This Year is 2050 in the Pacific Northwest

We went through a meteorological time machine this year.  You experienced the meteorology of 50 years into the future.

For example, we have lived through a summer with the snowpack expected in 2050.  

The second-lowest snowpack over the past decades.

Let me prove this to you.  

Below is a plot of Pacific Northwest snowpack on April 1 (after the winter accumulation season) since 1984.  

Wow, we had the second-lowest snowpack in over 40 years. Roughly 50% of normal.

When would we expect such a reduction in snow based on global warming?   

Let us assume the RCP 4.5 global warming scenario, which is typically used by the research community these days.

Under this scenario, here are the April 1 snowpack predictions for the Puget Sound region.    Snowpack doesn't decline to as much as this year until the end of the century!

Same thing for the entire Pacific Northwest:

So this year provides a taste of the snowpack in roughly 75 years into the future, assuming nothing major is done about greenhouse gas emissions.

What about temperatures?   As shown below, it was much warmer than normal tduring the past year, roughly 2-4 F above normal in much of the area!

Again, comparing to a regional climate simulation, this is like being transported in time to around 2050.

This meteorological time travel is exhausting!  

The last year has experienced conditions that will be typical during the middle to latter parts of this century if global warming increases without change.

Now the controversial part of this blog.

Those suggesting that such warming represents the end of the world and an acute threat to our survival are simply wrong.

There was sufficient water for human consumption (see Lake Roosevelt Level behind Grand Coulee Dam below)

Blue is this year, red is average

Regional agriculture has done well, with most crops near normal.

Forest fire areas were modest, with most of the fires being in grass/range vegetation (which is little influenced by climate change).

Those claiming the climatological sky was falling were simply wrong. 

We need to do what we can to mitigate global warming, but it is not an emergency or an acute threat to humanity.

Announcement

I will hold a special online Zoom session at 10 AM on Sunday for Patreon supporters. I plan to talk about the extended range forecasts and the strange conditions often apparent on super el nino years.