Let me say at the onset, that the threat is nothing like last week, but strong winds today and powerful winds tomorrow are a serious problem....both in dealing with current fires and for starting new ones.
The National Weather Service is again putting out a strong message (see below),
These warnings need to be taken seriously, including shutting down the power to some areas.
Winds have accelerated today, with maximum gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains and 40-50 mph at lower elevations around Malibu (see below)
The strong wind are generally from the northeast, a classic of Santa Ana conditions.
Looking at the winds observed at Topanga Canyon near Malibu, one can see that the winds today are strong but not the equal of January 7-8.
Now lets examine the surface wind gust forecasts from the relatively high resolution HRRR model. Keep in mind that the orange and reds indicate serious winds (50 mph and more).
Monday morning at 8 AM, shows strong winds reaching the coastal zone around Oxnard and Ventura. Lesser but serious winds over northern Orange County.
The region of strongest winds are within the responsibility of Southern CA Edison. I hope they are more responsible than the Los Angeles folks. That means Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPSs). Their web page worries me....
From the Jan. 12 WSJ, by Allysia Finley
ReplyDeleteThe Los Angeles Department of Water and Power in 2019 sought to widen a fire-access road and replace old wooden utility poles in the Topanga Canyon abutting the Palisades with steel ones to make power lines fire- and wind-resistant. In the process, crews removed an estimated 182 Braunton’s milkvetch plants, an endangered species.
The utility halted the project as state officials investigated the plant destruction. More than a year later, the California Coastal Commission issued a cease-and-desist order, fined the utility $2 million, and required “mitigation” for the project’s impact on the species.
SCE power shutoff page now indicates 50k (1%) of customers shut off with an additional ~500k (9.5%) under consideration..
ReplyDeleteIt looks like they are starting to shut down power.
ReplyDeleteWhat's to explain all this dry weather over Washington and Oregon, now holding all the way into the month of February? Why is the ridge so close to the coast? Is all the active weather being pushed off until March and April?
ReplyDelete