The KPLU Miracle

In a world where the news is often depressing (global warming, presidential discord, and constant conflict), it is refreshing to have a story that is so uplifting and encouraging that it brings a smile to your face thinking about it.

The saving of KPLU is just such a story.

Last November, it appeared that the Puget Sound region's favorite jazz, blues, local and NPR news public radio station (KPLU) would be lost.  Pacific Lutheran University (PLU) had made a secret deal with the UW and its public radio station (KUOW) to sell KPLU for 7 million dollars.  The KPLU staff would be fired and it award-winning local news team would lose their jobs.   KUOW would get the KPLU transmitters and a monopoly on local pledge money.

KPLU and the Phoenix Have a Lot in Common

It seemed inevitable:  the loss of ANOTHER news outlet.  The ending of probably the best jazz station in the country.  The loss of valued local content to a corporate-style competitor more interested in its bottom line than serving the public.

But then something unexpected happened.  Folks said no.  Spontaneous protests occurred at PLU.  Massive letter and email writing campaigns began.  Protest websites were established and social media (twitter, Facebook) filled with the comments of angry KPLU listeners.

And it worked.  The UW and PLU decided to give the community a chance to save their radio station--but they had to do it quickly or the sale would go through.  The community would have to raise seven million dollars in six months.

The reaction of the Northwest public radio audience has been extraordinary.  As of today (May 3), KPLU (actually Friends of  88.5) have raised a bit more than 5 MILLION DOLLARS from over 16,000 listeners.  Just amazing.     If the donations continue at this rate, the necessary funds will be collected before the June 30th deadline.

Just to give you an idea of the response, today is GiveBig donation day in which the Seattle Foundation will extend donations given to participating organizations.  Below is the list for major groups.  Friends of 88.5 is NUMBER ONE with over $ 700,000 in contributions from 3368 individual contributors.  In comparison, the problematic KUOW organization (who seem to have too much free cash available for taking over competitors) had only 264 contributions.  People know.

But the contributions are only one part of the story.  All through the region groups are holding SaveKPLU fundraisers:  in restaurants, music venues, lecture halls, and parties in private homes.  In a few weeks, there will be a gathering at the Museum of Flight with a real astronaut.    It is clear that thousands upon thousands of local folks value KPLU and this crucible of fundraising is building a unique and enduring relationship between listeners and their radio station.  

A connection is being forged that will make KPLU stronger. Folks are willing to make pledges, participate in fund raisers, comment on social media, and encourage their friends.  All  to prevent the loss of a valued news outlet, unique musical programming,  personable on-air staff, and popular community outreach efforts that are a signature of KPLU.

But some KPLU supporters are worried, concerned that PLU will find a way to make a deal with KUOW and the UW.   KUOW clearly is still hungry for KPLU's transmitters, and is doing what it can to undermine KPLU  (like starting a competitor jazz outlet called PlanetJazz).  But can you imagine what the public reaction would be if KPLU raises the 7 million from tens of thousands of  contributors and PLU does not let the community purchase the station?    The reaction would be immense and intense.   PLU and KUOW would be isolated and marginalized.  And they know it.   I also believe that the UW administration wants to do the right thing and would prefer if a community solution succeeds.

We are now in the home stretch to save KPLU.   But as in any race, good progress in the beginning is meaningless if you don't reach the finish line.   So please, help keep the momentum going by contributing to saving KPLU: .http://www.kplu.org/save-kplu

Or go to one of the many SaveKPLU events listed on the above web site.   There is nearly one every day at locations around around the area.

The Phoenix is rising out of the ashes.

Today is June 1st: A Very Warm Spring in the Northwest, Again.

Yesterday, I planted my tomato plants in my garden-- about a month earlier than normal.   And I am not worried that are going to be damaged by cold.  If you are a gardener, today is June 1st.

As I look outside this morning, white cottonwood seeds are floating and drifting up and down-- roughly a month earlier.  I love these floating tuffs:  you can see the atmospheric eddies that are normally invisible.

Portland Airport (PDX) has their warmest April on record (going back to 1940).  Essentially May temperatures in April.

Although we had a break last week (see my previous blog), this has been an extraordinarily warm spring and it is highly probable that this warmth will continue for the next few months.

Let's start by looking at the difference of surface temperature from normal for the past month (the temperature anomaly) from the Western Region Climate Center.  The Northwest is a huge hot spot, with temperatures 6F above normal over much of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho.  This is a very big warm anomaly.

This warmth has not been from a constant heat wave, but periods of normality interrupted by very warm intervals.  Seattle's temperature for the past week below illustrate this.  As we will show below, the warmest periods are associated with anomalous high pressure aloft, with one major warm period (April 18-23) being the real culprit.

There was good reason to expect a generally warm spring.   Although weakening, an El Nino is still present, with associated warm water along our coast (yellow/orange colors below)  and low pressure offshore that produces enhanced southwesterly flow.  The hated blob of warm sea surface temperatures over the NE Pacific has dissipated.

As I mentioned earlier, our warm temperatures have been associated with anomalously high pressure over the West Coast, which was particularly unusual during mid April.   Here is a map of the upper level (500 hPa, around 18,000 ft) height anomaly from normal (you can think of it as pressure as well).  High height anomaly (yellow colors) over us, with low height anomalies upstream and downstream.  The waviness of the atmosphere was enhanced during this period.

High pressure above the Northwest produces warmth is several ways.   High pressure results in sinking air, which warms as it sinks (compressed).  Such sinking reduces clouds, so we get more sun. On the western side of highs there is warm southerly flow.  And the surface reflection of upper level high pressure (or ridging) is generally east of the Cascades, so we get more offshore (easterly flow), which produces more sinking (warming) over the western slopes of the Cascades and pushes cool marine air away from the lowlands.

A REALLY important point is that this wave-like pattern not only produces a warm anomaly over us, but COLD anomalies where the heights are lower.  Here are the surface temperature anomalies from NOAA for the past 30 days.   Warm over us (orange/red), but much colder than normal over the NE US and eastern Canada.

The situation is not simply a general warming, as one might expect from anthropogenic global warming, but highly localized warm and cold anomalies driven by the enhanced wave pattern aloft.

The question you will be wondering:  could this wave pattern be produced by anthropogenic global warming?    At this point, the best answer is no.   Research, including work done by my past Ph.D. student Matt Brewer, does not suggest this.  In fact, global climate models run through 2100, suggest just the opposite:  a deamplfication of the waves.  But the persistence of ridging for a second year in spring is a bit unnerving.

It appears that natural variability is driving the waviness, but as always in science, we are not 100% sure.

But what about the rest of the spring?   For the next two weeks, there is definite skill.  The latest North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) guidance, based on combining the US and Canadian ensembles (running our models many times) suggests a warm Monday, followed by cool/wet period midweek, and warmer conditions next weekend (these box and whisker plots, with the yellow boxes showing the range of the 50% of the models closest to the median). The panel are temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and cloudiness.

The forecasts beyond 2 weeks are less reliable.   But let me show you the prediction of the international seasonal ensemble (below):  much warmer than normal for May and June.  I suspect this will be correct.

So go ahead, plant those tomatoes.  Put the seeds in the ground.  If you are a gardener, reset your clock and think of today as June 1st and you will know what to do.

Go ahead, you can buy these for your garden or deck.