This year, wildfire acreage in California has been well below average and is being eclipsed by the lightning-initiated wildfires in the Pacific Northwest. The nearly fire-free California situation is evident satelite/ fire image from yesterday (active fires shown by the orange dots).
Lots in Washington and Oregon, very little in California.
In fact, according to official CALFIRE statistics (shown below), the total acreage this year is LESS THAN HALF of the five-year average!
Can you imagine if the wildfire acreage was twice the average? The supposed connection with climate change would be on the front page.
The bottom line is that there is no rapidly increasing globe-warming-induced wildfire trend in California. Such claims are demonstrably false.
Want proof? I asked Google Gemini whether California was having a low wildfire year (see below). Its answer was the OPPOSITE of the truth.
In fact, some media and others are actively pushing the unsupported narrative:
Ready for the Truth?
Let's look at the actual wildfire data for California!
Consider the actual burned area data for the past 30 years (below). A period in which global warming has been occurring.
You see a large trend? I don't.
There was a short period in the early 2020s when unusual meteorology drove some big fires, but the wildfire numbers have declined since then.
This lack of a long-term trend in California wildfire activity actually occurred during a period of increasing human ignitions of wildfires (e.g., from powerlines, arson, etc.).
In fact, the best estimates are that humans have initiated roughly two-thirds of wildfires in California since 1992 (see below). I suspect these ignitions have had little to do with global warming. At the same time there there has been an invasion of non-native flammable grasses.
The bottom line is that there is no rapidly increasing globe-warming-induced wildfire trend in California. Such claims are demonstrably false.
Finally, let me note that you can not believe AI inquiries on this topic.
Want proof? I asked Google Gemini whether California was having a low wildfire year (see below). Its answer was the OPPOSITE of the truth.
I then told it was wrong, and it admitted it was fibbing
I wish the Seattle Times, YouTube Channel climate activists, and others would be willing to look at the data and acknowledge they have been providing inaccurate information regarding the climate/wildfire connection.
40-year IT veteran here.. my advise is to never ask of, or listen to, anything from AI. Just shut it off.
ReplyDeleteYou are commenting on an article that says California fires are burning 30 times more area than 40 years ago. You may be right that this is not true but your graph of past burned area only goes back 30 years. Can you show a graph of area burned say for the past 50 years or longer?
ReplyDeleteThe Discover article is covering a recent paper described in a UCLA press release. The press release headline is repeated in the Discovery article headline. From what I can tell, the paper is about change in area burned by "high severity fires". They pointed to two main causes: 1) an increase in fuel density (fire prevention efforts contributing factor), 2) drier fuels (climate warming contributing factor). The PNAS article is behind a paywall, but the abstract indicates a shift to more high severity fires in 2012....so it might be that an extended period of drought conditions beginning around 2010 - with an uncertain contribution amount from long term global warming might be another contributing factor to #2.
DeleteIn the orange-dot map, just beneath the "SH" of Washington, there is a smoke plume. The GOES WEST from yesterday at 2201 shows this clearly. Lightening on July 15 hit the SE side of the "Three Queens" just northwest of the north end of Kachess Lake. Yesterday (8/8) winds caused an expansion. The smoke came over the Kittitas Valley mid-day at about 6,000 feet. Quite impressive. Still up there but lowering into the Valley. {an AI-free comment}
ReplyDeleteIt is truly awesome that California has had a low fire year. But what about the rise in heat this year in the oceans - seems like it is at its historical highs? Seems like a problem?
ReplyDeleteThe ocean temp has been consistently lower than average off the Wa coast this summer- how does this effect the frequency of arsonists setting fires? Asking for a friend.
DeleteNo correlation, I expect. It just depends on how bored the arsonist is, and how psychopathic.
DeleteI am surprised- ChatGpt said it’s lighter than normal
ReplyDeleteGreat analysis. To answer the question why hasn't is the media not telling the story? Answer = $$$$$ clicks! We all know the media exists to make money.
ReplyDeleteUnlike the honest, God fearing fossil fuel industry
DeleteHave you observed an above average fire season elsewhere?
ReplyDeleteBig Climate is at it again! Darn you, Al Gore!
ReplyDeleteBad news sells. Good news doesn't, unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteAlso it is important to emphasize the difference between number of (fire) starts and acres burned. They can be very different. For example, there are generally more human caused fires, but those started by lightning are often in remote areas and get much larger, so they often account for more square miles burned.
ReplyDeleteAI wasn't "fibbing," it was just wrong because it is bad at gathering relevant data. Especially Gemini. ChatGPT gives the right answer. I wouldn't trust it either, but it's much better than Gemini.
ReplyDeleteAlso, 2021 and 2024 really skew the 5 year average. 2026 is above the 20-year median, and actually higher than 2020 ytd, which ended up being the worst for season on record. This year isn't a good year. It's just not extreme like some we have seen recently. And it's really too early to be talking about this.
Even the dastardly Drought Monitor shows that California is at worst "Abnormally Dry" while much of the state has no drought whatsoever. Given the putatively hysterical bias of the Drought Monitor, one would be inclined to imagine that precipitation has been at least adequate and that, consequently, wildfire risk has been much lower compared to the literally tinder-dry PNW.
ReplyDeleteA similar chart as shown above but for Washington would show an obvious increase in annual acreage burned.
Also, Oregon has had its worst wildfire season on record and Washington is hot on its heals. Statewide wildfire acreage in Washington has now surpassed 2021 and will easily pass 2021. If the wet season is late to arrive and/or there are more fire starts, even 2015 is not out of the question.
As you suggest, the Drought Monitor is totally unreliable.
DeleteSo, in this case, the drought monitor is showing little to no drought when, in fact, there is significant drought? That's rather an odd position for you to take given the general tenor of your Drought Monitor commentary.
DeleteAgain,,drought monitior is not reliable
DeleteI believe you are absolutely correct in that the media will shriek "climate change" any time we are above average for fires, or with any weather-related disaster. However, to play devil's advocate, you yourself (blog on 7/24/26) said that we would end the fire season in Washington with below average or average acres and fires and now we are well above the 10 year average. California's year round fire season doesn't really get spun up until fall, so I think it's pretty early to draw any conclusions about what the 2026 fire statistics in California are going to be. A few significant Santa Ana wind events could trend those stats the opposite way.
ReplyDeleteCliff, perhaps you help me with this thought. The Ptarmigan Fire is burning in an area that had ABOVE normal snowpack and is ABOVE normal for moisture this year. Yes it did melt out a couple weeks early, but still you can't say this fire is due to low snowpack. Perhaps timing of melt off is more in play than how much there is. Melt off sooner the longer it has to dry out. However, my hypothesis is this. It has been burning in a jungle of downed trees (previous fire killed trees or blowdowns). Whether there is above normal snowpack or precip, the moisture does not reach the fuels in bottom of pile so to speak. It just like a big slash pile, it could be raining for weeks and snow covering it, but if you get flame to the middle protected part, it will burn, and still burn completely due to fuel loading. So the fine fuels dry out, carry file into middle of these piles. This fire though, makes the narrative of low snowpack or drought a false statement. Hart Pass Snotel showed above average snowpack all winter, current YTD moisture is above normal. Yes it did melt just a little early, but nothing extreme. Maybe we should talk about this more.
ReplyDeleteOCTOBER is the worst wildfire month in Cali
ReplyDeletethis is wrong. LOOK AT THE STATISTICS. August is the worst month for wildfire in CA
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