January 12, 2025

Increasing Winds Threaten Southern California

 Let me say at the onset, that the threat is nothing like last week, but strong winds today and powerful winds tomorrow are a serious problem....both in dealing with current fires and for starting new ones.

The National Weather Service is again putting out a strong message (see below),

These warnings need to be taken seriously, including shutting down the power to some areas.

Winds have accelerated today, with maximum gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains and 40-50 mph at lower elevations around Malibu (see below)

The strong wind are generally from the northeast, a classic of Santa Ana conditions.


Looking at the winds observed at Topanga Canyon near Malibu, one can see that the winds today are strong but not the equal of January 7-8.



Now lets examine the surface wind gust forecasts from the relatively high resolution HRRR model.  Keep in mind that the orange and reds indicate serious winds (50 mph and more).

Monday morning at 8 AM, shows strong winds reaching the coastal zone around Oxnard and Ventura.  Lesser but serious winds over northern Orange County.


By 10 AM Tuesday winds will be really cooking over the mountains and the lower elevation Ventura area.  The power should have been off for the previous 12 hours and for the rest of that day.


The region of strongest winds are within the responsibility of Southern CA Edison.   I hope they are more responsible that the Los Angeles folks.  That means Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs).   Their web page worries me....





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Increasing Winds Threaten Southern California

 Let me say at the onset, that the threat is nothing like last week, but strong winds today and powerful winds tomorrow are a serious proble...