Pacific Windstorm Will Hit The Pacific Northwest Late Thursday and Friday

Autumn began yesterday at 5 PM and the atmosphere has taken notice.

A significant midlatitude cyclone will cross the northern Oregon coast late Thursday and Friday morning, bringing strong winds and localized power outages.

Consider the UW WRF model forecast for Friday morning at 5 AM (sea level pressure and maximum wind gusts are shown below). 

Wow.  A very intense, but small, low-pressure center will make landfall on the northern Oregon Coast, with gusts up to 70 knots.   

 

Plotting the maximum wind gusts over time for this event (below) indicates the northern Oregon  Coast will get a direct hit with winds reaching 50 knots. 

This early in the season, this means power outages.

Other weather prediction systems are doing the same thing.   The excellent European Center model has a similar maximum wind swath. (The graphic below is in mph).  Seattle only gets some modest gusts.

The simulated satellite imagery for Thursday evening indicates an impressive system (the arrow points to the low center).  Looks like midwinter!

Precipitation totals from this system will be substantial, with the mountains and the coast getting several inches (see below).  Even eastern Washington gets substantial rain.  

All good for terminating the wildfire season and providing agriculture with a nice wetting rain.    Reservoirs will gain valuable water.

I am concerned about the lack of coastal wind warnings by the National Weather Service offices in Seattle and Portland (see their latest forecast graphics below).

They really need to have some kind of warning out for the northern Oregon coast.  

I could comment on issues with National Weather Service forecasts, but I will leave that to another time.

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Finally, someone emailed me about a good book on Northwest Weather.  Well, I do know one 😉

Link

Peak Bird Migration Reveals Gaps In Northwest Weather Radar

We are now at the peak of the bird migration season, and weather radar does a good job of tracking our feathered friends. 

The massive bird swarms over us now are a powerful tool for determining gaps in weather radar coverage.

Let's examine the regional radar imagery in more detail.

As some background, here are some weather radar-based bird migration statistics (from the Cornell BirdCast website).  Birds like to fly from sunset to sunrise, with a peak around midnight/

And we are nearly at the peak time of the year for the southward migration. 

At 5 PM yesterday, the combined radar image showed was just some local ground clutter.

The situation was very different at 9 PM, with the birds in flight (below).  The birds don't like to fly offshore. 

But over land, there are clearly major radar gaps, such as the southern  Oregon Coast, larger areas of north-central Washington, and much of eastern Washington.

Similar story around 3 AM today.

And this morning at 8 AM, the bird signal is gone, with just some ground returns.

The current weather radar locations are shown below with blue dots.   

 Suggested locations for new radars are shown by the red circles. Additional radars would be very helpful for weather prediction and other uses (e.g., wildfire management, flood warnings, and more).

Renewable Energy and the Period of Lowest Electricity Demand of the Year

We are now in the time of year with the lowest electricity demand in the Pacific Northwest, driven by our meteorology (see below).

The major peak occurs in winter, when electricity is needed to heat homes and buildings.  There is a minor peak in mid-summer, driven by air conditioner use.

With mild temperatures over the region, the demand for electricity is at a minimum during early to mid-September.

Everyone wants to maximize the use of renewable energy, such as wind and solar, so how well do they match the demand noted above?

To help answer this question, below is a plot of wind power generation for the Northwest (solar is at the noise level).

A maximum in spring and a minimum in August.   This makes sense meteorologically since most of our wind turbines are east of the Cascades, mainly on the lower slopes (e.g., Ellensburg area) or downwind of the Columbia Gorge.

Why this annual variation?   

The difference in pressure across the Cascades, which drives the westerly winds, is largest in spring because the temperature difference across the Cascades is largest then, with eastern WA/Oregin heating up more rapidly than coastal areas.  Differences in temperature drive differences in pressure, which drive the winds that produce power.

So what about the situation this year?   

To find out, I downloaded the Bonaville Power Administration (BPA) numbers for total electrical demand (load, blue) and the total from wind and solar generation (red).  The graphics are below.

Renewable energy (mainly wind) generally has a huge amount of day-to-day variability, often declining to near zero and rarely getting to 50% of the load.  Sometimes, it remains nearly zero for weeks, as in last January.  

How do we make up the difference between renewables and the demand?  Mainly hydropower, which our region is blessed with.

The detailed plot for the last week illustrated the collapse of renewables (again mainly wind)---even below our very limited nuclear power (purple line).  Demand (red line) varies substantially over the day, but hydro is sufficiently flexible to provide the necessary power throughout the day.

One thing is very, very clear.  If we want to have the energy needed for growth, electric cars. and server farms, wind energy and solar are inadequate to be the solution for the Northwest.   We need nuclear power.

Washington State Agricuture is Doing Well in 2026

For much of this year, some in the media and online have warned about drought and heat, predicting serious negative consequences for Washington State agriculture.     

The Drought Monitor website, often quoted in the press, has drought, some extreme, over eastern Washington.  The site warns of substantial negative impacts!

The headlines in many outlets have been apocalyptic; here are just a few:

The truth is very different from these scary predictions.  

There was sufficient water for agriculture this year.   

Harvests are near normal and in some cases above normal.

Let me prove this to you.

Washington wheat yields in 2026 will be 20% ABOVE normal.  

The barley harvest?   97% of normal this year!

The very important apple crop?  Very good news!

It is estimated to be down only 2% from last year's record-breaking harvest (see below), and forecasts call for exceptional quality.  I look forward to the crunch of a good apple!

Cherries?

They suffered a bit from a spring cold wave, resulting in a decline of around 15% in volume.  However, the industry reports that fruit quality, size, and flavor have remained exceptional throughout the season, and prices have remained favorable for the growers.

I would go on, but you get the message: this year has been a very decent year for Washington State agriculture. The scary claims of major drought, wildfire, lack of snowpack, and global warming impacts were clearly not true.

One reason eastern Washington agriculture did so well was that there was sufficient water.

The water levels behind the Columbia's Grand Coulee Dam this year (blue line) were close to normal (red line).

Elevation Level Behind the Grand Coulee Dam

The Yakima Reservoir started well above normal in spring and ended ABOVE last year and modestly below normal.   Sufficient water for normal agricultural operations in the Yakima Valley.

Heavy rains and relatively cool temperatures of the past two weeks have caused surface soils and fuel moisture levels to increase greatly over the lowlands of eastern Washington. (See example below; the thick red line is observed, the gray area is the normal range.)

The bottom line is that Washington State agriculture is in very good shape this year, with the Chicken Little predictions proving to be false.

 

The Northwest Wildfire Season Was Dominated by Grass and Range Fires. That Has Implications.

With the recent rain and cooling, the wildfire season is essentially over for the Pacific Northwest.  

In terms of acreage, 2026 has been one of the most prolific wildfire years of the past decades. 

Considering the past 50 years,  it was the leading wildfire year in Oregon and number two or three in Washington State.  Most of the major fires were started by a limited number of lightning "storms".

But now, the key point.   

The great majority of the wildfire acreage occurred in grass and range vegetation, not forests.

Importantly, grass and range fires have little to do with global warming and climate change.

To demonstrate all of this, let's begin by examining the areas burned  this year, using graphics from the U.S. Forest Service (below, pink shading shows the fire area this year )

Massive fire area in Oregon.  Nearly all in the grassy/range areas of the eastern side of the state.  

In contrast, essentially no fires over western Oregon, west of the Cascade crest.  One of the lowest wildfire years on record for the western side of the state.

Like Oregon, western Washington has also escaped wildfires this year (see below), and for the same reason:  a lack of strong easterly wind events.  Most of the wildfire area in Washington State has been in grass and range vegetation, but some of the fires have extended into trees on the slopes of local terrain (e.g., the Little Giant Fire)

What about the origins of the fires in the two states?   

According to the U.S. Forest Service, the vast majority of fires were ignited by humans (e.g., arson, power lines, debris burning).  The major acreage fires were nearly all started by lightning.

By simple inspection of the graphics, it is clear that grass/range vegetation, not trees, has dominated the 2026 fires in the Pacific Northwest.   

Asking various AI systems to compare the satellite-based fire areas to satellite-based land use provides similar answers. In Oregon, the dominance of light vegetation is overwhelming (see below), with three-quarters of the fires in grass and brush.  For Washington State, they estimate about 60% coverage by light vegetation.

Examining the fires manually, looking at BOTH satellite assets and surface imagery, it is apparent that the satellite approach underplays the availability and importance of light vegetation.  To illustrate, below is an image from a "forest" area within the very large Sinlahekin fire of north-central Washington.

 

There may be some trees, but grasses and low shrubs dominate. I have looked at dozens of other areas in both states, with similar results.  

Based on my review, I would suggest that at least 80% of the Oregon wildfire area this summer was in light vegetation and at least 70%  of the fire area in Washington.

Thus, this year was mainly a problem of flammable light fuels that dry quickly (hours to days) and are always dry enough to burn by July in our region.

Modest global warming over time was not a factor in the flammable conditions at the start of summer.

Furthermore,  our region has been invaded by non-native, highly flammable grasses and light shrubs.  These are human-forced vegetation changes that greatly enhance fire potential.

And with decades of fire suppression, our forests have become unusually dense and full of debris, and thus highly vulnerable to wildfires

In addition, the region has extperience downward trend in lightning.  So global warming is not forcing more lightning ignitions.

The bottom line is that human-forced global warming had very, very little to do with the major Northwest fires this summer, and those claiming a connection are providing problematic information to the public.

A "Perfect" Storm Hits the Northwest

If you were to order a "storm" for the Northwest, you would request one that drops lots of rain over the crest and eastern side of the Cascades, decisively ending the wildfire season and providing needed moisture to late-season crops.

To do so would require an upper-level low centered along the northern Oregon or southern Washington coast, which would swing moisture in from south into eastern Oregon and Washington.  

Exactly what is happening this weekend (see upper-level map for 2 PM Saturday).

Upper-level chart (500 hPa pressure level) for 2 PM Saturday. 

The resulting clouds swirling around the low are impressive:

As was the radar image last night.

Consider the  "storm" precipitation totals as of this morning around 6 AM (below).

Nearly an inch at some locations east of the Cascade crest as moist air swung around the low and rose on the eastern slope.

Looking forward, the total precipitation predicted through 5 AM Monday (by the UW WRF model) is quite impressive, with several inches forecast east of the Cascades, exactly where we need it to end the fire season

And believe it or not, it is cold enough aloft to result in some snow at higher elevations (see below)

We will have a warm/dry period this week, followed by the return to much heavier precipitation in ten days.  Welcome to autumn.

The Effects of "Super" El Ninos Are Surprisingly Different Than Some Suggest

It is now clear that a very strong or "super" El Niño will be in place this year.  

Some are even calling it a GODZILLA El Niño.

Several media outlets and amateur YouTube channels/social media sites suggest the impacts will be like a regular El Niño on steroids: very warm, wet, with a low snowpack.

For example, Oregon Public Radio:

The Bellington Herald throws caution to the wind, predicting drought and floods!  Plus fires. Devastating impacts for Whatcom County.  Meteorological "end times".

But there is pushback on these apocalyptic predictions.  

For example, the Summit at Snoqualmie folks looked at the snow statistics associated with very strong El Niño years and found snow totals near normal (link here)

And in my previous blog on very strong El Niños, I found the same thing: Northwest snowpack can be quite decent during "super" El Niño years.

So how can this be?   

Why do moderate El Niños cause one impact and "super" El Niños result in something different?   

Let's figure this out using real data.

The figure below shows precipitation associated with moderate, strong, and very strong ("super" or Godzilla) El Niño years for October through March.

The difference from normal is shown, with blue and purple indicating above-normal, and yellow and red indicating below-normal precipitation.  

Moderate and strong El Niño years are drier than normal over the Northwest, but "super" years, like this year, are WETTER than normal.

No drought expected.  Plenty of water for our region.

Surface air temperature?

Moderate and strong years are close to normal over the Northwest (below).  For "super" years like this one, temperatures are very modestly warmer (about 0.5 C or about 1F; see the blowup below). 

No wonder snowpacks remain decent for Super El Niño years:   only slightly warmer but with much more precipitation.

The Snoqualmie Pass folks were on to something!

Finally, can we explain these differences in a more fundamental way?  

To do so, below are upper-level weather charts (500 hPa heights; think of these as pressure around 18,000 ft)

All El Niño events are associated with an enhanced low-pressure system over the northeast Pacific (the purple colors).  Air circulates counterclockwise around lows.

For the moderate El Niños, the low is centered well offshore. Strong events have the low much closer to the coast, which is not favorable for precipitation over our region.  But for the "super" events, the low is more offshore, producing more moist southerly flow over our region.

Just right.

In summary, past events suggest that the Northwest impacts of a very strong El Niño are quite different from its moderate relatives.  

Importantly, Northwest drought conditions are not expected with a very strong El Niño, and there is good reason to hope for a near-normal snowpack.

Media and social media predictions of some kind of meteorological "end of times" are without support.