Weather-X

There has been a lot of press coverage of late about the successful commercial space venture Space-X.   This private sector effort was able to build a launch vehicle (Falcon-9) and a spacecraft (Dragon) that not only worked flawlessly, but made a delivery to the international space station.  With NASA out of the manned space business for a while with the end of the Space Shuttle program, this feisty young company has taken on a role previously held only by a U.S. government agency, and they did it far faster and cheaper than a Federal entity could ever do.   To its credit, NASA has been supportive of Space-X's activities.

Falcon-9

Dragon

So now let's consider weather prediction.  A portion of U.S. numerical weather prediction has been done outside of the National Weather Service/NOAA and the U.S Navy (Fleet Numerical):  in the private sector and academic institutions (like the UW!).  However, the core global prediction infrastructure for the U.S. has really been a NWS function and most of the non-governmental efforts are dependent on NWS global grids, data assimilation, and other products.

Unfortunately, the current situation is not good.  The National Weather Service prediction efforts are crippled by inadequate computer infrastructure, lack of funds for research and development, an awkward and ineffective research lab structure out of control of NWS leaders, and government personnel rules that don't allow the NWS to replace ineffective research and development staff.  Lately there has been talk of furloughs for NWS personnel and a number of the NWS leadership are leaving.  The NWS has fallen seriously behind its competitors (e.g., the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, UKMET office, Canadian Meteorological Center) even though the U.S. has a huge advantage in intellectual capital (U.S. universities and the National Center for Atmospheric Research are world leaders in field, as are several U.S. government research labs--e.g, NRL Monterey).

So we have a U.S. government entity that has lost leadership in a key technological field of huge importance for the nation.  It no longer has the resources to be state-of-the-art and is hemmed in by ponderous governmental regulations.   Sounds quite a bit like NASA's situation, doesn't it?   And might the solution be the same?    Could a private company develop the capability for state of the art global prediction, high resolution regional prediction, and the ability to move into the probabilistic prediction we know represents the future?  Is it time for Weather-X?

The clear answer ... you bet.

Let me be honest, I am really surprised that a private sector firm hasn't taken on this challenge already, considering the obvious potential to create a forecast entity that could produce a product that would be in considerable demand.  For example, U.S. companies are spending millions of dollars to get the European Center (ECMWF) forecast model output---and it is possible to do far better than the ECMWF. 

To create this new firm one would need large computer resources (.5 to 1 petaflops would be a good place to start).   That would cost 10-15 million dollars to buy from scratch, but many companies (e.g., Microsoft, Google, Boeing, Amazon, IBM, major defense contractors, and more) have it already.

The new firm would need computer models, but those are already freely available, and research folks like myself could easily be bribed to help with some research grants (trust me on this!).  In fact, the research community would be lining up at the door to help if some $ was available.

The most difficult aspect is the data assimilation part... securing all the satellite and observational assets needed to initialize the forecasts---but many of those are in the public domain and I suspect that some deals could be made with NASA, NOAA, and the European Space Agency.  And there are some potentially very useful data sets that the NWS can't afford today that would be a substantial value (e.g., weather data from commuter planes).

Yes, it would probably take 5-25 million dollars to get started on this, but consider that the folks at Space-X invested 100 million dollars for a venture that was far more speculative.   Local investors are willing to spend as much or more ON A BASKETBALL TEAM. 

There is no doubt this idea would work. The best weather forecasts in the world would be a valuable commodity for many industries that would be ready to pay (e.g., renewable energy, agriculture, power generation and distribution, shipping...the list is endless).   Want to make your search engine attractive?   Have the best forecasts available on it!

Some of you might argue that my colleagues in the NWS might not be pleased about such an upstart.  But if NASA can happily agree to work with a private sector firm to take on some of its work, why should the NWS be any different?  I suspect the private sector could fulfill this function more effectively and at less cost.  And the benefit to the nation of vastly improved weather prediction guidance could be enormous.

As noted above, there are several companies that already have the computer and IT infrastructure in place to take this on (such as Microsoft, Google, Apple, and Amazon).  Several of them are found here in the Northwest.  All that is missing is the vision to see the opportunity and seize it.

Ocean Full of Clouds

Sometimes during springtime one looks at the visible satellite imagery over the eastern Pacific and can't help but be impressed that nearly the entire ocean is covered by low clouds.  This morning provides a prime example:

 Pretty amazing.   You have to feel sorry for those poor mariners crossing the ocean with day and day of low clouds (mainly stratocumulus).  Even central and southern California coastal residents are in the murk and you can see the low clouds spreading to the crest of the Oregon and Washington Cascades.  Folks, this is what June gloom looks like from space.

You see the checkerboard pattern over the ocean?  Those are ship tracks....the result of the effluent from fossil fuel burning ships.  The particles from combustion result in more condensation nuclei and more water droplets.  More droplets results in more of the sun's rays being reflected back to space.  Here is a close-up view. You can see why the U.S. Navy likes nuclear ships...no ship tracks!

To illustrate the murk at ground level, here are the latest webcams at Cannon Beach Oregon:

and at Del Mar near San Diego.

Kind of makes a Northwestener feel better...we have have company.

The ironic thing about this extensive shield of low clouds is that it is the result of HIGH PRESSURE.
Don't believe me?   Well, here is the proof...the 6-h forecast for sea level pressure over the eastern Pacific.  A huge high pressure area dominating the eastern Pacific, while low pressure is found over the southwest U.S..  Between the two there is a large difference in pressure near the Oregon/CA border...which produces very strong winds there (described in a previous blog).

High pressure produces sinking air and sinking causes warming. The sinking decreases as the air approaches the surface.  So with strong warming aloft and cool water near the surface we end up with an inversion (warming with height) in the lower atmosphere.   So we have a veneer of cool, moist air (with lots of low clouds) near the surface and dry warm air aloft.  Here is the latest sounding from Quillayute on the Washington coast (red is temperature, blue is dewpoint)... this structure is really obvious.

 

The vertical axis is pressure.  850 hPa is roughly 5000 ft.  Where the temperature and dewpoint are on top of each other we have a saturated (cloud-full) environment.  Here is a similar figure for San Diego (no color coding of lines).  Same structure.

So the secret of getting away from the low clouds is either to go above roughly 3-5 thousand feet (good if you own a helicopter or can hike up a local peak) or cross the Cascades.  Sorry.

Troubles at the National Weather Service

The last few weeks have brought hard times to the National Weather Service. 

A number of media outlets have reported on apparent spending irregularities in which approximately 30 million dollars was taken from certain development budgets to support NWS offices throughout the U.S., a procedure requiring congressional approval that was not secured.

When this story become public (there were dozens of articles in newspapers around the country, examples:  NY Times, WA Post), NWS head Jack Hayes decided it was time to retire (more on Jack Hayes, later).

The National Weather Service has a shortfall of roughly 26 million dollars THIS fiscal year and unless Congress comes up with more funding the Weather Service is going to furlough each of their 4800 employees for 13 days (story here). We are talking about thunderstorm, wildfire, and hurricane season. 

Meanwhile, an inspector general report on May 18 alleged the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration paid $43.8 million in award fees or contract extensions without proper justification, mainly for contracts dealing with weather satellites.

And if that is not bad enough, a number of the high level leadership of the Weather Service will be retiring or leaving for greener pastures.   AND the Secretary of Commerce, whose department they are a part of, has been involved in a headline-grabbing series of auto accidents in California.

These folks are in a world of hurt.

 I would like to make a few comments on the above.   I have known Jack Hayes for a number of years--first as head of the AF Weather Agency, head of the NWS Office of Science and Technology, and for the last five years the leader of the National Weather Service.   He is a highly committed and honorable individual.  A few years ago, when there was a great deal of uncertainty about the coastal radar, he called me...he gave

Dr. Jack Hayes

 his word the radar would go in and quickly.  No more opposition or delays, as had gone on under his predecessors.   He kept his word.   Remember my blog a few months ago about state of the numerical weather prediction in the U.S.?   Guess, who called a few days later to talk it over and to assure me of his commitment to change things....Jack Hayes.    I could give you a dozen more examples like this.  He was concerned, engaged and a straight shooter--as well as a nice guy.

The National Weather Service has been underfunded for years.  According to the general counsel of the NWS employees organization, NOAA higher-ups knew about the structural deficit for a long time as well as the standard practice of covering employee salary increases from other pots of money.

The NWS has never had enough funds for state-of-the-art computers or to support outside research that could advance weather prediction.  Desperate for funds, they recently proposed removing IT support from its offices by providing remote support (you can imagine how well that would work!).  It appears that Jack Hayes was doing what he could to keep the wheels on the bus of a critical agency.  And there is no suggestion of funds disappearing or being used for personal needs.

NOAA leadership seems far more interested in climate and ocean issues than weather prediction, and this had been true for a while (yes, even during the Bush administration).  As an example, there was a push to form a National Climate Service--a parallel organization to the NWS.  Congress pulled the plug on this late last year.

My hope is that now that the underfunding of the NWS is out in the open, congressional leadership will take steps to ensure that this agency, with critical responsibilities for life and property, is funded at an appropriate level.  They would be well advised to taking a hard look at whether NOAA belongs in Commerce, and if the current structure of weather related research and operations spread over the NWS and NOAA makes sense.

Seasonal Precipitation Surprises

You ask any resident of Washington, Oregon, or California:   when is the wettest time of the year?   Without hesitation they will answer:  during the winter.  The Goretex season.

But ask a resident of Montana, particularly the eastern two-thirds of the state, and they would give you a different answer:  May and June!

Or talk to someone from southern Arizona or New Mexico and they will give you an even different answer:  July and August.

Why are there such differences?

First, lets explore the seasonal variation of precipitation a bit.

Here is a fascinating image that give the percentage of the annual rainfall falling from October through March...essentially winter.

Much of the West Coast gets 80% or more of their annual precipitation during this winter period, with the Bay area getting more than 90%.  Winter wet and thus summer dry.  This is what we term a Mediterranean climate.  Residents of the wet NW rarely think they have much in common with the Mediterranean climes, but it is true.  Rick Steves needs to know about this--why send so many folks to Italy and southern France when we have the same climate right here at home!

But look inland: the percentage of annual precipitation during winter drops continuously, and by the time you get to the eastern side of the Rockies much of that region only gets 20-30% of their precipitation during winter.  Winter is the dry time of the year there!
These folks in live in a weird climate!

Now here is the percentage of annual precipitation during Spring (April through June).
Mamma Mia!  Eastern Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas get roughly HALF of their precipitation during these three months...this is their wet season.  On the other hand, this is a time of EXTREME aridity in southern Arizona and far southwest CA.   A good time to enjoy some warmth in Tucson with little worry about a cloudburst.

And finally there is midsummer (July and August).   The West Coast gets LESS THAN TEN PERCENT of its annual precipitation then, while southern Arizona and much of New Mexico get roughly half of their annual precipitation.   This is the time of the Southwest Monsoon, when moisture streams up the Gulf of California into the Desert Southwest.  Lots of lightning and thunderstorms.

So how do we explain these differences in annual precipitation?

During the winter the jet stream..the current of westerly (from the west) winds in the midlatitudes, is strong, bringing wet Pacific systems into the West Coast.  But folks to the west of the Rockies are shielded by the mountains...they are on the downslope, rainshadow side of the barrier.

During the spring the jet stream weakens and fewer and weaker storms approach the West Coast.  We start to dry out (yes, there are still lots of clouds and sprinkles).  But the weaker jet stream is associated with increases undulations in the flow, including more cut-off lows and troughs the bring southerly flow, less rainshadowing, and more rain to Montana and vicinity.  Here is an example of such flow (this shows the flow at 500hPa, roughly 18,000 ft, the winds are parallel to the lines).

In midsummer, the jet stream and weather disturbances from off the Pacific are history, but monsoon moisture coming out of Mexico produces thunderstorms and convective showers in Arizona, New Mexico, and parts of Colorado.

Now over the eastern U.S. the situation is even stranger...they get nearly the same amount of precipitation EVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR.  Cyclones and fronts during winter, thunderstorms during the summer.

Think about it: We get our rain over during the winter, when days are short.  Our summers are dry and mild, when days are long.  We are blessed.

Depressing But True

 The May climatological numbers are in and the contiguous U.S. has had its second warmest may on record.  But guess what region did not share in the balmy conditions?

You guessed it...the Pacific Northwest.

Here is the difference of May temperatures from normal (red above normal and blue below normal).  The cold almost perfectly follows the state boundaries of our region.  Only the Cascade western foothills were above normal--perhaps due to downslope warming.

What about January through May?  A similar picture with Oregon, Washington and northwest CA cooler than normal.   You will notice that warmest temperatures were shifted back to the Great Plains for Jan-May.

Precipitation?  For May, the Northwest was near normal, but for Jan-May above normal.

June so far has been cooler and wetter than normal, while just to our southwest very warm and dry conditions are occurring.

That is why we are shivering and our snowpack is way above normal while southern Utah has already started their wildfire season (see image below).

Utah Wildfire

The forecast?   The next week looks substantially drier, with only a few light showers, and temperatures should be near normal or a bit on the cool side....but clearly not as bad as the last week.  The best day of the weekend will be Sunday.   For more weekend forecast information, check my segment on KPLU (www.kplu.org), which should be online after 10 AM....or listen to my 9 AM discussion with Keith Seinfeld over the radio or online live.