On Thursday around 5:15 PM, a Kenmore Air float plane crashed on the south side of Sucia Island in the San Juans. An image from the final seconds (shown below) does not suggest particularly strong winds at the surface, nor any precipitation.
The weather radar at the time of the incident shows a convective/thunderstorm line just to the south, but with the crash location (indicated by the red arrow) being in the clear.
The thunderstorms in the band were associated with lightning (see map below) for the period immediately before the crash.
There was good reason that the Kenmore Air pilot, headed towards Roche Harbor, went north and east to avoid the incoming thunderstorm cells. He appeared to be circling about, waiting for a weakness in the convective line--but I am not sure of that.
So how severe were the meteorological conditions?
Examining the wind gusts at 5 PM, there was nothing exceptional, with 23 mph near the accident site (Eastsound).
Precipitation with the thunderstorm line was variable, ranging from 0.44 to 0.04 inches on Orcas Island.
The bottom line is that meteorology (a line of thunderstorms) obviously caused a change in the route of the Kenmore aircraft, but there is no direct and obvious causal relationship to the accident. The only possibility one could speculate on was the potential for a lightning strike at a distance.
Juan Brown analyzes the incident involving a Kenmore Air floatplane that attempted a precautionary landing near Sucia Island. By examining radar data and flight patterns, the assessment explores the aeronautical decision-making processes and the environmental conditions that influenced the pilot during the flight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ay4mbqn1ljE
ReplyDeleteThe pilot survived, so he will tell us exactly what happened shortly.
ReplyDeleteSeemed like a loss of control from video
DeleteWe were in Shallow Bay at the time, and Cliff’s analysis is correct. However, there was a lot of lightning and wind prior to the crash. The flight path indicates he was heading down Presidents channel toward Roche Harbor, then did a u turn to come back to Sucia island.
ReplyDelete"... did a u turn ..."
DeleteI'm not a pilot but thought a u turn in a plane is a bad idea!
"thought a u turn in a plane is a bad idea!"
DeleteWhy do you think that?
It is complicated but planes need to "bank" to maintain lift to make a turn. A sharp or tight u-turn like you might do in an auto in a large parking lot will reduce the angle of attack and the lift on the inside-turn wing. [ or something like that :) ]
DeleteRaining in lynden. Westerly radar signature Fall came early. Time to dig out the long johns
ReplyDeleteI was hopeful you might write about this event- thank you!
ReplyDeleteThank you for analyzing this event from a meterological perspective. It will be interesting to hear from the pilot about their experience and the conditions they dealt with firsthand.
ReplyDelete