Monday, November 16, 2009

Monday Update


Lots happening. As the satellite image shows a band of moisture, associated with strong southerly and southwesterly winds and warm temperatures is streaming right into us. Complicating the picture have been a progression of low pressure centers that are riding northeastward on the cold side. One low pressure area moved by this morning, producing strong winds on the coast and the NW interior (50-60 mph gusts). Other areas gusted to 30-35 mph. A weak disturbance will move offshore tonight and a strong one will be here tomorrow morning. So expect the winds to increase later today and tomorrow am at least as high as this morning. But this is not a major windstorm like the one in Dec 2006.

Yesterday there were reasons to suspect that the major windstorm suggested by the American models was not in the cards...the UKMET and ECMWF models...as good as and better than ours--had a weaker solution with the low more to the north. The current solution is somewhere in between. The low center is also divided in two...always bad for a big storm.

Heavy precipitation is falling in the Olympics right now and more is expected today....both there, the Willapa Hills and the N. Cascades.

A few graphics of interest:

Here is the predicted sea level pressure at 7 AM tomorrow morning--strong low over Vancouver Island and intense pressure difference on the N. Washington coast and Strait of Georgia. Windy but not exceptional (30-40 mph gusts ) in Seattle, but NW WA and the coast could see 60-70 mph.


Here are the winds tonight as the first weak disturbance moves by. Very strong winds on the coast.
The 24-h rainfall ending 4 AM tomorrow morning--up to 5-10 inches (red colors) over the Olympics, Willapa Hills, and N Cascades. Seattle will get an inch or two before this is over. So rake up those leaves near drains!

High resolution view of precipitation

25 comments:

smokejumper said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
smokejumper said...

Looks like a very busy week ahead for you, appreciate the updates.

Extreme weather on the eastside of the cascades today! Currently mostly sunny and 61 degrees. Light SW wind. Extremely nice, I mean.

M'sFan said...

Don't have a rain guage, but here in Aberdeen it has been coming down in BUCKETS all day. Winds strong, comes in waves, but not impressive

Chris Christensen said...

Yeah, in Ellensburg right now and wish I was on the west side to enjoy this weather! Sunny and 53 degrees...

JewelyaZ said...

I'm glad the storm has backed off a little bit in intensity. Thanks for all the updates!

Scott K said...

Sounds like the Tuesday storm will be less potent than first thought.

I was rather disappointed with Monday morning's storm. Here in lake stevens we had no wind or almost no wind, plenty of rain though.

Maybe we'll get a chance to experience Tuesday's storm.

Patrick said...

Hey Cliff - I like the new Probcast features for quarter and one inch rain probability. That's good stuff!

Christopher said...

Love your blog. Only one complaint -- there's not enough of it!

Not sure what you meant by saying that the low split in two is "always bad for a big storm." Does it mean bad for us, that it makes a big storm bigger? Or does it mean that it's bad for the storm and it won't be as bad as it would have been if the low hadn't split? I hope the latter!

I really appreciate that you're one of the few places that really focuses on the wind factor, which is a lot more important up here in the San Juans than rain, since we don't have any rivers to flood but do have lots of trees to come down and houses on the coast to suffer wind damage.

Tim said...

Just drove from Pacific Beach down to Astoria on 101 and heavy rain (windshield having trouble keeping up) and high winds made for a very interesting drive. Going over the bridge in Astoria was particularly exciting.

Josh said...

Little reprieve here in the NW Interior. Winds just slacked off to a afternoon breeze. Some damage reported around the county of Whatcom. Tree fell onto a house in Bellingham proper. PSE Crews throwing switches left and right. Some getting rest and preparing for the next round of coffee and patients.

mainstreeter said...

NWS in Portland is reporting 23' waves at the mouth of the Columbia with 27' likely later on.

Must read blogs said...

it is simply been nothing but heavy rain here in chehalis. Lots of minor street flooding. I-5 is a nightmare.

zmb said...

The worst winds are coming Tuesday morning, right?

Joseph Ratliff said...

Now I'm hearing of the possibility of another "sequel" to the storm trilogy...Wednesday night into Thursday.

Sheesh.

Where is that El Nino pattern again?

mainstreeter said...

Yes, the possibility of another storm Thursday

NWS afternoon briefing

epjmcginley said...

strong gusts beginning now,
west of olympia on oyster bay.

SeattleTammy said...

Winds are going strong out here in Hoquiam.

One fun feature of weather underground is at the very bottom, real time stats from the coast. Put in zip code 98550, and watch the wind gusts.

Lee said...

The storm woke me up this morning, and led me to wonder something: at what wind speed does window breakage become an issue? I mean, I imagine this depends on the windows, but is there a general wind speed at which it becomes advisable for people to board up? They do this in hurricanes, but not in Pacific storms so much. Just wondering what the threshold is.

I live in an apartment with large windows, within a mile of the Sound and facing it, with few significant obstructions. So, the 3 am wake up call got me to thinking. :)

natchrl8r said...

Tammy, go to NWS, type in your zip and get more detailed info from the source. Go to the 3 DAY HISTORY below and see top winds for every hour. Gusts to 63! Hope you are battened down!

Sermonti said...

Hoquiam Bowerman Field ASOS reporting winds out of the SSE at 41, gusts 61.

Just had a gust to 27 at my home in Olympia.

Joseph Ratliff said...

654pm at the Olympia Airport

23mph gusting to 36mph from the South.

Upupaepops said...

http://meanderingwa.blogspot.com/


I could not resist a little artistic license

mainstreeter said...

I have the SAME WX alert on standby for the next couple of days

Joseph Ratliff said...

745pm 25mph gusting to 41mph in Lacey, WA according to Weather.com.

edlalu said...

The Flyboys at McChord must like the chance to train in tough weather, because I hear them overhead over and over this evening!