December 31, 2021

New Podcast: The Weekend Weather and the Colorado Wildfire

 Today is sunny, but cool, with temperatures in the teens across eastern Washington and in the lower to mid-30s in the west.  Viewed from the space, the state is mostly covered in snow (see below).


My podcast this week (which you can listen to with the link below or through your favorite podcast server) describes a warming trend over the weekend and a generally dry Saturday.

A strong Pacific front approaches on Sunday, with the certainty for lots of snow in the mountains and the potential for more lowland snow on Monday morning into Tuesday.   But lots of uncertainty remains regarding the lowland snow...thus I will need a blog on Sunday to provide a more confident update.

I hope all of you have a good new year.  Has to be better than what we have been through this year.....

You can listen to the podcast below or through your favorite podcast server.


Some major podcast servers:

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Like the podcast? Support on Patreon 




25 comments:

  1. Cliff, thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience regarding our unique weather in the northwest. I've lived in Kitsap County my entire life and never get bored with our changing weather and seasons. I probably would have never known about sublimation without your blog posts. Thank you again, Matthew

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  2. Trees are leaf free, but full of snow, let's see...

    Headline High Wind Watch
    Description * What, Southeast winds 35 to 45 MPH with Gusts Up to 55 MPH
    Possible.

    * Where, San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western
    Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area, North Coast and Central
    Coast.

    * When, from Late Saturday Night Through Sunday Evening.

    * Impacts, damaging winds Could Blow Down Trees and Power
    Lines. Widespread Power Outages are Possible. Travel Could Be
    Difficult, Especially for High Profile Vehicles.
    Monitor the Latest Forecasts and Warnings for Updates on This
    Situation. Fasten Loose Objects or Shelter Objects in a Safe
    Location Prior to the Onset of winds.

    Expires 1/2/22 10:00 PM US/Pacific

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  3. Happy New Year, Cliff! My family and I sure appreciate your blog.

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  4. Happy New Year Cliff! It's too bad lots of media outlets always blame climate change for every extreme weather event, if they dug a little deeper into history, the 1920s had way more extreme fire and weather events as well as the 1950s. Weather is and will always be cyclical. Now adding arson and power line fires are not a natural cycle

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    Replies
    1. It's true that the media sensationalizes everything, including extreme weather events. That's not to say that climate change hasn't exacerbated these events to make them both worse and more frequent. If you read his other posts, Cliff agrees on these points.

      If anyone wants further analysis on the fire event from some Colorado weather experts, here is a great write-up:
      https://www.weather5280.com/2022/01/01/colorados-most-destructive-fire-a-result-of-extreme-winds-expanding-wildland-urban-interface-and-a-stressed-climate

      Delete
  5. Cliff, the town of Kodiak, Alaska hit 67 degrees on Dec. 26th.

    Is this furthur proof that climate breakdown doesn't exist?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What that would tell us is that it was 67 in Kodiak on the 26th.

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    2. What is "climate breakdown?"

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    3. Did you notice that Kodiak broke many all time cold records in November 2021? Also, December 2021 in Kodiak was below average. But the media didn't tell you that,did they ?

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    4. It was a high amplified jet stream that caused a couple warm days in Kodiak John K, go to noaanws and check the temperatures around the northern hemisphere, minus 55 in interior Alaska, minus 65 in Russia. A couple warm days at times doesn't mean we're all going to burn up like the media latches on too, there's a reason Greenland has a 12 thousand foot ice caps, it only melts a few months in the summer but pay attention to the headlines when there I a couple warm days

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  6. The New Year will be a better one if people like you keep up the good fight against ignorance and continue to post information that the "elites" deem to be heretical. Our citizenry needs to be reeducated on just what scientific inquiry actually entails, and not whatever the powers that be deem to be the dominant narrative du jour.

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    Replies
    1. Just to be clear, Cliff has said many times that he believes in climate change being fueled by humans and greenhouse gases. He has also said we can see the immediate impacts of that today, with melting of the polar ice caps, etc.

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    2. Just to be clear, no sh-t, Sherlock.

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    3. It doesn't appear that Eric Blair debated any of those points.

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    4. It doesn't appear that Eric Blair debated any of those points.

      Delete
  7. Eric Blair and Unknown - you might find this story informative:
    How extreme climate conditions fueled unprecedented Colorado fire
    In addition to good explanations and graphics of the science, which is true for all things I have read by the Capitol Weather Gang, I found the phrase “climate-enabled and weather-driven” to be useful.

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  8. Have the weather conditions that contributed to the disaster in Colorado been getting more frequent or more extreme? If so, were those changes due to human emission of GH gasses or were they due to natural variation? Or, maybe a combination of both, with the net favoring one or the other? Or maybe our climate has passed a tipping point not yet discernible from long term trends?

    These questions are not easily answered by Cliff or anyone else, and I suspect virtually impossible on such short notice.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Many complex contributing factors in the Colorado incident that in the end, IMO, resulted in a generally simple outcome. You have a combination of fuels (natural and manmade), weather, topography, interface complexities, urban complexities, response capabilities, amongst other things.. and in the end, the human factor. All of these have played out over the decades given similar circumstances and similar outcomes. No doubt there will be several articles written on the recent incident and it will be interesting to see the viewpoints whether wildfire based or urban firestorm based. I'm not dismissing your thought, and trends are important to look at, but I think there's many other factors involved that don't make this too dissimilar to other events recent or long ago. The climate is but one piece, there will be seasons and the life cycle of fuels, and we'll always have a wind component. These conflagrations have happened before and will happen again. Always interesting to study no matter what the angle.

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  9. Emmy Awards go to you sir for incredible forecasting in 21.. Your thought, your knowledge and the science you add is epic... Many thanks Professor, your loved by many!

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  10. Windy and snowy on Hood Canal with a 34 degree temp this Sunday morning.
    Should turn to rain later I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Cliff, out here in N. Bend it was forecast rain/snow mix from 11am today onwards. In reality we're seeing a snow/graupel mix ~3hrs into the precip event. On the weather.com radar its showing as rain (green).

    I recall you speaking a few years back about how computer models are too quick to mix out the cold air when we transition back to warmer temps. I wonder if you could speak to why that is and if something can be added to the models to correct for this bias as it seems to happen quite often. I assume it is very complex with our varied terrain trapping pockets of colder air even while air aloft is warm enough for rain and thus the radar wouldn't have such information.

    I also recall you mentioned to improve forecasting in general if we had distributed data such as pressure from mobile phones the fidelity of models could be improved. Would this help in these cold-warm transition scenarios to provide better prediction?

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    Replies
    1. An update on my previous comment. It never did switch to rain and snowed all afternoon and through the night with 1+ft total and now weather.com has updated it's forecast for snow until 10am on Tuesday yet still the radar shows rain/pink but it's falling as snow. Would be interesting to learn why it can't accurately predict the situation.

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  12. It's almost 3:00 pm here in Central Kitsap and it's been snowing pretty much all day with calm winds! Still 31 degrees and no sign of the wind and rain that has been predicted.

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  13. Cliff
    Your take is that the grass and brush where the fire began and initially spread was one-hour fuel, and would’ve become highly flammable regardless of prior conditions.

    Not the case with the fires’ other fuel sources - decks, siding, and roofs. Prior conditions must have contributed to very low moisture content, with moisture content being a key variable in how easily those materials ignite, and how fast and hot they burn.

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  14. Any chance to submit your podcast to Amazon Music?

    ReplyDelete

Please make sure your comments are civil. Name calling and personal attacks are not appropriate.

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