We are about to warm up into the mid-80s this week in the west and 90s in eastern Washington, followed by a profound cool-down and plenty of precipitation.
Consider the latest predictions for temperature in Seattle and the Tri-Cities below.
Temperatures peak on Wednesday, before dropping off the proverbial cliff by the end of the week.
Classic for our region, where cool ocean air is always close by.
You can see the predicted regional temperature evolution spatially below.
The forecast high temperatures for today are quite moderate over western Washington (highs in the 70s), while warmer temperatures are found in the Columbia Basin.
But by Tuesday (at 5 PM), the reds (80s) have spread into western Washington. Still cool along the coast and over NW Washington.
But by Thursday, a radical cooling has occurred in the west, with temperatures only getting into the 60s over the lowlands. Eastern Washington has also cooled.
The cause of this transition? The approach of a strong upper level tough of low pressure (see forecast at 500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) below. Wow.
Are you planning a hike after Thursday? Bring some rain gear.
To illustrate our soggy future, below are the predicted precipitation totals through Sunday morning. Yikes. Several inches in the mountains. Even eastern Washington gets wet!
The NOAA Extended (6-10 day forecast) is wetter than normal over our region (see below)
The timing of this precipitation, right before our dry season, is superb for providing soil moisture, filling reservoirs, and reducing wildfire threat.
So NWS for Seattle has my house at predicted 90F, and a Heat advisory and all sorts of graphics. Is there an objective standard that they use for this? Obviously temps hit 90F all over the USA in summer, and don't get these heat alerts. Or is this like a drought declaration, "it just depends"
ReplyDeleteSeattle heat is graded on a curve. I also think that the back-and-forth temp swings of late spring make summer's first little jabs seem like they're more full-on punches. It's kind of hard to acclimate when 2-3 days of 80+ is followed by a week of 60's.
DeleteAs a native of the state (and Tacoma), this makes total sense as most of us born and raised here find anything above 85F exceedingly hot, even 82 is borderline too hot for many of us. We are more used to the 75-82 range temps than anything else for summer heat around western Washington, especially those of us near/on the sound.
Deleteadding to my question; at my house, with high forecast is 90F, same time the dewpoint is 54F. and rel humidity 34%. That's a dry heat and not the least bit oppressive.
ReplyDeleteFrom an educated forester: this amount of rain at this late into the year adds virtually nothing to forest soil moisture. See interception and duff. 90% or more of the rain we'll see on the west side gets into the branches, hangs around for a bit, and evaporates away when the sun comes out. Regions that receive 60 inches per year might intercept 30 inches.. 2 inches falling close to the warmest part of the year after the conifers have flushed our and hardwoods have leafed out wil net maybe 0.10-0.25 inches on the forest floor, which has a near impermeable layer of duff before the mineral soil.
ReplyDeleteAnd that's ok! The soils are not that dry
Better than an uneducated forester. My point is not about forest moisture, but regards wildfire threat and water resources. The deep soil moisture this year was aided by the normal rainfall we had over the winter.
DeleteWhy are you showing a Celsius temperature scale?
ReplyDeleteFun fact These blogs are ai generated mass retired to Bolivia in 2014
Deletemy secret has been revealed!
DeleteI wouldn't say 3/10ths of an inch over the north Olympic Peninsula is a game changer. We have been much drier than normal all calendar year, and this forecast event does little to change that reality.
ReplyDeleteperhaps not a "game changer" but very helpful
DeleteI have been hearing about a "super La Ninia" by several Youtubers and am wondering what your thoughts are over this, is it real? One report I caught a glimpse of says it's more like what we saw in 2019, abnormally warm overnight, but about average during the day, with higher humidity (the blob?), even some professional forcasters from say the NWS are saying as much.
ReplyDeleteCurious on what is your take on this?
The Garred Road Fire west of the Sun Lakes camping area and Coulee City triggered Level 3 evacuations, road closures, and multi-agency firefighting efforts with many types of planes. The big ones go to Moses Lake for refills of retardent. Human caused. Now mopping this baby up!
ReplyDeletehttps://wfca.com/fire-map/washington/garred_road