A Below-Normal Wildfire Year

 Being at the end of September, with cooling temperatures and substantial precipitation forecast, it is possible to make a definitive statement about the Washington wildfire season:  it is about to end and 2025 will come in below normal.  

During the next five days, there will be substantial precipitation across the region (see predicted totals through Wednesday afternoon below), and temperatures west of the Cascades will not get out of the 60s.  Much cooler east of the Cascades as well, with no thunderstorms expected.

This meteorology will close out the fire season, something supported by the guidance from the Forest Service Northwest Interagency Coordination Center, which predicts a dramatic drop in fuel flammability over the eastern slopes of the Cascades (see example below, where gray shading shows the normal values and the blue line shows the predicted values).

The fact that there are a few fires burning now should not make one conclude this is an above-normal year.   Wildfires are and have been a fixture of the Northwest environment.

But consider actual data.  

The figure below shows annual burned acres for Washington State since 2014, with the total for this year so far shown.  We are now below any other year, and with rain coming, one can expect only minor increases from the current total.  

There is little chance the 2025 total will reach the 10-year average (467,274 acres).

Similar results are found on the WA DNR website, which shows burned area for a subset of the above (the lower-elevation DNR lands).  This year has been below normal.

The fact that we had a modest wildfire year, even with a drier than normal summer, shows that the controls of wildfire are more complex than the trends in one or two meteorological parameters.  For example, wind is as important as temperature and moisture.

In a future blog, I will discuss this important point in more depth, noting we have experienced a wildfire DEFICIT over the region compared to historical norms.  

The Northwest is a place where wildfire is a normal part of the environment...and has been for thousands of years.