The weather forecasts for the Los Angeles area were nearly perfect for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Very strong winds and low relative humidity were predicted by the high-resolution models (such as the NWS HRRR model), with forecast winds greater than 60 mph. The region was bone-dry with little rain during the past months.
The NOAA's HRRR model prediction of wildfire potential on Monday indicated very high values in the Pacific Palisades region (see below). It is hard to imagine doing better.
The National Weather Service put out an ominous forecast for the danger of wildfire. I blogged about it on Monday because I was quite concerned.
Yet with all this warning, a huge fire (actually three major fires) occurred with at least 5 deaths. Over a thousand homes were destroyed. The damage will easily be in the billions of dollars. And the story is not over yet.
Did local governments take sufficient steps to stop this well-predicted disaster? Should Southern California Edison have been more aggressive in turning off power?
Update
The area of the Palisade fire this afternoon is shown below, with a current size of about 16,000 acres.
There are two other large fires, the Easton and Hurst fires.
Wednesday Max Wind Through Noon
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Even Edison's own maps this AM showed that large areas near the fires (and strong winds) were still energized.
Just frustrating..... such good weather predictions and still such unfortunate outcomes. We need to do better.
Great post Cliff. And an accurate forecast. Apocalyptic event. You begin to wonder if multiple fires were intentionally ignited by rogue actors. The "fuels" were certainly there and I'm getting a suspicion of a force of nefarious actors throwing the match on the fuel and walking away watching it burn. We will know in time, hopefully.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, SoCal Edison is beholden to stockholders, much like PSE is here. Ratepayers and communities come second. A strong argument for PUDs. To draw a local parallel: in the aftermath of last November's windstorm, PSE customers fared far worse than customers in PUD territory.
ReplyDeleteAfter the 2018 Camp Fire, prioritizing shareholder value over safety is no longer a very likely explanation in my opinion. PG&E booked $30 BILLION in costs related to that fire, including a $13.5 billion legal settlement.
DeleteIn other word's, hypothetically preserving 1-2 days worth of revenue by not de-energizing cost them over a decade's worth of profits.
Every utility in the US saw that. They're far too greedy to intentionally choose such a wildly imbalanced risk-reward option.
Negligence or malfeasance such as due to lacking a clear de-energization policy is more plausible.
How would you compare/contrast this with what happened in Lahaina?
ReplyDeleteCinder blocks and/or stucco should be the new normal for housing construction in California. Roofs should be metal or tile. No trees near the house.
ReplyDeletePeriodic wildfires are a natural part of the lifecycle of the southern California chaparral ecosystem. Wet conditions promote shrub and bush growth. Sooner or later, dry conditions burn that growth off.
ReplyDeleteThe topography of the hills and valleys in that area of California causes them to act as wind strakes directing the flow of air into the urbanized areas to the west and south of the shrub and bush-covered hills.
Sooner or later, a wildfire was going to be sparked by some ignition source, either natural or man-made, and then be hugely amplified by strong winds, sending burning embers well beyond any fire barriers which might have been constructed between the hills and the urbanized areas.
The only possible means of avoiding this huge disaster would have been to use only non-combustible materials for construction of every house and building in the path of the wildfire.
You did your job, as did the NWS.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is arson, but watching the firefighters battle the house fires with Christmas lights on trees lit up in the front yards (power still on) was mind boggling. Power was shut off miles away but not where the actual fire was.
ReplyDeleteIf the fire started as a backyard fire as so far stated, what role did forest management practices play, versus the relevance of power lines? In Hawaii it was powerline and brush... here it seems to be human and then poor forest management and fire prevention by homeowners and the state. Comment?
ReplyDeleteCliff, do you a preliminary analysis on whether climate change caused or impacted these fires? Using climate change as a reason for every natural disaster seems to be the norm.
ReplyDelete