December 10, 2021

New Podcast: How can we predict climate change if we can't forecast weather more than a week ahead? Plus, massive snow in the mountains.

My podcast this week takes on a question I am often asked:

How can we predict climate 50-100 years from now, if we can't forecast the weather skillfully next week?

A very important question.  

If you are serious about climate issues, you really need to know the answer.   

And my latest podcast explains in detail (information about accessing the podcast is found below).

In the podcast I also talk about the amazing about of snow that will hit our mountains during the next week, as a La Nina type pattern becomes established.  Feet of snow.  And dangerous conditions in the passes tomorrow.

Total forecast snow through 4 PM Monday

My podcast can be heard here.

Finally, this week I have two book events you might attend:  a virtual/online book talk on Saturday at 10 AM through Facebook Live and an in-person book signing and chat at the University of Washington bookstore in Seattle between 1 and 3 PM on Sunday.

Virtual Book Talk:

The virtual book signing event will be available (10 AM Saturday) on my Facebook page (Facebook Live).  Just go to:

I will start with a short talk about Northwest weather and then open it up for questions and comments (you simply type your questions in as comments on the Facebook page).

In-Person Signing

I am excited about the in-person event at the UW Bookstore on Sunday (1-3 PM in the U. District).  More information is found here.  You can buy a book there or bring in a book you would like signed.  And happy to talk about the weather or climate.  You must be vaccinated/tested and wear a mask.

You can listen to the podcast below or through your favorite podcast server.

Some major podcast servers:

 HTML tutorial HTML tutorial
Like the podcast? Support on Patreon 


  1. People make the false assumption that climate prediction is weather prediction on steroids, which of course it is not. I run into examples of this type if flawed thinking 100 times a day, applied to every imaginable subject.

  2. I love climate changers, they're the best! I don't worship in that church...

  3. It also means the mods are garbage and incomplete, and therefore we should stop using them to promote a scientifically garbage narrative i.e. that carbon dioxide is something that can be taxed. Absolute nonsense.

    1. But see, if you're in the government and wish to continue to live the life of luxury and endless benefits, you have to adopt the adage of "if it lives or moves, tax it!"

  4. Climate changers, like flat eathers, and the extreme left and right religious nuts all have one thing in common, they cherry pick what they want to hear, then project that on the rest of of "us poor souls" in the hope it sticks (thankfully, a lot doesn't).

    As far as long term predictions, I have always took it as a guess, based on what we know now, along with the data that has been gleaned already in how some aspects of pollution has modified our weather currently, we can I think to some extend safely assume, as an average that this may be the case at 50-100 years, and we can always be surprised if the worst predictions ends up being much less than thought.

  5. Would love to hear about climate change that caused the mile thick sheet of ice that covered Seattle to melt and how that differs from the climate change we are experiencing today.

  6. Why can't CO2 be taxed? We can easily tax it, and do. Its called a gas tax

  7. Well, if the carbon gases are cut, vegetation dies, then humans die....basic elementary science, we breathe what vegetation produces..oxygen..which is made by humans breathing out carbon gas...hmmm let's fund climate warming nonsense and hence fund our own death.

  8. Must be nice having the luxury to invent and discuss non-existent problems like human-caused climate change. Many of us have too many real life problems to be afforded such luxuries.

  9. Hi Cliff! So excited for your signing today at U Bookstore - any chance for a signing event in Tacoma or thereabout?

  10. My experience in computer modeling taught me at least three things about models: (1) the most sensitive variables in a complex model tend to be the ones about we know the least (e.g., cloud formation), (2) tiny errors in initial parameter estimates propagated over time can grow to orders of magnitude larger than the effects we are trying to predict, these internal errors are rarely ever quantified (when have you ever seen error bars on a 50-year temperature prediction?) and (3) it’s quite easy to make these kinds of models say whatever you want them to say simply by “tuning” them in nearly undetectable ways. So, my faith in predictions of long-term climate models is greatly diminished, especially when such models are politically driven.

  11. Thank you! Excited to read your book.

  12. As long as the earth 🌎 exists, there will be seasons of warm and cool temperatures, heat waves and cold snaps, and the continuation of planting and harvesting.


Please make sure your comments are civil. Name calling and personal attacks are not appropriate.

Is Mid-June Getting Warmer or Colder?

 As I will demonstrate below, this past week has been unusually cool around the region. But that leads to another question.... is mid-June g...