indicators with the observed ground-truth conditions:
* **Prediction Basis (The 75% Threshold):** The Department of Ecology legally declares a drought emergency when the projected water supply is expected to fall below 75% of normal. They heavily weight their predictions on the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). For instance, in April 2026, the observed statewide snowpack sat at a dismal 52% to 53% of normal, triggering a near-statewide drought emergency prediction for the impending summer.
* **Observed Precipitation Data:** Despite the alarm over low snowpack, the actual water year-to-date precipitation observed between October 2025 and February 2026 was between 104% and 112% of the historical average. The region experienced an abundance of moisture; however, elevated winter temperatures caused it to fall as rain rather than snow, creating what meteorologists term a "snow drought" rather than a true precipitation drought.
* **Observed Reservoir Storage:** The most stark contrast to the drought predictions is found in actual reservoir storage data. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation measurements from early April 2026 indicated that major containment systems, such as Keechelus Lake in the Yakima reservoir network, were operating at 95% to 96% capacity. This observed water volume places current storage in the top 3% of recorded history for that time of year, directly challenging forecasts of catastrophic storage failures.
* **Observed Soil Moisture:** While the Department of Ecology warns of severe impacts on agriculture and dryland farming, independent meteorological reviews of ground data have highlighted that observed topsoil moisture at a 4-inch depth was registering at approximately 101% of normal across a large portion of the state during the spring, indicating healthy immediate conditions for crops.
* **Observed Municipal Resiliency:** Even within the Department of Ecology's own reporting, actual observed conditions for major population centers contradict the broader statewide panic. Utilities serving Seattle, Tacoma, and Everett possess vast, deep-reservoir infrastructure that efficiently captured the heavy winter rains. Consequently, their actual water supplies remain robust, and they consistently report no anticipated negative impacts for their consumers despite the surrounding drought declarations.
Many of your followers that post opinions here may like to see the NYT article printed April 9, 2026 titled: “CLIMATE DENIAL COMES TO WASHINGTON” by Maxine Joselow
ReplyDeleteIt begins thus:
“Yesterday I found myself in a strange setting: the ballroom in the basement of a hotel in downtown Washington. I was there to cover a conference hosted by groups that reject the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change.
It might have seemed like a fringe event, except for the high-profile opening speaker: Lee Zeldin, the administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency and one of President Trump’s possible choices for the next attorney general. The mood in the room was celebratory. … Trump has called climate change a hoax and the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.”
For an in depth weekly discussion on the topic check out Storm Surfs weekly YouTube and write up on their website. Been following it for over a decade for surf forecasting. It's a master class into all the charts and data focusing on El Nino, la Mina, the MJO and the SOI. Not affiliated with the site just a long time reader and listener. Thanks Cliff for your level headed analysis of our weather, and glad there is less political commentary these days.
ReplyDelete“We are more accurate in predicting weather the closer we get to the date we are interested in.”
ReplyDeleteEl Niñogeddon is coming!
ReplyDelete