For those worried about Pacific Northwest drought, I have some news that should give them substantial comfort: substantial rain and snow will return to the Pacific, accompanied by cool temperatures.
And not a hint of any heatwaves. In fact, much cooler temperatures are expected.
So get your rain jacket out of the closet, get ready to plant some seeds, and think about delaying that late-May hike.
Let's start with the best, the European Center model forecast for precipitation over the area (below).
The expected precipitation through Wednesday afternoon starts the wetting process:
Importantly, temperatures will cool substantially over the next week, so there will be substantial fresh snow in the Cascades (below). Expect the % of normal snowpack to rise substantially from this late-season snow.
So what is going on?
With the change in season and the transition from La Niña to El Nino, the upper- level pattern has unlocked, and some strong troughs of low pressure will be moving into the Northwest.
To illustrate, below is the forecast upper-level map for Friday morning. An impressive trough of low pressure (blue colors) will build off our coast.
Other modeling systems (like the NOAA GFS) are doing similar things.
Extremely favorable and well-timed for Northwest agriculture and local water resources.
I love that little band of red that extends out over the sound and right over where I happen to live. Might this be the suggestion of a convergence zone forming at some point?
ReplyDeleteWe need a Swamp.gov as a counter to the ubiquitous drought people
ReplyDeleteFormer Seattle resident here, now living in Willamette Valley. I sure hope you're right. There's nothing like this in the NWS forecast for the valley. Slight chance of rain, they say, temperatures in the 70s. Strawberry fields are ripe.
ReplyDeleteCould be hard on the cherry crop!
ReplyDeleteThe forecast for fresh snow in the Cascades is vital. Increasing the snowpack percentage this late in May provides a sustained meltwater source that is essential for both hydropower and ecosystem health during the warmer months.
ReplyDeleteHey Cliff! Good writeup as always. I am curious what your thoughts are on the weather patterns from around Sunday 5/17 to Wednesday 5/20 for the Mt. Baker Area? Selfishly asking as there seems to me a potential for a gap in the precipitation and I have some friends visiting WA then that want to go up on the volcano so trying to advise them if they should still come or visit another time with better weather. Thanks in advance!
ReplyDeleteI notice that the May 7 water supply forecast for the Yakima River Basin remains the same. Junior water districts receive just 52% of their requirements. That forecast was made from existing water supplies in the reservoirs near the first of May and with an anticipation for normal precipitation in May. The outflows from the reservoirs are now slightly more than inflows. The rain will probably help a little, but it's probably more important that predicted temperatures will be lower than normal. We shall see!
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