It is not as powerful as the "bomb cyclone" of last November, but it is impressive for this time of the year.
Our first significant Pacific cyclone of the season.
The sea level pressure forecast for 5 PM today (Monday) shows the low center clearly, with a respectable central pressure of 980 hPa
The latest UW WRF forecasts are in....so let me show you what should happen.
Tomorrow (Tuesday) morning at 11 AM, the deepening low will be west of Vancouver Island, with an intense pressure difference to the south of the low...which means strong winds. A strong front, with substantial pressure differences and winds, will be along our coast.
This low will not be in a hurry to leave us and is nearly stationary at 11 PM Tuesday.
Winds will get quite gusty late tomorrow afternoon and during the evening. According to Seattle WindWatch, winds will gust to about 30 mph over Seattle later on Tuesday.
And the plot of predicted wind gusts at 8 PM Tuesday shows very strong winds (40-50 kt) over Northwest Washington and along the coast. This early in the fall, you can expect some branches down and scattered power outages.
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Hey Cliff, love your posts but could you try and include key's for your colored maps. They are not self explanatory without them. Thanks
ReplyDeleteThe maps at the top of the article showing the atmospheric pressure do not show scale or legend, but if you zoom in, you can see numbers in little boxes (millibars) with a low pressure in the center, and significantly higher numbers as you move away from the center which among other things indicates high winds likely. The bottom two maps show expected winds, and rainfall, if you click on those maps you do see a scale.
DeleteThanks for the heads up! Not thrilled about the gusty winds, but today's (Monday's) rain was appreciated.
ReplyDeleteIt parked itself in the wrong spot. The energy and moisture is coming from west to east. RAIN SHADOW for us here in Okanogan Valley.
ReplyDeleteCliff, just 3 days ago, the models showed Okanogan Valley getting wetting rains, now basically nothing. Think I've couted 20 drops so far. How did the models get it so wrong just 3 days ago? The center needed to be little more south and closer to coast to help us over hear on the dry side.
Yes I hope we get a really wet winter. We're due for one.
ReplyDeletePast years winter weather does not affect future years winter weather. The chances of a wet winter is the same every year.
Delete@JHK: To your latter point, that’s not entirely accurate, though, is it? La Niña and El Niño influence general precipitation trends in this area, so if we know to which we’re leaning, or neither, we can somewhat predict that there may be somewhat more or less precipitation in winter.
DeleteThe past couple of days have finally felt like autumn. On September 29, at my location in Bellingham, I measured a 30mph wind gust - the highest since April 10; the barometric pressure fell to 29.65inHg (altimeter setting) - the lowest since March; and 0.91" of precipitation - the largest single-day total since 3/23.
ReplyDeleteThis is why I never leave the safety of my aunts basement
ReplyDeleteHow many aunts do you have?
DeleteThis rain has been a welcome respite and about time. I may well swap over to flannels this week. Currently at 5:34PM on Wednesday, it's raining in T-town. Was dry through much of the afternoon, and some sun, but rains have returned.
ReplyDeleteMade a pot of chicken and dumplings last night. Perfect for a cool/wet day. Will have more of the same tonight for dinner.