I have held off mentioning this because I did not want to "cry wolf", but there is an increasing chance that some of you might see some auroral activity tonight.
The latest guidance from the NOAA Space Weather Center (YES, NOAA!!) indicates the critical index of potential auroral activity (Kp) has now reached 6, which I have found to be the minimum required for even a minor light show around here (see plot below).
The updated Kp forecast takes the index to nearly 7 between 8 and 11 PM tonight...see below.
The big question is clouds. Right now, there are some high clouds overhead (see image around 6 PM), which would be fatal for good viewing, but the latest animation suggests the clouds will be through in 3 hours.
We have a chance! I will certainly be going outside for a look around 10-11PM tonight. Good aurora hunting!
Did anyone see the aurora? I plum forgot to look! I was tired from my trip to CA...
ReplyDeleteHow does it look for tonight, the 16th?
ReplyDeleteDry storm today up in Western Whatcom County. Relative humidity fell <20% with dew point temperatures in the 10s. Gusty outflow winds, as well. Seems like April is typically the month we see the lowest RH values around here.
ReplyDeleteCliff FYI:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025/04/16/national-weather-service-buyouts-staff-shortages-trump-administration/
Looked for it about 9:30 Wednesday. Nothing visible.
ReplyDeleteI went and looked on the 16th around 10 pm. No show.
ReplyDeleteI've lived here since 98 and other than the recent "Oh my gosh" event at while back and once in Yakima when I was in the Army, I've never seen them here at any other time
ReplyDeleteIronically, every time I have seen an aurora, it was chance- I had not heard any prediction of it. I have seen them only 4 times, I think. Every time I looked for an aurora based on a prediction, I did not see anything! The best one I ever saw was in October 2004, I think, right over my place in Bothell. Second best was in B.C., on a mountaineering trip.
ReplyDelete