Normally, tropical storms and hurricanes avoid the area of the Hawaiian Islands.
Why? Because the nearby Pacific is usually too cool!
In general, surface temperatures must reach at least 80°F (26.5°C) to sustain tropical storm development.
This year, due to a very strong El Nino, temperatures south and east of Hawaii are 1-2 C above normal (see map of differences from normal for sea surface temperature)
As shown by a more detailed, close-in map, the 27C line just reaches Hawaii. A "warm enough" bath is open.
No wonder tropical storms can approach Hawaii this year!
Consider satellite imagery from yesterday afternoon...and be prepared to be impressed!
A high-resolution satellite image shows three hurricanes/tropical storms over the eastern Pacific, with a red arrow pointing to the Big Island. Wow.
Here is an infrared image of the storms. Amazing.
Even more amazing is a series of forecast maps of evolution of the tropical storms. I will show you maps of atmospheric moisture through depth.
Today at 11 AM, the swirls of moisture around three tropical storms are evident. Stunning.
The storm's crazy movement near Hawaii is reflected in the total precipitation over the next 10 days. You can see the northward jog, followed by a turn to the east. Quite unusual!
A great time to visit Kauai if you are meteorologically inclined. 😊
Currently, a high-pressure system over the Pacific is moving northward, which will completely change the weather pattern in the western United States.
ReplyDeleteSAT24
https://i.ibb.co/C3yjT93k/Zrzut-ekranu-2026-09-03-175635.png
Imagine being a mariner before we had all of the modern technology. Crossing the Pacific Ocean with a big El Nino would be exciting to say the least. I would expect also without much warning since they would not have access to modern communications. Those were some hardy souls!
ReplyDeleteMaster and Commander
DeleteI have heard that hurricanes serve to cool the equatorial latitudes by sending heat north. Has the number of major Pacific hurricanes this year served to update models regarding the timing and rate of this El Nick's cooling?
ReplyDeleteMeant to write "El Niño's cooling".
ReplyDeleteSorta looks like the North Pacific blob is coming back as well.
ReplyDeleteAny connection to weather NHK World Japan has spent summer covering. Abnormal sustained high temperatures across Japan's populated prefectures; now the effect seems to have induced abnormal rains in localized spots.
ReplyDelete