If the sun feels stronger to you right now, it is not your imagination.
And this stronger sun and longer days can result in spikes of warmth during the month of March in our region.
First, let's consider the average solar radiation in Seattle over the year (below). Late February, March, and April are times of rapidly increasing solar radiation at our latitude.
Of course, there are clouds, which reduce surface warming, but even so, March is a time of rapidly increasing solar radiation reaching the surface, as shown by the observed solar energy in 2019 (below).
Some March days have gotten as high as 80F, with many in the 70s. You will also note that the chances of getting really cold (below 20F) end by March 10th.
So, will you get a taste of this welcome warmth this week? Monday will be the warmest day, with rain and cooler conditions by midweek.
The European Center model is going for 58F on Monday, similar to the UW system.
But the warmth will vary over the region, as shown by the temperature forecast for 4 PM on Monday over Washington State (see below). Temperatures will exceed 55F over central and southern Puget Sound country and in the lower elevations of the Columbia Basin.
Some isolated lucky folks (e.g., near Olympia) will get to 60F.
I am planning a nice long run late Monday afternoon...which should be wonderful
I will be happy to consistently ride without gloves and a thick outer layer that act like parachutes. When it's sunny, early spring temperatures play up by about 5 degrees or so, so as long as I'm wearing a dark layer that soaks up the sun, I can comfortably ride without a jacket and gloves when it's in the mid-upper 50's.
ReplyDeleteThis the first winter I can remember where there was ZERO snowfall. Is that concerning to you Cliff?
ReplyDeleteLittle or no lowland. This has happened several times before.
DeleteThis is only the second in our current location where we've had zero measurable snowfall, and the first was last year. Pretty disappointing, and concerning.
DeleteIf you go back 70 years, you will find several occurrences...several decades ago.
DeleteI grew up here, live in Tacoma and it's not all that uncommon for there to be no snow in the lowlands, but that's not a given that we get snow around the sound every year.
DeleteMind you, I'd have loved something like a dusting at the very least, but it just was not cold enough this year for it. Usually, conditions have to be just right, when cold enough to snow down here in Puget Sound, it's typically dry, not wet, whence we'd get snow.
Special circumstances like what happened in 1985 whereby a trough brings in rain, and a very cold front dropped down from Canada's Frazier Valley and the wet front overrode it and snow formed, and lots of it, and to make it worse, it stalled and many areas in the Sound got 12+Ft of the white stuff. Heck, 3 years ago, we actually had a white Christmas. It began to snow Christmas Eve, and by morning, a few feet of the white stuff was on the ground, and the sun was out if I recall.
Remember, we just came off a weakish La Nina so warmer and wetter, typically.
Josh, I think you put your finger on it. Although warm years with no lowland snow in western WA have happened before (I remember a few), this might be the first time it has happened 2 years in a row. That's what global warming is expected to look like. Not unprecedented warmth necessarily, but more frequent warmth.
DeleteThere goes the ski season.
ReplyDeleteWe all had a general idea about the solar radiation but it’s cool to see the actual data. Thank you for sharing this.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, using the same methodology to extend the ENSO-opposition analysis beyond La Niña winters to include all ENSO phases shows that winter 2025–2026 stands out as the most anomalous ENSO-departing winter in the modern lowland Puget Sound record. Ranking winters by the absolute magnitude of the ENSO-opposition index reveals that 2025–2026 is the strongest ENSO-opposed winter at KBLI, KSEA, and KOLM. This exceeds previous notable outliers such as the warm La Niña winters of 1998–1999, 2005–2006, and 2020–2021, as well as cold ENSO-opposed El Niño winters like 1984–1985. The fact that 2025–2026 ranks first across all three major lowland stations indicates that this was not a localized anomaly, but rather a regionally coherent atmospheric pattern that overwhelmed the typical La Niña cooling signal. Overall, when evaluated relative to ENSO state and strength rather than raw temperature alone, winter 2025–2026 emerges as the most strongly ENSO-opposed winter in the post-1977 Puget Sound record.
ReplyDeleteCalling December, January and February our winter months, this past winter was the warmest of record at Wenatchee with record back to the winter of 1912-13. The night time minimums were especially on the warm side. There was a total of about 1 1/2 inches of snow in the downtown area for the three months, with only the winter of 1976-77 having a lesser amount. Considering that this was a La Nina winter, this has to be considered quite unusual.
DeleteYou do know if March comes in like a lame it goes out like a lion
ReplyDeleteThat is the saying alright. And March has certainly come in like a lamb this year. Now we'll just have to wait and see what the lion will bring at month's end.
DeleteWow, what a difference a day makes. Yesterday (Monday) mid to upper 50's and sunny. Today, low 50's and light rain.
ReplyDeleteEvidence spring is almost here, the Cherry Trees are blooming, especially the light pink variety. Likely the Forsythia and Scotch Broom both have already blossomed as they are some of the first signs spring is about here.
But the fact that even the Weather Channel website says in the 50's with in/out light rain/showers, and some periods of sun through roughly the 17th. Not too unusual for this time of the year.
I remember some volatile springs in the past where it gave us pretty much everything and it was cold, including snow showers, but no accumulations as late as early April. One such notable incident was in 2017. A truck spilled on both NB/SB of I-5 at 4th Ave and I-90, forcing folks to go north into Seattle as even the off ramp to 4th Ave was shut down, and it took me 4 Hours to get home to Tacoma, yes, 4 hours, and we did have some snow flurries that day late. One year, I got virtually everything on my way home from downtown Seattle to my apartment on Capitol Hill. Walking home, it rained, hailed, snowed, thunder and lightning etc. That is spring around these parts.