The Cold Truth About Renewable Energy in the Pacific Northwest

Over the weekend I received several messages from Puget Sound Energy to reduce my energy use, both gas and electric, with the implicit threats of potential blackouts (see below).

Avista Energy (eastern Washington/Idaho) and other utilities made similar requests from their customers.

The key reasons for the worries?    

The cold weather caused a large increase in energy demand and radically reduced the output of renewables (mainly wind in our region).   For a few hours, there was also a problem with PSE's gas storage facility south of Olympia.

This blog will describe the situation and why renewable energy tends to plummet just when energy demand is highest.  It is also a warning that politicians and energy activists need to consider.

Let us begin by looking at electricity demand and supplies over the Pacific Northwest for the past week provided by the Bonneville Energy Administration (see below).  The total demand (red line) increased rapidly between January 11 and January 14 (Saturday) as frigid Arctic air moved into the region and remained quite high on Sunday.  Huge demands to keep our homes and buildings warm.

Most of this energy demand was met by hydrogeneration (blue line).  Nuclear energy provided a steady energy source but at a lower level (purple).

But now look at renewables (the green line).  This is nearly entirely winds since solar is extremely low over the Northwest during mid-winter.   

Wind produced about a third of what hydro did before the cold air moved in, increased slightly at gusty northerly winds brought in the cold but collapsed to near zero once the cold air was in place.

To repeat, once cold air moves into the region and demand is at a maximum, winds calm out and renewables are no longer a significant source of energy in the Pacific Northwest.     During summer heatwaves something similar happens:  wind energy collapses during the warmest days.

So you understand this wind collapse issue better, let me show you a series of surface wind maps for the region (actually some highly accurate short-term forecasts of near-surface winds).  When you look at these maps, consider that most of the wind turbines are in eastern WA/Oregon.

At 10 PM last Tuesday, there were some decent winds east of the Cascades (orange, yellow, and red colors).

10 PM Tuesday

Winds and thus wind energy held up on Thursday as strong northerly winds brought in the cold air.

10 PM Thursday

But by 10 PM Saturday, the winds had collapsed over most of the inland regions.

10 PM Saturday

And plummeted even further by 10 PM Sunday.

The winds at Ellensburg, well placed within wind turbine country, tell the story as well.  Plenty of wind when the cold air started to move in but collapsed during the past few days.

This case is not unique. The same thing happens in virtually every cold wave.

So when we need the energy the most--to keep warm-- renewable energy will virtually always fail in winter.

And the name thing happens on a national scale...and is happening as I write this.   Below are the national statistics for the past week.

Wind energy (green line) dropped greatly as the cold air settled in over much of the U.S..  The only thing that kept the lights on was the increased use of natural gas (dark yellow line) and coal (red line).

The message of this information is clear.   Renewables such as wind energy are generally not reliable sources of energy in our region during cold wave situations when demand is highest.

Hydrogeneration is extraordinarily valuable and flexible and any suggestions to reduce hydrogenation resources (such as removing the Snake River dams) is highly irresponsible.

Natural gas, a very clean source of heat, is still acutely needed and attempts to reduce supply or to prevent gas heating in buildings are highly irresponsible as well.

And keep in mind that the energy problem will only get worse as the regional population grows and more folks buy electrically powered vehicles. 

Considering the acute deficiencies of renewables in our region (other than hydro) during cold and warm periods, we must take a more serious look at expanding nuclear power.  We can also work on the energy efficiency of our buildings, demand scheduling (such as controllable driers/washers/home thermostats), and better energy storage (although there are no magic bullets on that).

But reality is reality and climate/energy advocates need to understand the underlying problems and refrain from unrealistic demands.

Dry "Storm" Hits Washington State, Snow/Freezing Rain over Northwest Oregon

Today is a day of amazing weather contrast across the region, with unusual extremes around every corner.  

On one hand, the low-level air over Washington State is extraordinarily dry, because frigid Arctic air has very little moisture content.

Consider dew point, an absolute measure of the water vapor content of the air.

Dew point temperature, the temperature to which air must be cooled to get saturation (100% relative humidity), is in the single digits to below zero F over much of the state (see plot below for 2 PM values).

In western Washington, wintertime dew point temperature is typically in the 30s or low 40s.  To illustrate how unusual things are, below is a plot of the dew point temperature at the UW for the last twelve weeks.

The bottom has plummeted during the last few days, with a dew point near zero. Very dry air.  In contrast, dew point is 36F right now at Khartoum, in the Sahara Desert.

Or perhaps you prefer relative humidity (RH), which tells you how close to saturation the air is  (saturation is 100% RH).   Below is the RH forecast for 4 PM today for the surface air.    Quite low, with values in much of the state below 40%.

In contrast, relative humidity is far higher over Oregon, due to a moist weather system moving to our south (see the 2 PM visible satellite image below)

So the outside air over much of Washington is very dry.  

But now the shocker....it is even DRIER inside our heated buildings.

Below is the indoor relative humidity around Seattle.

OMG.  Many values are below 25% and some are in the teens.   No wonder your mouth is dry and your skin is cracking!

Why such low relative humidities inside?    

Relative humidity is 100 times the ratio of the amount of water vapor in air divided by the maximum amount it can hold.  

Outside air is constantly invading our homes and buildings so the moisture content is pretty much the same inside and out.   But the amount of water vapor air can hold depends on temperature and it is much warmer inside.  Thus, relative humidity is much lower inside during the winter.

Blizzard over the Western Gorge

Finally, while a dry storm is hitting much of Washington State, strong easterly winds are found in the Columbia Gorge, hitting places such as Troutdale and Portland.  At Crown Point, a scenic location in the western Gorge, winds are now gusting above 80 mph.  These winds are being driven by a historic difference between eastern Washington (high pressure) and the coastal areas (with low pressure approaching from offshore).

Snow has now spread across northern Oregon, with areas of localized freezing rain.    This was the wintry weather that was forecast to move into our region by the errant American weather model, the GFS.

Portland at 4 PM has a cover of snow