Being at the end of September, with cooling temperatures and substantial precipitation forecast, it is possible to make a definitive statement about the Washington wildfire season: it is about to end and 2025 will come in below normal.
During the next five days, there will be substantial precipitation across the region (see predicted totals through Wednesday afternoon below), and temperatures west of the Cascades will not get out of the 60s. Much cooler east of the Cascades as well, with no thunderstorms expected.
The fact that there are a few fires burning now should not make one conclude this is an above-normal year. Wildfires are and have been a fixture of the Northwest environment.
But consider actual data.
The figure below shows annual burned acres for Washington State since 2014, with the total for this year so far shown. We are now below any other year, and with rain coming, one can expect only minor increases from the current total.
There is little chance the 2025 total will reach the 10-year average (467,274 acres).
In a future blog, I will discuss this important point in more depth, noting we have experienced a wildfire DEFICIT over the region compared to historical norms.
The Northwest is a place where wildfire is a normal part of the environment...and has been for thousands of years.
Will the Seattle Times acknowledge their errors and retract?
ReplyDeleteCliff, why are you only showing data going back to 2015? There are reliable satellite-based data going back well farther than that. At 133,000 acres so far per NFIC, 2025 might be low compared to the past 10 years. But not compared to the 1990's, when it averaged 86,000 acres per year.
ReplyDeleteI agree that wildfire has been a normal part of our environment for thousands of years. However anybody who has lived here 40 years (as I have), knows that the past 10 years have not been business as usual.
jerry....2015 was available from the NWCC website. Why only go back to the 1990s? Go back 100 or 150 or 200 years and the numbers DWARFED current values. I will blog about it this week..cliff
DeleteI will concede that this was a below average fire season, but the cumulative acreage of active fires listed on the Watch Duty app far exceeds the data posted. Right now there are active fires listed with a cumulative acreage of over 153,000, as compared with 122,000 as stated on the graph.
ReplyDeleteThanks cliff. Us on eastside of cascades like the fact the low will be pushing moisture from south. Hoping the models arent over doing the amounts though. NWS spokane discussion says there are several things that have to line up. They say they are not convinced yet this will enough to put out the fires or end fire season i guess. "Pattern looks favorable for most areas to receive a tenth, but early prognosis for season ending rains looks more localized that widespread at this time."
ReplyDeleteI am rooting for you and your models to be more right. Lol
I don't understand how a low can "push moisture from the south". Can you explain this further?
DeleteTo put it very simply, the air movement around a low center is COUNTERCLOCKWISE in the Northern Hemisphere. So when the low is centered to the WEST of us as in this case, the air movement sweeps around the low center and comes up from the south.
DeleteI can honestly say i never whiffed smoke up by bellingham awl yeer. Thats a new one comparing to last few years when had to go to az for a few weeks to breathe.
ReplyDeleteIt is great news that wildfire acreage is below average again this year. Perhaps some credit goes to the brave men and women fighting these fires and what firefighters have learned that has helped them better contain wildfires over the years.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the actual number of wildfires over the last few years is rising. The plot is very scattered but the trend line is up.
I can think of other factors that compound the complexity i6: attitudes towards active fire sppression, evolving fire fighting technology and tactics, available resources, changes in land use and forest ecology, all overlaid with multi-decadal oscillations in PNW weather, impacts from AGW, and the question of how much fire acreage was not reported in decades past simply because nobody knew ot cared.
ReplyDeleteWe have a very old meteorologist lives close by Bellingham, hell he may even be a million years old. If he wears a white hat it’s a sign of approaching rain. (Mr mount Baker) Did so on Friday and today we’re wet. Fun fact the local indians could read his quirky signaling too
ReplyDelete