The forecasts for the next week or so are definitive: we are going to start the summer quite cool and wet.
And the implications for both wildfires, water resources, and agriculture are quite positive.
Let me begin with temperature, showing you the temperature anomalies from normal for the next 15 days from the most skillful system in the world (the AI forecast of the European Center).
Blue indicates below normal (up to 5 F colder than normal), and green indicates even colder anomalies.
For the next five days, the whole region is cold, with some areas of Oregon over 10F colder than normal.
The following five days (through July 2) are colder than normal over the entire region, with British Columbia being the most frigid.
Even colder for the following five days (through July 7).
Importantly, no big heatwave in eastern Washington, so crops will not be stressed. To show this, here are the predicted temperatures at Yakima. Very temperate for the dry side.
And there will be precipitation at times through July 8.
Substantial amounts in the Cascades (up to around 2-3 inches) and large totals in the Rockies (see below). Importantly, even eastern Washington will get some light rain.
Want more good news?
This kind of cool pattern is very favorable for wind energy, as it is associated with substantial westerly winds descending the eastern slopes of the Cascades. To demonstrate this, below are the latest wind generation numbers from Bonneville (below)
Wind energy generation (the green line) surged upwards as temperatures cooled. Furthermore, energy use (red line) has dropped substantially as air conditioning demands have declined with the cooler temperatures.
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Ok. Can we get our climate scam fuel taxes back Olympia has been siphoning off to appease the global warming gods
ReplyDeleteWorse-!gonreadnthe spending report- includes speed bumps in Seward park, environmental justice, and rain gear for the Snoqualmoentribe- flat out corruption
DeleteCliff, Accuweather and Weather Channel forecast highs in high 60's through most of next week in Seattle, hitting the 70's by Friday. That's a bit warmer than the NWS forecast that you show, and just a few degrees F below normal for the time of year. What do you consider more likely? One reason I ask is that you have criticized the performance of NWS forecasting in past posts.
ReplyDeleteSo far this June rainfall has been below normal along the Cascade east slopes with a rather prolonged warm, dry period through the middle of the month. Cool, more moist conditions recently have lowered the fire danger but rain amounts from this current storm have been minimal so far and the predictions of amounts along the east slopes for the next week do not indicate a significant amount, mostly less than a quarter of an inch. This means when the next warm, dry period starts, which is forecast to begin around the 4th of July, fire danger will quickly go up again.
DeleteThe July 2 Water Supply forecast for the 2026 irrigation season for the Yakima River Basin continues to show that Senior Water Districts will receive 100% of their requirements but only 56% of normal for the Junior Water Districts.
DeleteHeadline from "Central Oregon Daily News." and no it is NOT fake news. I live in Bend. It is real.
ReplyDeleteBEND, Ore. -- Hundreds of Central Oregon farmers and ranchers are seeing their water deliveries reduced or cut off due to worsening drought conditions.
Streamflows are declining due to this winter’s abysmal snowpack and reservoir storage levels are plummeting. When water supplies decline during drought, the people with the youngest water rights -- also known as junior water rights -- are the first to be curtailed.
It’s happened before -- but not at this scale and never so early in summer.
So far I have got only a measly one tenth of an inch of rain at my place on the Bothell Mill Creek line.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the detailed breakdown. The AI forecast maps are fascinating and provide a much clearer picture than the generic news reports.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm not mistaken, summer starts on Sunday. I'm fine with a cool marine push on the morning of July 5th, if only to quickly push away the battle zone-like air quality of the previous night's "festivities." Too bad we can't use the marine push to clear off the roads as well.
ReplyDelete