During the next week or so, the weather will be more reminiscent of February than June, with lots of rain and MUCH colder than normal temperatures.
Reservoirs, already above normal, will be topped off, streamflows will be substantially enhanced, and soils moistened.
Let's begin by looking at the predicted precipitation totals (by the European Center Model).
Through Friday, some regional light rain (see below)
Values of cumulative precipitation over the next 15 days are quite extraordinary, with substantial rain even falling over eastern Washington.
Now I will show you something hard to believe.
A very, very strong atmospheric river will be aimed right at us on Sunday evening (a measure of the amount of water moved by the atmospheric river is shown).
Just stunning.
Not only will it be wet, but much colder than normal, which reduces evaporation considerably and encourages water to percolate into the soil.
Below is the forecast difference of temperature from normal for the next five days.
Brrr! The whole region is 3-6F colder than normal,
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is going for wetter than normal for their 5-10 day forecast:
And the NOAA Northwest River Forecast Center predicts that local rivers will rise substantially. For example, consider the Yakima River, which is of prime interest these days. Big jump upwards.
Having an extended cool, wet period at this time of the year is extremely favorable for both water supply and agriculture.
Hopefully, the "extreme drought" hype will fade now.
My lawn is beginning to look drought stressed so this is good news. The upcoming wet weather reminds me of growing up here when it seemed like the first weeks after school let out were reliably wet and cool.
ReplyDeleteToo much of this and berry season takes a hit
ReplyDeleteIt’s nice to have some moisture right before berries become ripe to fatten them up.
DeleteJust heard the declaration "severe drought for the fourth year in a row" for our region on KOMO 1000 AM radio on Tuesday. Four different people were quoted. Could not find a way to make comment on any of their sites.
ReplyDeleteMakes me crazy... so deceiving to so many!
Yes, good for water levels, fire suppression, and some agriculture. Not good for swimming, sailing, hiking, climbing, bike riding, sun lovers, or portulaca plants.
ReplyDeleteOne of the things that gets me about the climate here is that it changes less frequently than the eastern to-thirds of the country. It has a way of getting "stuck" in wet mode or dry mode. Walter Rue, in his book on weather, extolls the weather here as "changeable". It is only changeable, relatively speaking, when compared with California and some other parts of the Southwest. Not when compared to the Rockies or the East.
I guess you meant "weather changes" not "climate changes". The prevailing westerlies bring our weather straight in off the ocean. Do read up on continental verses maritime climates.
DeleteYes, a typical Mediterranean climate, as ours is (in Western Washington in particular) is concerned, it's not so much variable day to day, but can vary by the hour and have microclimates. We typically do not get the extremes than we get everywhere else, so no hurricanes/tornadoes etc, usually, but a huge thunderstorm like Sept 2019 is rare for us.
DeleteEven snow events like 1985 and 1990 are not common, even a white Christmas like in 2022-23 where we got a decent amount of snow (6" or so) but it was wonderful while it lasted.
So outside of the occasional atmospheric or pineapple express storm, we don't get violent weather all that often.
Yakima Reservoirs are no longer "higher than normal"....i finally looked at the Yakima Teacup diagram and graph; almost exactly at the historical average for Jun 4. (the reservoir "on average" gives the drought mongers some oxygen so to speak).
ReplyDeleteThey may not be higher than normal anymore. But if they're at or near the historical average, that shouldn't be a bad thing.
DeleteState Department of Ecology supported by Seattle Times declares statewide drought nonetheless. Because it feeds the climate emissions taxes.
ReplyDeleteHow come the $2 billion of the climate tax isn't used on this problem, if it is a problem? If they can spend $200,000 for rain gear for the Snoqualmie tribe, why can't they spend on improving the reservoirs and canals?
ReplyDeleteJust so. King County has added 1.4 million people since 1970. During that time, what has the state and county done to increase supply--especially as snowfalls trends change? Given the results we've seen in other states (including the $6.2 million our own state spent to build a wildlife overpass on I-90) it's natural to wonder if the state can even manage the task.
DeleteLove the Junuary weather! MyNorthwest website has an extensive fear-mongering article about a heat dome and a 90° day towards the end of June. It claims that hundreds of people died in 2021 from heat in June in PNW? Strange article indeed.
ReplyDeleteYeah, strange. 2023 when at the end of June, we hit an unusual 100+ degree days over 3 days. That stuck with me as while we roasted, a condo tower in Miami collapsed.
DeleteHad similar even back in 2009 where official records were 103F in Seattle.
Yes July 29 2009 Bothell was hotter that the 2023 heat dome... 107 vs 103 degrees. I went swimming at dawn for 40 min in Lake Dorothy at 3000 feet and I did not get cold. I knew it would be a rare opportunity so I went for it.
DeleteAnother forecast bust? It was supposed to rain yesterday and much of the night. But here in N. Bothell there has been hardly a drop.
DeleteI saw the MyNorthwest article. It will be interesting to see if their extreme prediction for our weather later this month bears fruit. It will be very damaging for their credibility if it doesn't. Of course, I hope it doesn't. The June 2021 heat dome was awful!
DeleteIts a rather short lived cool and wet spell. It looks like a big ridge off the coast may be rebuilding around mid-month and just like that, it could be back to warm and dry. i guess that wouldn't be too unseasonable for the 2nd half of June. However, these next few days will be a nice respite and a big help for water levels for sure.
ReplyDeleteIs it really short? For summer I’d say not
Deletehttps://climate.uw.edu/2026/04/06/march-2026-snowpack-and-drought-summary/
ReplyDelete"You may be wondering, given all of this winter runoff, can’t we store this water to use when water supply from snowpack and groundwater is scarce? While it is true that water managers all across the state have been able to capture a good amount of winter runoff, and many reservoirs are currently running above normal, these reservoirs do not have enough capacity to cover all of the demand. Snowmelt remains a critical aspect of our water supply even in years where we start off the dry season with full reservoirs."
State has collected $2 billion or more to handout to climate justice- time to spend that on adding reservoir capacity
DeleteWe need your forecast for a wet, cool period for Eastern Washington to come true since we are entering an important period that could determine what this seasons wildfire threat will be. Despite a couple of wet storms and local downpours in May, much of the Cascade east slopes and Okanogan ended up with about two thirds normal rain for May, and much of this rain was a couple of short duration heavy showers which are not as effective in moistening the large forest fuels, as a long duration or more frequent rain would have been. With the longer range outlook calling for increasing warmth a dryness after this initial cool, wetter period, we need to get a substantial amount of moisture from it.
ReplyDeleteThis is yet another annoying setback, but weather.com is hinting a nice little warmup over the next weekend. I know this is an unpopular opinion in this region, but it's time for the wet season to retire, and it has been for about two months. Then again, I'm fresh off a bike ride that took me through a shower that slipped through the forecast. The real kicker was the soaking took place at the turnaround point.
ReplyDeleteSeattle, and London, are the two large cities that have the most cloudy weather...It is the cloudiness that some "transplants" cannot stand...I know a few couples that headed back to the Mid-West after trying out our NW gloom for a few years. For myself, having been born and raised here...I have no problem with it!
ReplyDeleteYes... I do think we get "imprinted" with the place we grew up. Applies to me too. I still miss exciting Eastern weather.
DeleteAccurate forecasting, yes (and thank you; got the mowing done in time). 'Had almost an inch (.98") rain for the 24 hrs, and a very cool night (there's snow still falling on the mountains above). But the experienced farmers in this county had plenty of time to harvest very ample "first cuttings" of hay (and 'chop' for silos) during May. A typical "June gloom" will lead to good second cuts in July (corn, "knee high in July") and so on. "Statewide" drought? Not exactly.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the reminder to go shut off the drip irrigation timer for a few days.
ReplyDelete