The "Super" El Nino Will Weaken Super Fast

There is a lot of folk wisdom about the current El Nino situation.

The flame that burns twice as bright burns half as long.

Fast ripe, fast rotten.

Up like a rocket, down like a stick.

The higher you climb, the harder you fall.

The media, such as the Seattle Times, have been breathlessly describing the currently developing El Nino, with many applying the unscientific "super" prefix.   Some have suggested devastating impacts (see below).

The latest forecasts paint a different picture.  

El Nino will develop rapidly this summer/fall but will weaken quickly during the winter.

This rapid decline is important, since the winter is the period with the greatest impact of El Nino on the meteorology of the Northwest.

Let me demonstrate this to you.

The latest forecast of the NOAA CFS model (below) predicts a peak warming of the tropical Pacific in October-November to around 2 °C (major El Nino), followed by a rapid cooling to 1°F (moderate El Nino) by January-February.

Looking at a collection of many forecast models (below) provides a similar picture:  a substantial weakening of El Nino during the winter.

The bottom line of these forecasts is that some of the over-the-top predictions by the media and others regarding a super El Nino causing severe weather impacts may be a bit over the top.

Finally, looking at the current short-period forecasts, it appears that we have a wet/cooler than normal period ahead, as shown by the NOAA predictions below.

The latest UW forecast model predictions for precipitation totals through Sunday morning (below indicate a nice wetting across Washington State.  A lot more precipitation is predicted during the next 10 days.