After examining a wide variety of forecast models and considering the region's climatology, it appears we will have to endure only one more warm spell for the remainder of the year.
And by a warm spell, I mean an event where western Washington rises into the mid-80s or above and eastern Washington nears 100F.
I will start by showing you the forecasts.
At Seattle, the skillful NOAA/NWS National Blend of Models (NBM) prediction system forecasts warming to the mid-80s on Thursday and Friday before cooling over the weekend. Temperatures cool to below normal (upper 60s) next week. The average high-temperature today in Seattle is 75F for reference.
As a check, consider the highly skillful European Center model ensemble of many forecasts (the mean of these forecasts are shown below). Quite similar to the NWS prediction.... and this forecast extends through mid-month.Next moving to the Tri-Cities, the prediction for Pasco shows a torrid high above 100F from Thursday to Sunday, with cooling to the lower 80s next weekThe temperature anomaly (from normal) forecast (by the European Center) for the mid-month (Sept 13-20) indicates cooler than normal temperatures over western Oregon to near-normal temperatures for the remainder of the region.
So enjoy the heat, wear some shorts, and get that swim in. The heat will soon be over and we will be moving towards fall-like weather starting next week.
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Reminder UW students: I will be teaching Atmospheric Sciences 101 this fall:
And if you are over 60, you can take the class for $5 through the UW Access Program...either online or in person.
Have you seen the report of wave clouds off Whidbey? See King 5 news. Wave clouds' seen off of Whidbey Island
ReplyDeleteLongview is Western Washington. We are expecting 98 on Thursday! So don't leave us out when saying "Western Washington" will be in the mid 80s, with Eastern WA being vlose to 100.
ReplyDeleteLongview is southwest Washington. If you read this blog much, you'd know what Cliff is referring to is the Puget Sound region.
DeleteHmmmm. I seem to recall a certain meteorologist saying the heat waves were over for the year. Could the models have been wrong? Gasp!
ReplyDeletecertainly not me... always the chance of a short warmer than normal period
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