At its essence, it is ideological, anti-science, political, and self-serving.
To see how nonsensical and anti-science this effort is, consider the latest drought map for Washington State (released yesterday, and shown below).
It states that 1,778,920 King County residents, many of whom are dealing with flooded roads, failing levees, and sodden fields, are affected by drought.
Perhaps the national drought folks should speak to one of our local cows, many of which have been moved to escape flooding (see below)
Our rivers are mostly running above normal levels, some at near record levels (black dots, particularly east of the Cascades):
Reservoirs are way above normal. The critical Yakima storage system....the fixation of the drought folks for a long time.... is not only above normal, but at levels commonly found at the end of winter.
Seattle's reservoirs are way above normal (see below) as are most of the others in the region.
What about snowpack, another fixation of the drought folks? Good news, there has been lots of recent snow in the mountains, and most ski areas are open for Christmas.
This blog will go into the problem in greater depth than my analysis of last week.
The center of what might be called the Drought Exaggeration Industry is the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, which is associated with the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The most viewed product of this National Drought Center is the Drought Monitor graphic, the national view of which is shown below.
To see how nonsensical and anti-science this effort is, consider the latest drought map for Washington State (released yesterday, and shown below).
Most of Washington State is "abnormally dry" or in drought, with severe or extreme drought over the eastern slopes of the Cascades and the far portion of the state (see below).
As shown below, this is total nonsense and inconsistent with hard data.
Precipitation has been above normal, soils are moist, rivers are above normal levels, reservoirs are above normal, and snowpack is in decent shape.
But this wacky website does not end there. It claims that 2.4 million Washington residents are in drought:
But the national drought meisters don't stop there! They inform us that in KING COUNTY, 3266 cattle and 755 sheep are in drought. And that thousands of acres of King County hay are in drought.
Perhaps the national drought folks should speak to one of our local cows, many of which have been moved to escape flooding (see below)
For the past 90 days, precipitation over Washington has been near normal (light green or yellow) or above normal (blue and purple).
Soil moisture is above normal over much of the state and MUCH above normal over the eastern Cascades slopes, where the drought monitor graphic has moderate to severe drought. Go figure.
Our rivers are mostly running above normal levels, some at near record levels (black dots, particularly east of the Cascades):
Reservoirs are way above normal. The critical Yakima storage system....the fixation of the drought folks for a long time.... is not only above normal, but at levels commonly found at the end of winter.
What about snowpack, another fixation of the drought folks? Good news, there has been lots of recent snow in the mountains, and most ski areas are open for Christmas.
Below are the latest numbers, which show a stunning recovery from a few weeks ago. The snowpack feeding the Columbia River is now ABOVE NORMAL, and the snowpack for most of the western Cascades is 75% of normal. More snow is expected during the next few days.
By any rational analysis, there is no drought going on.
There will be plenty of water for all uses. Furthermore, this is a La Niña year, which is usually good for water resources.
The unsupportable and unscientific drought talk is very destructive and counterproductive.
It induces fear and worry in the population, particularly the most psychologically vulnerable. It results in poor decision-making.
Who are some folks doing this?
Some are doing it to promote their politics and ideology. Others to push a climate change agenda, which they either believe in or profit from. Media, such as the Seattle Times Climate Lab, do so for clicks and financial support from activist groups. YouTube and social media channels do it for clicks and advertising revenue.
But whatever their reasons, I hope that the current administration takes a deep look at this drought-pushing enterprise and reforms the government-supported side of the advocacy campaign.
Wishing all of you a good holiday.
Crying wolf is a bad idea
It is simply amazing how poor quality much of the United States' government meteorological output has become.
ReplyDeleteNOAA is becoming a joke. Another whiff on the Christmas Eve "wind storm", as well as the drought nonsense.
ReplyDeleteA look at the NRCS Washington Subbasin map for SWE paints a rather less rosy pictures with most of the state comfortably below the median value for the date with the exception of the North Cascades.
ReplyDelete"Coders" in cubicles, pushing buttons, producing useless numbers.
ReplyDeleteSo where are they getting their data from? Are they selectively picking if from somewhere or is it totally fabricated?
ReplyDeleteYep
ReplyDeleteIt seems that the data represents a longer term view. This is I see for their interpretation of the last week:
ReplyDelete'This Week's Drought Summary
During the last 7-days, strong anomalous ridging over the Aleutians and troughing over the Gulf of Alaska promoted northerly flow across Alaska, leading to below-normal temperatures and little snowfall. Downstream, an unusually strong ridge dominated the flow across the contiguous United States. Between the northeastern Pacific trough and this ridge, strong onshore flow and atmospheric river activity promoted copious amounts of precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, though above-normal temperatures kept snow elevations higher than normal and limited the ability of this precipitation to substantially build early season snowpack across the Cascades, northern Sierras, and northern Rockies.'
Thank you Cliff. You have always been a voice of reason… And in this case a voice of reason in a rainstorm of craziness! Everywhere I go including here on the farm, and everyone I talk to, is wet wet wet with plenty of water stored up to last.
DeleteThank you Cliff! As usual you are a calm and clear voice… In this case a clear voice amidst a rain storm of craziness. Here on the farm it is wet wet wet with plenty of water stored up already despite the fact that it is still 2025 and raining hard outside.
DeleteIn the map of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), note that along the crest north of Leavenworth (or near the triple map point of yellow, orange, green) there are blue circles, meaning >SWE. Meanwhile, south into Kittitas County there are red circles. The healthier weather pattern has been north of the hills seen over Ellensburg when traveling on I-90. 10 miles north of EBRG it has been cloudy, light rains, minor snow. I have not had to shovel snow – yet! This is nothing special. Carry on.
ReplyDeleteOf note: the CPC Drought Information monthly and seasonal outlooks are starkly different from the Drought Monitor. The monthly drought outlook valid for December shows a major reduction/elimination of drought conditions across the state and the seasonal outlook valid thru the end of March predicts that little, if any, of the state will be experiencing any drought by then.
ReplyDeleteCliff: With all due respect to your work, it is difficult to know why the Seattle Times and others would be doing what you accuse them of. Maybe they are simply wrong or not properly informed. To conclude nefarious intent without verifying is something we all should be really careful about. As for what you present as NOAA posting incorrect data is troubling. It's hard to imagine they are being directed to push a climate crisis agenda given the present administration's hostility to it.
ReplyDeleteDo we have any info on groundwater levels? My dad, a hydrogeologist for the Department of Interior, used to check well levels in California to monitor groundwater. He got so annoyed when people would say a drought was over as soon as the surface level got wet.
ReplyDeleteImagine if we had 11 months of above-average precipitation, followed by a month of below-average precipitation, and somebody said, "It's official, we're now in a drought." We'd probably consider that to be bad science. You're basically doing the same thing here, only in reverse. The NWS Climate Information sites show below-average precipitation for the past calendar year in 12 out of 14 western and eastern Washington sites. This includes the past month's rains, which helped but did not completely close the gap.
ReplyDeleteCombine that with the low snowpack that prevailed through most of the past year, including the present, and "abnormally dry" does not seem off base to me.
No, Jerry, that is NOT what I am doing. I am saying that drought now is dependent on current conditions, not what happened previously. Objectively, we are not in drought. Let me show you, with another example. Lets say temperatures were cool for the past year and then a record heat wave occurred. Temperatures are very warm, plants are dying, people are getting six and dying. Should we NOT call it a heat wave because it had been cooler for a while...of course not...cliff
DeleteSpeaking of the wind Christmas Eve, a nothing burger. Was prepared, just in case, and it was predicted as such from K5, sort of.
ReplyDeleteTurned to be a nice drive even with some sun! to Bainbridge from Tacoma as I was spending that evening with my sister.
I found where Cliff got the "wacky website" quotes. Here's their latest statement about King County: https://www.drought.gov/states/washington/county/King. No doubt Cliff has reason to suspect some of his colleagues' motives, but I like the comments here that explore how his harsh portrayal may be a bit simplified.
ReplyDelete