October 14, 2026

A Meteorological Cliff is Ahead

We are about to descend a meteorological cliff, with little hope of return.

A transition to far cooler and wetter conditions, with no chance of reversal.

Even worse... this transition is perfectly normal for this time of the year.


Want proof?   Below are the latest temperature forecasts for several locations around our region.

In Seattle, temperatures will rise into the low 70s on Thursday and Friday before crashing down into the upper 50s next week.   And staying there.

On the coast at Hoquiaum?  Same thing.

At Snoqualmie Pass in the Cascades?    The big cooling takes them down into the 40s.



I find the October western transition in the Northwest fascinating-- and scary rapid.

Consider the climatological temperatures at Seattle (SeaTac) over the year (see below).  Red indicates the record highs, and brown shows the average temperature range (highs and lows).

Record temperatures reach into the 90s during the first half of the month, but after October 18 such warm temperatures simply don't occur.


This amazing transition around mid-October is made clearer by an expansion of the above figure for October.

Why such a rapid decline in temperatures in October?

Solar radiation reaching the surface declines rapidly during the month, and increasing weather system activity moves into the region as the jet stream strengthens and moves southward (see average color radiation below).




So enjoy the warmth of the next two days.  This may well be the last 70F+ highs you experience for many months.

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A Meteorological Cliff is Ahead

We are about to descend a meteorological cliff, with little hope of return. A transition to far cooler and wetter conditions, with no chance...