It is now clear that our region will experience a short-period heatwave on Sunday and Monday, with the highs in Seattle reaching near 90F and eastern Washington climbing into the upper 90s.
This is after a relatively cool start to June and the expectation of normal temperatures the rest of the month.
A plot of the temperature at SeaTac, with observations (blue bars), and record highs (red) and lows (light blue) shown, indicates that we have generally been cooler than normal this month. Record highs on any day are generally around 90F.
The crazy record high in 2021 is evident at the end of the month.
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To put this month in a better long-term perspective, I have plotted the average maximum temperatures at Seattle from 1-10 June for the past 50 years (a trend line is also plotted).
We have started this month, a bit below normal. But you will notice a small upward trend (brown line) since the 1970s. That could well be the influence of human-caused warming produced by increasing greenhouse gases.
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Eastern WA will also warm, with the Tri-Cities climbing into the upper 90s before cooling into the mid-90s. These are not exceptional temperatures in the central Columbia Basin.
How is the brown line calculated? Is it a least squares fit? Was there a brief period of cooling in the 40s?
ReplyDeleteI'd like to know what would've happened had the exact setup for the historic heatwave occurred in July. Sure, June can see periods of intense heat (as evidenced in 2021), but July is theoretically more favorable for max intensity heat waves. Then again, maybe there was something about the atmospheric conditions of late June that made that heatwave possible, and those conditions aren't quite as present as summer progresses.
ReplyDeleteThis has all the connotations of a mini ice age which ushered in the famine of 1315. Maybe we can radio carbon the Seattle times rain gauge for asymmetries to parallel the era's better
ReplyDeleteAre you suggesting that we could be in for an ice age style event in the coming years?
DeleteIt appears that the taxing from the Climate Commitment Act is having no effect.
ReplyDeletethe first report on spending is horrible; its all money for equity and justice and nothing to cure the evils of factories and commerce https://apps.ecology.wa.gov/publications/documents/2514107.pdf
DeleteShouldn't factories and other commercial entities be responsible for funding their own efforts to go green?
DeleteGetting an Unhealthy Air Quality alert only around Lake Sammamish. Seems weird.
ReplyDeleteThe small upward trend (brown line) since the 1970s could well be the influence of human-caused warming produced by increasing greenhouse gases or a urban heat island effect, or natural variations, or some localized effect, or... Attribution of this very slight, short term warming is beyond our scientific ability at present.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to the return of normal temperatures and precipitation! This heatwave is packing a punch, and I'm saying that as someone who is out at the coast! Our temperatures might not be as warm as those being expirrenced inland, but the humidity is making its presence felt!
ReplyDeleteThe precipitation that was supposed to occur in a few days is gone in the models. The ridge isn't going anywhere. It looks like another stuck pattern.
ReplyDeleteCliff, are you still confident in your forecast of "substantial precipitation" returning to the Pacific Northwest?
ReplyDeleteThe Euro forecast on Windy doesn’t look very “stuck” at the moment. You could try the GFS instead, but you’d also get better forecasts 5+ days out by flipping a coin.
ReplyDeleteActually, the GFS shows rain on the 27th/28th now, too. That makes things interesting.
ReplyDelete