Yesterday, the temperature at SeaTac Airport rose to 89F, beating the all-time daily record for the date (86F)!
Today, even if the temperature is the same today, it won't break any records.
How could this be?
It turns out that not all records are equal.
Let me explain.
Below is a plot of observed temperatures (blue bars), average temperature range (brown band), and record highs (red) and lows (blue) for June at Boeing Field in Seattle.
Look carefully at the record highs. A large variation of record highs in June from 81F to 104F! Generally around 90F.
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So why the variability?
It turns out that to get the really high temperatures in western Washington, the atmosphere needs to organize itself in a very specific way, generally with a strong upper-level ridge and offshore-directed flow at low levels.
And on some days, by the luck of the draw, the atmosphere gets the right setup for maximal heat. After many years, the needed flow pattern occurs, and the temperature climbs to record levels.
Global warming plays very little role in these records---the key is getting the right atmospheric flow situation.
Would you like me to prove this to you?
Here is a plot of the highest maximum temperature each year between June 7 and June 21 since 1950 at Olympic Airport (a less urbanized location than SeaTac). No apparent upward trend.
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Turning back to SeaTac, below is a plot of the highest temperature on June 14th at that location (below).
2025 was the warmest year on record for that date. But note! There is no trend in the record temperatures for that date over the entire period of record.
In fact, the highest temperatures on June 14th are trending down! (brown line).
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So the global warming claims for the origin of such records should be taken with a large grain of salt.
Regarding "So the global warming claims for the origin of such records should be taken with a large grain of salt." Yes, definitely, and the downward trend at SeaTac confirms this seeing as how the siting of the SeaTac weather station, while necessary for flight operations is ill-suited for gathering valid climate data. It is surrounded by acres of tarmac and being situated near an active runway also affected by jet exhaust.
ReplyDeleteYou write "Global warming plays very little role in these records". What does "very little" mean, scientifically? Very little compared with a bigger number? Very little compared with what could cause huge problems for humanity?
ReplyDeleteIt seems like you are saying it plays a very little role compared with natural year-to-year (and day-to-day) fluctuations (caused by atmospheric flow patterns, among other things). That is true but unimportant, because global warming (which is caused by humans and is preventable) occurs ON TOP OF natural fluctuations (which are of course inevitable).
bruce... global warming is so small compared to natural variability for extremes that it is in the noise level..cliff
DeleteWenatchee had a significant population increase between 1970 and 2010, about doubling in size. Land use changes are notable. The area one-third of a mile southwest of the WTFRC, west of Woodward Drive, was trees in 2017. In 2020, roads replace trees, now the trees are gone and houses appear. North of Springwater Ave had trees 20 years ago. Now gone.
DeleteRichard Feynman, noted physicist, insisted considering alternatives to one's hypotheses, stating that "you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool."
Not sure of the intent of your comment about the changes that have occurred in recent years in Wenatchee but if you are implying that these changes are the main cause of the recent warming at the TFRC, I believe they have had little affect. The orchard area west of Woodward drive was removed a few years ago but the warming trend of temperatures at the TFRC started well before that, especially night temperatures which have been rising steadily since the 1980s. Most of the area north of Springwater was in houses with scattered blocks of orchard well before 2000 and these orchard blocks have been just gradually removed over the years.
DeleteWhile there may not be a trend toward warmer record breaking high temperatures, at Seattle at least, the temperature record at the Wenatchee Tree Fruit Research Center shows an increasing frequency of maximum temperature records being set in more recent years in June (and the other summer months). The record at the Wenatchee TFRC began in the late 1930s, yet the daily record high for 15 of the 30 June days has been set in the last 15 years, since 2007, and on 5 of these days the record high has been broken two times since 2007.
ReplyDeletewxman...there is no trend in Wenatchee (Airport).... I just checked. You should review your numbers...cliff
DeleteStatewide climate data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information shows that observed temperatures in Washington have risen by about 2°F since 1900.
ReplyDeleteTV news has been overhyping today's forecast high for a week! Did the clouds keep the temperatures cooler? What got missed by the model(s)? Thanks for your blog, it's great!!
ReplyDeleteIf they're relying on data from the National Weather Service, it may explain why the forecast high ended up being off. The NWS forecasts seem to be abnormally off at the moment. For instance, for this upcoming Monday, they have Elma in Grays Harbor County projected to hit 101 degrees as of this writing. Weather.com is only going for 89 degrees. Thats a unusually large discrepancy. We'll see who ends up being accurate.
DeleteI've been wondering for some time about the actual length of time that "record-setting" temperatures were reached without saying "how long-for." How significant are statistics like that when the record-setting moment might have been short (ten minutes? an hour? a few hours?). I've had my instrument (which is located in an open area) hit 90 or 100 F in full sun when the ambient (surrounding) area's air temp was significantly lower (and the day's average temp was much-much lower). When a record is set just briefly (or for a long period), I'd love to know more about the event (a full account).
ReplyDeleteI wonder about the concept of “record” weather readings in a place where records only go back a century or less. Show me a 200 or even 500 year record, and you’ll really have my attention.
DeleteWhy does Seattle noaa put up warnings for heat even when many other areas have hotter temps , de point heat index etc- is Twmperatire and objective fact or more just a feeling?
ReplyDeleteHeat acclimation, or lack thereof, is the difference. If you live where temps in the 90s are common, your body will adjust to the temps far more readily than someone living where temps in the 60s or 70s are the norm.
DeleteThen again, a week or two is usually plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments.
Speaking from a horticulture angle, there is no correlation between human influence on the earths biome and the actual weather patterns we are seeing. Why? I have seen the climate
ReplyDeletechange over the years (30+ years) and it has become apparent that it is just incremental changes to what we see everyday in our own gardens and landscapes that causes a reaction. The real story is, we do not have enough empirical data to really explain this. This little blue dot is in a state of flux and things are never static. Sure we do things that we should not do when
it comes to crop modifications and other things that help keep humans fed. But, in the end, the
we have no control over the what the solar system, the galaxy or the universe has in store for us.
Control is an illusion. We are just a grain of sand.