Below-Normal Wildfire Year so Far

Even with a relatively dry spring,  cumulative wildfire acreage in Washington State is currently below normal.  

You read that right, below normal.

Interestingly, the dry condition may have even contributed to the modest wildfire totals so far this year.

To start, consider the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (DNR) acres burned statistics for Washington State (below).  This year is very low...the second lowest since 2015.

Currently, there are only two significant wildfires burning in Washington right now, and both are relatively small:  the Pomas and Barstow Road fires (see map below).

While the wildfire season has been restrained so far, spring precipitation has been below normal, and temperatures have been above normal (see plots below).  

Western Washington has been particularly dry, with the Columbia basin modestly below normal.

So, how could the wildfire area be less with warmer and drier conditions?

Because wildfire generation is more complicated than communicated in the media, such as the Seattle Times.

To get a wildfire, you need ignition, sufficient fuels, dry fuels, and supportive meteorological conditions, with wind being the most important.

Precipitation during late winter and spring is important for producing bountiful light fuels, such as grasses and range-type vegetation.

Rainfall deficit has resulted in normal to lower than normal amounts of annual vegetation over much of the region, something shown by the USDA Fuelcast site (see graphic below).

Last weekend, I explored the situation in the hills north of Teanaway, WA on the eastern side of the Cascades.  Grass productivity was less than I have seen in recent years, and much of it was still green in forested areas (see pictures below).

So we start with a light to normal fuel load over much of the region.

What about ignitions?  

 Many utility companies are stating they will be more aggressive with strategic power shut-offs, which should help.   But what about lightning-initiated fires, which are often in remote areas and difficult to extinguish?

The extended precipitation forecast this summer is for drier than normal conditions (see below).  Since thunderstorms are the big precipitation producers for much of the summer (particularly east of the Cascade crest), this implies fewer thunderstorms.

Which means fewer lightning starts and fewer ignitions.  This implies less wildfire activity.

August and September are generally our big wildfire months.   The European Center's prediction of precipitation anomaly (difference from normal) is near normal for August (except north of the border) and perhaps wetter than normal over western Washington in September (see below).   Not very threatening.

All in all, I don't think there is much reason to expect an above-normal wildfire season over Washington, even with the teeth gnashing in a certain local paper.

David Horsey, Seattle Times

Alaska Wildfire Smoke Reaches the Pacific Northwest

The visible satellite imagery this morning clearly showed a plume of smoke aloft extending southward over eastern Washington:

This smoke originated from some large fires over Alaska and northern Canada, as shown by the AirNow graphic:

Most of this smoke remained aloft, but some surfaced east of the Cascade crest, resulting in moderate air quality (yellow dots).

Why did the smoke push down in the Northwest?  

Because a ridge of high pressure developed over the eastern Pacific and winds are northwesterly on the eastern side of such features (see upper level (500 hPa pressure, about 18,000 ft) map at 5 PM Sunday).

Fortunately, the pattern is already changing, with the air flow turning more westerly, pushing the smoke to the east.  Expect better air quality aloft this week, including a turn to cooler, wetter weather.

Finally, I should note that there is relatively little smoke contribution from local wildfires in Washington State.  Today, there are only three modest fires in or near Washington State (see map).

The slowly growing 1000-acre Pomas fire near Lake Chelan, the 2000-acre Barstow Road fire burning in grass and farmland, and the 3700-acre Rowena fire burning in grass and logging debris.  The Rowena fire is nearly completely contained. 

As I will describe in a future blog, it has been a below-normal wildfire year so far in Washington State.

 

Summer Snow

It is now officially summer.

It is now snowing in the mountains above approximately 5000 ft.

Here are some recent cam shots at and near Paradise on Mount Rainier.  Paradise is around 5400 ft above sea level.

The latest model forecast predicts up to a half-foot of snow above 6000 ft.

At Stampede Pass at 4000 ft in the central WA Cascades it is raining and 38F.

Perhaps not the best day for a hike.  Tomorrow will be far better.

Major Errors in Seattle Times ClimateLab Article on Sea-level Rise

My frustration with the often false, misleading, and exaggerated information pushed by the Seattle Times ClimateLab is frequently expressed in this blog, but the tall tales provided this week is worth a rating of at least four Pinocchios.  

The story suggests that the Samish Tribe of NW Washington has to "race" to document their heritage sites because rising sea level and "intensifying storm surges" remove any chance to  understand their significance."   

In reality, none of this is true.

Using the map in the article, here is the region of Samish tribal lands (see below).  

The Seattle Times claims that 

Already, ocean waters around Puget Sound have risen some 9 inches since 1899 and climatologists expect the waters to rise perhaps a foot or more by 2050. This will cause coastal flooding and erosion, both of which will also be made worse by intensifying storms throughout the region.

This is totally wrong and contradicts observations and the best science.

First, there is no evidence...none...that storms are intensifying in the region.  All studies, including one done by the UW Climate Impacts Group, contradict this.  I have done research on this subject as well, including a careful study of climate model projections.   

NO INCREASE IN STORMS.  The Seattle Times' claim is in error.

Second, the Seattle Times used the wrong sea level rise information.  

Sea level rise is NOT uniform over western Washington and is much less in the northern waters where the Samish tribe is located.

Why?  Because of the effects of the glaciers, which were thicker and heavier to the north.  The weight of glaciers pushed the land down...and it is still rebounding.

Let's consider how much sea level has changed at the Lummi Reservation near Bellingham.  There is a NOAA measurement site right there at Cherry Point (see below).

There is NO SEA LEVEL RISE.  In fact, sea level is FALLING slightly.  

Going further south, here is the sea level change at Friday Harbor.  Sea level is rising there...but much less than claimed by the Seattle Times.

How much?  About 1.2 mm a year, or about 4 inches in 86 years.  You will note the sea level trend is not increasing over time.  No acceleration due to global warming.

A good estimate of the rise of sea level over the Lummi domain would be an average of Bellingham and Friday Harbor, so about 2 inches in 86 years.  

That is about 0.023 inches per year.    

The Seattle Times suggested that sea level will rise about a foot by 2050 over Lummi lands.

Reality, based on the best observations, is 0.57 inches (.023* 23 years).  Yes, about HALF AN INCH.

This is what the Lummi Tribe will have to "race" against.

False information, exaggeration, and hype.  This is what advocate-funded "journalism" gets you.  

The Seattle Times is failing our community by promoting such misinformation.

 

March in June

 If you were thinking of going on a hike on Friday or Saturday, think again.

Early spring weather---cool and wet--will take over a few days starting on Friday.

Consider the predicted temperatures in Seattle (below).  Only 61F on Friday and 63F on Saturday.  Normal highs should be in the low 70s.

But if you want a real shocker, consider Stampede Pass at 4000 ft in the central Washington Cascades.  Highs only in the mid-40s and lows in the 30s on Friday and Saturday.

Are you sitting down?  The models are going for substantial SNOW above 5000 ft (see accumulated snowfall through Saturday evening below).

Even normally warm Yakima will get chilly, with lows in the 40s on Saturday and Sunday, with highs only reaching around 70°F for a few days.

Precipitation will be substantial for this time of the year, with the mountains getting hit particularly hard (see the predicted totals through Sunday at 5 AM below).  An inch in some places.

But the REALLY crazy precipitation will be in Oregon, where up to 3 inches will fall.  Nuts.

Why such unseasonable cold and wet weather?    An unusually strong upper-level Pacific low will move over our region on Friday and Saturday (see below)

This cool, moist period will help suppress any wildfire starts, resulting in a continuation of a BELOW-AVERAGE wildfire season in Washington State.   

Do me a favor....don't tell the Seattle Times ClimateLab folks about this....it will ruin their day.

The Truth About Minimum Temperature Increases

 The Seattle Times this week published an article, Seattle Nights Are Getting Hotter, that irresponsibly exaggerates the effects of global warming on minimum temperatures in our region.

This sponsored "journalism" by the infamous Seattle Times ClimateLab, is based on a report by a well-known climate change advocacy group, Climate Central.

Before I get a dozen strident emails from climate activists, let me note that global warming, forced by increasing CO2 and other greenhouse gases, is occurring.   The science is clear on this---and I have published many papers on this topic.

At this point, such greenhouse gas warming is on the order of 1.2°C--a little over 2°F.  

Not the end of the world.  

But that is not what is being communicated by the Seattle Times.  

They prominently display a figure from Climate Central that shows an EXPONENTIAL increase in the number of warm nights (see below) using the proprietary CLIMATE SHIFT INDEX.

As we will see, this is scary nonsense.

Why don't they show you changes in temperature?  Because those are unimpressive.

The Seattle Times starts by highlighting the "heat wave" of June 7-9 of this month as an "example" of what will happen in a warming world.  

Just silly.  This was a run-of-the-mill warm period--the kind of short-term warmth that has been observed frequently in the past.

Let me demonstrate this to you.

Below are the temperatures of the last month, with the observed highs and lows shown by the blue bars, and the extreme highs and lows by red and light blue shading.  The brown shading indicates the normal daily range.  During the past month, we have experienced both warmer and cooler than normal periods.  June 8-9 was warmer than normal, but no high temperature records were broken.  

Of the past 30 days, 22  days had low temperatures below the normal lows.    You note the Seattle Times did not point it out.

Of the 30-day warm periods in June, the three days of June 6-9, 2025, came in 47th. Stop the presses!

But it is worse than that.

SeaTac Airport is the last place you would want to use temperature to understand global warming.

Why?  Because of the profound warming influence of the construction of the third runway and massive development in and near the airport. A large (cooling) vegetated area was removed and replaced with a huge area of concrete.

You want proof of the impact of the development?  Here is the plot of summer nighttime mean minimum temperatures at SeaTac.  I have indicated (red bar) the period of construction.  Notice the shift upward?

The mean temperature was roughly 54°F before and 57°F after.   3F increase.

Now compare to the Olympic Airport, where no third runway was added and development was far less (below).

No big jump.  Summer minimum increased from about 48F to 50°F.  Yes, there is warming, but it is not abrupt or extreme.  You would hardly notice this.

Finally, the rapidly rising number of warm nights shown on the Climate Central plot is based on meteorological sleight of hand.  

They start by using an inappropriate station (SeaTac), in which development has caused substantial warming.  Then, they don't show temperature changes (which would not have impressed), but their "climate shift index", based on their artificial (and incorrect) assumptions of changes in probability distributions.   

This index exaggerates change, since only a very small temperature increase can radically increase the probabilities of exceeding some extreme value.  

Very deceptive and wrong.

The Northwest Dry Spell Will Soon End

This has been a relatively dry spring, although far from record-breaking.

For example, in Seattle, the precipitation total from March 22 through June 13 was below normal by roughly two inches.   However, the 2025 spring rainfall was not even close to the lowest precipitation total on record, with 34 years having less spring rainfall.

Below is the plot of spring precipitation (March 22-June 13) since the 1940s.  The trend is up, strongly suggesting that global warming is NOT associated with dry springs at Seattle.  

You can see that this year was low, but not even close to the driest year on record.

The models are insistent that rain is on the way after the next few dry days.

The reason is a deep upper-level trough will move over our region later this week, something shown by the European Center forecast for 11 AM on Friday (blue and purple indicate much lower heights than normal at 500 hPa, about 18,000 ft).

Such a trough brings cool, wet weather to our region.

Rain will move in on Thursday and Friday.  The 48-hour total ending Thursday at 5 PM is relatively light over Washington.

The 48h ending Saturday at 5 PM is considerably wetter in the mountains, with light rain over central Puget Sound.

More rain will follow (the 48 h ending 5 PM Tuesday is shown).

Putting it all together, the totals from this morning to 5 PM on June 26 are impressive for this time of the year.

Let me note that no heat waves are expected for the next two weeks, with the temperature being chilly next Friday and Saturday.

 
Finally, let me note that this spring has not brought serious cold waves like the previous years.  Cold waves can damage important crops such as cherries.   

The plot of temperatures at Wenatchee (below) illustrates this fact. No major cold excursions!

Without major spring cold waves, the WA State cherry farmers expect an excellent and sustained harvest.

Good news for all cherry lovers (like myself).

Iranian/Israel Weather

 With the outbreak of hostilities in Iran, it is of interest to examine weather conditions over the region.

The visible image earlier today shows cloud-free skies over that country, which is obviously beneficial for those looking for targets. 

The models show such fair conditions continuing, with some clouds building during he warmer period of the day.  To illustrate, here is the cloud forecast around 4 PM Iran time tomorrow.

Surface air temperatures during the day are very warm.  Here are the high temperatures from yesterday.  Around 110°F in the southern part of the country, cooling to around 90°F in the north.

In Tehran, temperatures should rise to around 100°F each day, with virtually no chance of rain.   Few clouds.

The bottom line is that conditions around Iran will be hot with few clouds and no precipitation.  Good visibility will prevail.

Israel will also be mostly cloud-free during daylight hours (see visible image today).

Low clouds are forecast to form in the morning (see below), which might be an issue for their laser-based protective defense "dome" in some locations.

High temperatures in Israel, moderated by the Mediterranean, are more moderate than over Iran, with highs yesterday only around 90F