We went through a meteorological time machine this year. You experienced the meteorology of 25-50 years into the future.
For example, we have lived through a summer with the snowpack expected in 2050.
The second-lowest snowpack over the past decades.
Let me prove this to you.
Below is a plot of Pacific Northwest snowpack on April 1 (after the winter accumulation season) since 1984.
Wow, we had the second-lowest snowpack in over 40 years. Roughly 50% of normal.
When would we expect such a reduction in snow based on global warming?
Let us assume the RCP 4.5 global warming scenario, which is typically used by the research community these days.
Under this scenario, here are the April 1 snowpack predictions for the Puget Sound region. Snowpack doesn't decline to as much as this year until the end of the century!
Same thing for the entire Pacific Northwest:
So this year provides a taste of the snowpack in roughly 75 years into the future, assuming nothing major is done about greenhouse gas emissions.
What about temperatures? As shown below, it was much warmer than normal tduring the past year, roughly 2-4 F above normal in much of the area!
Again, comparing to a regional climate simulation, this is like being transported in time to around 2050.
This meteorological time travel is exhausting!
Announcement
I have a few thoughts about this:
ReplyDelete-You say that this last year will be the typical year in 2050 and we will be fine because there was still enough water. I assume by typical you mean it will be the "average" year. Doesn't that mean our low years will be extremely limited snow pack?
-I think that measuring how we did this year based solely on the crop yield does a disservice to the complexity of the water system, farming and how they function. There were emergency measures put in place this year that won't be possible for what is just an average year in 2050. There are also many areas that rely on pumping from what is a rapidly decreasing water table. Will that be available as a resource to draw from in 25 years?
Also, just because crop yields were normal doesn't mean that the farms were financially stable.
-It is convenient for us to only look 20-30 years in the future and say, "look it will be fine", when things will only continue to get more challenging for our area and the world in the decades that follow.
I worry about the world we are leaving my children's children.
Thanks for continuing to discuss and bring attention to PNW weather and climate. The dialogue is important.
It is true that some farmers use well water to get through this year. They/we are not going to stand still. I assume there will be more reservoir activity in 20-30 years......something that is being discussed today. Farmers will use more efficient irrigation systems (many waste water today). Perhaps we will scrap the silly senior water rights system, which results in some farmers wasting water.
DeleteWas going to make a similar comment -- the situation today, of a single atypical year, is pretty different than if this atypical year is the norm and we have atypical years *of top of* that new norm.
DeleteThe question is whether the variability around the mean will be the same later in the century....that many not be true.
DeleteHave our farmers really had enough water this year? Multiple smaller farmers at our local markets told me that they went for weeks without water which was a real challenge for them this year.
ReplyDeleteIt is true, it has been a challenge for those in areas where water was tight (e.g., Yakima Valley). But most learned how to function on less water and thus production held.
DeleteMy concern is less about an average year in 2050, but a drier/hotter than average year.
ReplyDeleteMy concern is the democrats will not understand this data and start taxing us more
ReplyDelete