Friday, February 8, 2019

A Snow Event in Two Acts

Today's snow event will be in two acts, with the first one already begun.  Very light snow is now falling over Northwest Washington (locations such as Bellingham and Orcas Island)--something that is confirmed by the 8:30 AM weather radar (see below)


These snow showers are associated with an approaching upper level trough of lower pressure that is providing upward motion that is leading to a band of clouds and weak snow showers (the satellite picture at the same time is shown below).


But this is not the main act.  That will occur as the upper trough spawns a tight low pressure center in the lower atmosphere, as illustrated in the surface pressure forecast for 7 PM tonight.  An absolutely classical pressure pattern for a snow event over Puget Sound.   The low pressure draws in cold air form the north (note the large north-south pressure change) over Puget Sound and pushes moist air from off the Pacific above the low-level cool flow.


Close in to a major weather event, I like to look at the NOAA/NWS High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model--in which a new high resolution forecast is made each hour.  Below shows the accumulating snow in time.

There is  some light snow reaching Seattle around 11 AM....but this is stage 1 stuff.


The snow extends south by 4 PM at which time the amounts are just starting to increase.  Stage 2 is beginning as the low center develops along our coast.


By 10 PM tonight, there is a lot of snow as stage 2 revs up ...4-6 inches around Seattle and more to the east. There is going to be a region of heaviest snow where the moist flow off the Pacific converges with the cold flow coming out of the north.


And by 1 AM, there is a bit more around Puget Sound, but much more over northwest Oregon.


The essential point in all this, is that things should not be too bad before roughly 2-3 PM, but by rush hour, the situation should be declining rapidly.  The UW is closing around 12:30 PM, which is wise, since it allows folks to be home by mid-afternoon. 

Later today I will talk about the next big snow threats... late Sunday/Monday for SW Washington and Oregon and Tuesday for Washington.  Today is just a "warm up" as cold air remains in place for most of the week.   And no, I won't give a name to the upcoming snow events (but the picture below is a hint)




217 comments:

1 – 200 of 217   Newer›   Newest»
Jody said...

yep, it just started snowing in Aberdeen.

Unknown said...

Can you offer a timeline for Southern Vancouver Island?

John said...

Last night's UW MM5 1.3km WRF 48 hour snowfall forecast already has busted,and the main event hasn't even started.It did not see the warm from that snuck up from the California low.2 1/2" here already,and still snowing.The model only predicted about an inch.It will be interesting to see what this mornings run predicts!

Bruce Kay said...

lake effect on Vancouver Island right now. 15 cm to Vancouver 2 cm! Zero at Whistler. Looks like Victoria might get hammered with that low

Batty said...
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Batty said...

Snowzilla it is.

Kevin said...

Thanks for all your great work Cliff!

Looks like Whatcom will miss out on this 'fun' this time and on Sunday. About 1 inch fell last night but we may might not see much more, looking at the models.

Do you think the North Interior will get anything with the Tuesday system or is that also aimed south of us?

Brian said...

Cliff, the ensemble has cut the snow estimates in half (the 00 UTC run last night compared to 24 hours earlier, or even 12 hours earlier). It's also changed the winds and temperatures over the next 48 hours significantly. That differs from your analysis here, and I note you're using the HRRR heavily. What am I missing?

Unknown said...

Snowzilla is fine, but I prefer Frostzilla.

Unknown said...

Already got a new dusting to 1/4" out in rural Monroe. We seem to be in the prime Convergence Zone, so I'm going to pretty much assume that we're going to get around 50% more snow than everyone else. :P

Unknown said...

Light flurries in Port Townsend

Mark Huntley said...

How well does SEATAC run in snow conditions like these! I fly back home Saturday evening and am getting very concerned I won’t be able to make it.

RLL said...

Anyone have a date for the last such a severe storm hitting Seattle in mid-February. I can't remember any. We have had cold, we have had snow but both??

Regan said...

I’m sort of a foul weather follower of your blog, but I gotta say, it’s so nice to have! Thanks for all your hard work on this, Cliff. I know you’d probably got a lot on your mind, too, with this weather and taking the time out to inform us all is such a kind thing to do. Be well and thanks again for all that you do.

Unknown said...

Enjoy your snowstorm Cliff. Looks exciting. Impressive reflectivities in the HRRR later this afternoon. ed

Unknown said...

Act One began in Port Hadlock about 9AM.

Eleanor Zimmermann said...

I'm worried about the human factors / group game theory. Schools are being let out 2 hours early. Many people are planning to leave work.
I'm wondering if I should leave extra-early in anticipation of others leaving early. Nightmare scenario is everyone leaving early, plus the snowfall early. If the 2" per hour begins at say, 11am, we're screwed.

corina said...

This map is only showing an inch total for us (southern vancouver island), and we already have 2 inches on the ground. No sign of it letting up anytime soon.

Kathryn said...

Been snowing in Coupeville, WA (Whidbey Island) since 7:30 AM.

Scott K. said...

The EURO model is nailing today's experience, at least from what I can tell on windy.com

I'm in Lea Hill (Auburn) and we had light snow this morning. Unlike regular light snow events in the area, this light snow is actually sticking to the roads already (lea hill and covington area), making it slick in spots that don't look slick.

Should be a fun drive home from Bellevue in a few hours. :)

Kathryn said...

Been snowing since 7:30 am in Coupeville (Whidbey Island).

-ge- said...

Seriously snowing in Sequim now. Saw a 3 car accident in Carlsborg. Temp is just at 33 degrees so quite slippery.

Scott K. said...

The radar (at about 11am) is showing snow pushing in south of Seattle (federal way/kent and south), meaning more snow south end before Seattle sees any. I don't think this was forecasted.

Gpacharlie said...
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Gpacharlie said...

Snowfessor Mass,
Looking forward to your post Snowpocalypse analysis next week. Was it a true Snowmageddon per the Euro model or did the USA πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ win this one. Did Snowzilla rise up out of the watery depths and wreak havoc or did Mothra winds come from the East to drive him back into the warm watery depths. Snowattelites want the post game review. ⛄️⛄️⛄️

Unknown said...

I have lived through a thousand of these alarmist warnings ... this will be a non-event :)

Unknown said...

11:30 AM... 2" of new snow here in lake Goodwin , stanwood area, so far this morning.

John Marshall said...

Already have a couple of inches and snowing heavily with large flakes (29 degrees) on top of Bell Hill near Sequim at 1130. Started at 1000 or so. I watched the radar as a huge snow cloud formed out of nowhere (it didn't come down across the Strait but formed right over us).

NOAA talks about frontogenesis occurring over us later today. That's pretty cool given we are usually on the protected downslope from such things. Upslopes are neat. Always wanted to have a snowy frontogenesis hovering over my backyard.

We and our neighbors are all prepared to enjoy this rare winter event.

shufixer said...

Over an inch in Sequim and dumping hard, 2 inches in Port Angeles. Who ever the idiot that said this will be a non event needs to get a clue

Gpacharlie said...

February 1989

mark said...

This may end up being an inconsequential detail, but the models and the narrative thus far don't seem to be holding up very well with regards to onset time and location. Who predicted that Seattle southward would get snow before any location between Shoreline and Marysville? It looks like this is going to fill in from south to north rather than the forecasted north to south. Indeed, the snow boundary north of Everett has only been retreating further northward over the past couple of hours.

Unknown said...

Washington weather hype machine is in full effect.

Gpacharlie said...

I think it was 1986. I left work early on Beacon Hill. I went to pick up my wife on Capital Hill. I couldn’t convince her coworkers to leave early. My wife finally relented and we left 90 minutes after I got there. It took us 2 hours to get off Capital Hill. Her coworkers had to stay the night at work.

Gpacharlie said...

Party Pooper !!

Sharon said...

Fascinating to read about your process, Cliff. Thanks for all the time you're investing in keeping the public informed.

Your Godzilla references always make me laugh! We used to go to Godzilla drive in movies as kids.

Sean C said...

Snowing on Bainbridge... Just starting to pick up.

Anonymesser said...

About 4" already on the ground in Port Angeles. It started earlier than expected and has not relented. The 1 foot forecast for the North Olympics looks pretty easily attainable.

Richard said...

Virtually everything in Port Angeles is closing. The snow is coming in much heavier and sooner than expected. No pics here but check out Port Angeles, WA on Facebook.

n3rdg1rl said...

Just started snowing on Phinney Ridge!

LewisLucanBooks said...

12:25 PM. Just started snowing in Chehalis. Lew

BATTLEFINCH said...

Snojira?

jim said...

5 inches around my house at 100 feet elevation about 6 Mike's east of Sequim, was. And it is still snowing sooooo hard

MBeebe said...

Queen Anne Hill: the snow has begun. It's big, heavy and wet.

Angela said...

Not snowing yet in north Kirkland, although we had a few light flurries around 8:30am. But, there seems to be quite a lot of melt going on - crusty chunks shaking off the tree branches and even icicles falling from the edges of my gutters.

Unknown said...

Southwest Seattle is snowing strong since about 12:15pm!

Cedarspring said...

First snowflakes in Auburn at elevation of 450ft at 12:40pm.

Brian Kern said...

Snowmageddon has begun here in Georgetown.

Sulla said...

Finally started snowing in Lynnwood. Usually we're not the last to get it, but it's here.

Unknown said...

In Port Angeles, we had a melt for the last hour or so that will make things really fun when things refreeze in a few hours. Highway 101 in and out of town is already closed due to it being a parking lot.

Richard said...

North Seattle is snowing cats and dogs, big wet flakes but it's a bit warm. 36 degrees in Greenwood according to my professional Davis thermometer. Still incredible to see so much snow in the air. Just beginning to stick to the roadways, barely.

Gimp said...

Snowing in Woodinville. The town is a total loss.

Ebenezer said...

Coming down strong on Queen Anne Hill - sticking on sidewalks and roads. Fun to see - glad I don't have to drive in it.

I wish the Seattle School District had opted for two-hour early dismissal instead of 75 minute early dismissal. It could be a real mess for students getting home this afternoon.

South Sound Guy said...

Snow began here on Key Peninsula (extreme NW Pierce Co) at noon. Now at 1pm 1.5 inches of new snow.

Unknown said...

Snowing steadily in Port Townsend- about an inch of new since 10:30.

Stephen Fry said...

Okay, I surrender. Moderate snowfall, 34 deg F, and sticking to roads at 1 pm in Edmonds! My mom says same's happening near Seatac. The wx service forecast appears to be on target! I believed them enough, and Cliff, to shop for food last night and around noon today

Tim Sica said...

Beginning to see snow in Covington area

Dave Myron said...

Dumping at 1600' on South Tiger Mountain at 12:45.

Dave Myron said...
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Unknown said...

North of Poulsbo, started at Noon, thickening now, 1/4 inch maybe...grilled cheese/tomato soup with a window seat. Love snow!

Leonson said...

Snowing and sticking in Shoreline

Unknown said...

Light but dense snow falling in Monroe/Woods Creek area. Temp is 34 degrees, snow isn't quite sticking yet, but it's just a matter of time before it does.

Unknown said...

South Tacoma: Just started about 12:55pm. It's starting to stick on the side roads. Fingers crossed for a foot! XD

Bebop said...

Started snowing here in Ballard (I'm near Fred Meyer's) at 12:35 p.m., hard and fast. It's 1:16 PM now and the snow is already sticking to the roads.

I'm glad I was allowed to work remotely - I didn't want to take the 44 to UW today, and risk a delayed bus getting back to Ballard. My team was looking at your forecasts, Professor, none of us chose to commute today.

Michael Wenberg said...

Now snowing heavily in Kingston....34 degrees at sea level.

Gpacharlie said...

North Bend - Snoqualmie now snowing lightly at 1:20 pm.

Gpacharlie said...

Snowmapalooza ?

John said...

Up to almost 4" here in Spokane,soon will exceed the high limit of original NWS forecast.(Forgot to mention my location on earlier comment)

Unknown said...

Nothing in San Luis Obispo yet.

Heidi said...

Really coming down heavy and sticking in Renton Highlands! Beautiful. Glad kids got out early. School districts timed it perfectly.

George D. said...

On my way home to shoreline from whidbey Island right now.

Unknown said...

Snow has arrived in Tacoma. Already have a light layer and it keeps coming.

Kenneth Hulick said...

At 1:30 p.m. measured 8 inches in Sequim at 375 feet elevation.

Unknown said...

falling pretty steadily inside the city right now. It's not sticking the the road yet, but the back ups started at about 12:30.

Kevin Lynch said...

Snowing heavily on South Whidbey between Langley and Bayview. Convergence zone payout. We're likely to get more than 3 to 5 inches, i'm thinking because of the colliding effects.

Sandra Leigh said...

It started ~12:45 here in Kirkland and went from zero to sixty in a minute or so. If it's starting out this heavy, I wonder if that means our total amount for the 24hr period will be significantly more than predicted.

Unknown said...

Decent snowfall rate but almost no accumulation on the streets thus far on South Beacon Hill. Temp is 34.2 and holding steady.

AuntieWinkie said...

Started snowing and sticking around 1230 in NE Seattle - the Maple Leaf Alps. Still coming down and sticking at 1353. Dr. Mass, thank you for your posts and wonderful explanations. Very much appreciated!

Colleen said...

Absolutely no interesting weather in north Whatcom County; just our usual strong northeast wind out of the Fraser Valley picking up. It creates whiteout conditions when paired with snow, so probably for the best that we're high & dry. Still. Bummer to have events south of us canceled while we miss out on the "excitement".

Richard Carlson said...

7.5 inches in Agnew between Port Angeles/Sequim at 2 PM on the 8th

Rabbits' Guy said...

About 2 pm here in Bow. Heavier snow earlier, now very light - maybe an inch or so, so far. Interestingly, the weather-reporting rock is reporting snow. We are on a hill looking over all the berry farms and fields - a beautiful sight - but we will be stuck here until some good soul with a tractor comes and moves away the pretty! Fun reading the experiences and compares to forecasts.

S ryan said...

Snowing in Olympia since noonish. Started sticking around 2pm and it’s piling up fast.

500 Mics said...

Started snowing in W Olympia around 12:15 with gusto...have almost 2" of new snow in two hours, but it has slowed down. Roads have about 1" already sticking. Long term forecast through Tuesday on weather.com has us anywhere from 10-20" for us here....holy moly

Unknown said...

Now snowing very steadily in Monroe/Woods Creek. At one point, visibility was less than 1/8 mile (the distance between my house and our inner driveway gate). My wife commented that she's never seen snow this heavy except in the mountains. As of now, it looks like we've got about an inch of accumulation over just the last 30-45 minutes.

ChrisChristensen87 said...

18z GFS is nuts for next week.

Emma said...

In an earlier post Cliff mentioned it might be comparable to “winter of 1996” when all of the passes, the Columbia Gorge, AND Sea-Tac were all closed for at least a couple of days. Western WA was pretty much entirely cut off for a while!

Unknown said...

steady snow in Indianola

Jim Larsen said...

Snowing for about 1 hour and NO accumulation on the pavement in Snohomish. Too warm out. I will be surprised if we get a dusting on the road at this rate. Looks to be a bit of a dud but we'll see.

Unknown said...

Steady snow in beautiful Indianola

Anne Murray said...

Nobody seems to be paying attention to the Olympic Peninsula. It started snowing and accumulating in Port Angeles at 7:00 a.m. We've had at least 6" since then at my 300' elevation home. Hard to tell since it is on top of the first snow. Shoveling is heavy work. Driving is treacherous.

Roy Scott said...

For all of you thinking this is turning out to be a big ol' nothing, yikes. It's SIGNIFICANTLY snowing around the Seattle area and the areas closer to the city will just take a bit longer to cool down to the point where this will begin having large accumulation. Don't be deceived: this one is really going to dump on everyone

Alan Schuh said...

From NOAA's site:
"Snow. High near 33. Wind chill values between 23 and 28. Calm wind." How is there a "wind" chill if there is no wind?

Alan Schuh said...

From NOAA's site:

"Snow. High near 33. Wind chill values between 23 and 28. Calm wind."

How can there be wind chill if there is no wind? Has NOAA been infiltrated by local broadcast weatherheads?

Dan said...

Heavy fine snow in Black Diamond/Lake Sawyer for last 2 hours

Carter Mountain Chronicals said...

Looks like most of the snow is heading to the south of the Seattle area we have dodged a bullet here!

Bob carmody said...

Starting to remind me of late January 1969. 20 inches on the ground at Sea Tac. Storm after storm. Dry snow. A little colder UW closed for a week. Surely was fun!

Unknown said...

Wind is picking up here in Friday Harbor. For now the snow has stopped falling. 34 degrees, wind chill 23

Pizano said...

Snowing heavy in Cle Elum, started about 12:30

Isola said...
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Unknown said...

Snowing in the Skagit and has been since 1pm.

Ken W said...

Hmmmm....radar looks like this is quickly falling apart?

Eric Hare said...

Ken W, yeah, pretty clear the radar is falling apart... doesn't look like too much additional accumulation for Puget Sound. With that said, some areas did get hit pretty hard, and I'd always prefer forecaster's err on the side of caution, but yeah... this is certainly not the "major" snowstorm that was projected, and the timing of the action happening after 4pm primarily looks way off.

We'll see, but seems like another miss as far as the forecasting goes overall, though much less impactful of one to the community than Monday when the totals were drastically underforecasted.

Mark Allyn said...

4 PM in Bellingham (E. Victor Street near Cornwall Park) street is clear. A few flurries so far as of about 4 PM. Wind is starting to pick up from the north, but I was able to ride my bicycle today without frost-biting my cheeks and ear lobes off. Just went out to my back yard. Sky seems to be brightening up a little and not a single flake for the last five minutes. I can feel some drizzle drops if I stretch my arms out. It does not yet feel like freezing.

And nws.noaa.gov seems to be hard down. You have to go to: https://www.weather.gov/sew/

brad_tgl said...

Update: 12" of snow here in Port Angeles at 800'. Hasn't let up.

Unknown said...

Thanks for helping I631 not get passed Cliff! More CO2 = BETTER! You are da bomb, keep up the good work, we will remember you for ages :)

Tara Austin said...

This was just the beginning wave. We have a bit of down and then the big push begins.

Scott K. said...

Radar at 4:48 shows the moisture band falling apart quickly. Is it over already?

dardevle said...

That’s what I’m seeing.

Unknown said...

Zero accumulation down here at sea level in West Seattle.

Unknown said...

Radar looks a bit underwhelming for snow lovers in NE Seattle at present. I hope things change in the next few hours. We haven't had a decent snow rate since 1 today.

Unknown said...

Millions $$$ worth of computers, statisticians/scientists/modelers. "snowmageddon"

[in the flesh] said...

Got less than an inch here in Haller lake/north Seattle. So bummed. Stopped snowing. Looking like it's all over now.

Rebecca Timson said...

Interesting. We had a couple inches in Leschi-Madrona neighborhood by 2 pm, and it's 3 to 4 inches.

Christian Amott said...

yep has stopped snowing in NE Seattle ... nyever really stuck to roads ... yawn ... looking to be a non-event ...

Sulla said...

Looks like a lot of the energy has already passed us by. The precipitation field was never impressive for this system (at least not over the central Sound) and now it looks full of holes and to be actively dissipating. Are we missing something where the moisture will coil back up our way again?

NoSnowMaggedon said...

Yeah. This look like a dud. Except for Timbuktu’s 35”. PNW greater Seattle TACOMA a bust. Bummer!!

Unknown said...

Where is stage 2? Now, it is rush hours and hardly any snow at Redmond.

ryamkajr said...

Yep. Temp above freezing in Maple Leaf/Lake City Way. Roads slushy but not iced. Snow and ice melting on my driveway and walkway. Snowing has stopped. Radar showing a change in wind direction. This thing may be over for the next 24 hours.

Yes, it will freeze tonight, but barely.

ryamkajr said...

Would love an update from Cliff. This thing is falling apart at least in the Metro area. Would like to see what the next 24 hours are supposed to look like.

dardevle said...

I don’t know about the rest of the life-long Seattlelites...The true epic storms are usually a bit of a surprise to everyone.

[in the flesh] said...

Ok, I measured and it looks like we actually have just under 4cm of fresh snow. Crossing my fingers for more!

BAMCIS said...

For some areas, this is going to be an epic bust.

Jonathan Doe said...

Very little snow fell in Whatcom County today. It's now dry and windy. Most places had max temps in the mid-30s with low-30s currently. Looks to be a cold, windy weekend.

Kevin said...

Yeah. This is a big bust

Brandon&on&on said...

About an 1"-1.5" in Downtown Olympia between 1-3:30pm,then from 4:15 to now (5:35pm) steady heavy snowfall with an additional 1-1.5"

Matt said...

Yeah... I live at the second highest point in Seattle and we got a whole lotta nothing. But at least QFC and Safeway got a bunch of extra business.

South Sound Guy said...

Surprised to see that even now the Fraser outflow air temps in Lynden/Bellingham area are still relatively warm, 33/34 degrees.

Care to explain the unique conditions which resulted in the big dump at Sequim, 14" as reported by KIRO TV?

Nathan Novak said...

Nuking in Snoqualmie Ridge since 1p. Shoveled 4+ inches at 4p and there’s at least 2” on the driveway again and piling up quickly. If anything, I’d say the models above undersold this one based on observations vs the times noted. City plows have been doing a good job of staying ahead of things too.

Can’t wait to ski some freshies tomorrow!

Unknown said...

Cars are driving outside my house in NE Seattle at normal speed limits. This was supposed to be the peak of the storm. Safe to say it busted?

Unknown said...

My jerkoff employer finally gave in at 7AM this morning. Effing D-Bags.

Richard Carlson said...

10 inches snow as of 5:30 PM in Agnew in between Port Angeles & Sequim

Unknown said...

Bust.

Mr K. said...

Snowmageddon has become snoremageddon.

Gpacharlie said...

Yep we got a lot of good sledding in then.

Smed14 said...

We got nada in Bellingham. Zilch

Smed14 said...

We go nada in Bellingham. Zilch.

Jack said...

How did you get this so wrong with so much data?

The moisture has not materialized, the deep trough in your images has not materialized, and hence the cold air from the north hasn't either.

Other forecasts have downgraded this to under an inch, roads are bare and there is no snow in most places. The Langley, WA radar shows very little precipitation.

Just a total bust of a forecast.

Aspiring Grill Master said...

I think we have a Dud here.....

Unknown said...

Sure looks like a bust to me

Kristina said...

Okay Cliff you left us on a cliffhanger (sorry - I see what I did there). What is happening? Has the forecast changed? It came in exactly as expected, and I left work at 1pm, arriving hone in West Seattle at 2pm-ish (commute nearly double the time as usual, but felt safe despite wet snow). I measured two inches of new snow on my deck table, but then...it stopped. It has rained a little. And it all seems to be melting.

Please tell us more! Is this it for tonight? Is Monday's storm still coming? Will we still meet Snowzilla? Do tell!

Tim Nuse said...

I think the winner is... anyone and everyone that called this a dud. At least for Alki. Nothing but wet roads and light rain. And warmer than expected. Radar does indeed look like the system fell apart.

FancyPants said...

Well, snowmageddon/snowzilla was fun while it last, but it appears to be dying now.

John Murphy said...

Thanks for instilling fear in the masses.
Left Seattle at 4pm and enjoyed empty roads all the way home on I5 to West Seattle!
Let's see how tonight goes!

Mark MacIntyre said...

What the.....? It’s OVER!!

underwhelmed snow enthusiast said...

well that was a big ol nothing burger... 1.6" in Seattle.. pfft. the 2nd "act" better bring 5-6" of snow Cliff

Matt said...

Uh... Cliff?

Larry said...

Kind of a bust in Lake Forest Park. We only got about 1 inch so far. My brother in the U District reports about half an inch.

Unknown said...

Another forecast bust.....nice

Unknown said...

Cliff: Thank you for keeping us up to date on this stuff! Glad I went out for a nice motorcycle ride around Snoqualmie Valley last Saturday!

Island Time said...

We've a whopping trace to a quarter inch here on Bainbridge by the water. Sleeting as of 1730 and a mild 34 degrees. Snowmageddon must have been "Flake News"!

Unknown said...

We got an abrupt start to snow out NE of Woodinville, a lot of very fine flakes most of the afternoon, and then when snowpocalypse was supposed to start.... nothing. And Weather Underground rather suddenly changed the prediction from 4-6" to <1".

That was anticlimactic.

Collin Brock said...

Patiently waiting on next blog post. Still coming this evening?

Unknown said...

more like snowgecko...

Tim said...

Hmmm... warmer than what all of the models predicted. What happened that the models did not account for?

Nick Loyd said...

Whoops, looks like you missed this forecast

Richard Carlson said...

11 inches at Agnew Wa - between Port Angeles & Sequim at 9:30 Pm

Alex said...

Looks underwhelming so far. Looked out at the ground and barely anything has stuck, mostly melted. Maybe the snowmageddon is averted?

500 Mics said...

11pm in west Oly and we are up to 6-7" of new snow and still coming down steadily. If this keeps up as forecast until 7am, we could easily top 10" just in this storm. What will Sun/Mon bring??? Models may have underestimated moisture column available to this low

RustyRoof said...

What do the latest models say, Cliff? This is the biggest CLIFF hanger to date. ;)

Unknown said...

Tell that to the people stuck in traffic or dealing with accidents.

renie said...

Snowing pretty heavily in the QA/Interbay area. Roads are white, everything is white.

Unknown said...

Thank you, Cliff. Once again, you are right . 😊 It's beautiful and I'm so glad we went to the store the other day I'm shaking my head at Mr. non-hype. I guess you just have to be here for one of these storms.

Stone said...

Just like was forecasted, the snow really picked up about 9-10 PM here in Woodinville. Went from an inch or two to 5.5” in a couple hours. on top of the 9” we already had from Sun/Mon. It continually amazes me how just a few hundred feet (400 feet in my case) can make such a significant impact on snow totals.

Unknown said...

3am 6 inches in Bremerton and snowing heavily. Cliff, you were spot on! Thanks for the good work.

Unknown said...

Holy Godzilla Batman!

Old Navy said...

At least 5 inches in Port Ludlow, and moderate snow falling.

Unknown said...

I assume you’re shoveling your words now, eh? That second punch predicted to pick up around 10 pm did exactly that. Good job.

brad_tgl said...

Closing in on 20” here in Port Angles at 800’. Luckily, we still have power. Still snowing...

Foo said...

Everybody who joined the snort-fest about this being a non-event, the system falling apart, why is it so warm, why is it not snowing as hard, blah blah, wah wah, this is how we're going to do it.

Line up, wait your turn (there are a lot of you), apologize to Cliff, lkand then go stand in the corner for a while.

Sheesh. I have never seen people get that caught up in treating a radar image like some kind of crystal ball. Hooting that the next ice age was imminent one moment, then hooting that the forecasters were a bunch of hype-mongers the next.

Seriously. Go back and read that parade of comments from yesterday evening. It'll give you whiplash if you're not careful. It was funny at first, then it just got annoying.

Heidi said...

Its obvious that everyone did not experience the snowmageddon. That is a let down. The storm was very selective it seems! I'm in the Renton Highlands and we got dumped on big time. I haven't seen this big of a snowfall here in many years. Love it.

Joseph Ratliff said...

Olympia 98513 has about 4-5 inches, and wind is blowing a bit.

Perhaps more sad, though...

31,700 people are without power (PSE). That's how fragile our power grid is, we can't even sustain snow storms without major power loss.

RLL said...

Snow came later than we expected here living on Sinclair Inlet. Nothing but a dusting afternoon and at 9:30pm. Friends at 200 ft elevation got a lot. BUT, woke up at 5:30am and there is about 4 inches. I suspect those east-west bands may be connected with no snow until after 10pm.

Danno said...
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Danno said...

Certainly happened on marrowstone. I'm looking out the window at 8+ inches? Starting to worry about the weight of snow... Thanks for the blog!

Greg said...

We got annihilated in Issaquah. It will be interesting to see the snowfall totals around the region, and how it has varied. Almost everything is shut down.

Unknown said...

Will we get alot of snow in yakima wa

Nightflyer76 said...

Ahh yes the self-entitled I know everything crowd in seattle complaining you missed the forecast right before the event was going to begin. So entertaining Cliff. Keep up the good work. 6-8inches of snow in Gig Harbor area.

Stickerbush said...

8-10” on Vashon, lost power just before midnight, apparently the entire island is out.

Nightflyer76 said...

Plenty of snow down here in Gig Harbor as predicted with more to come as predicted. Not only by Cliff, but other reputable meteorological services.

So satisfying to look back thru the comments and see that 99% of your readers do not posses basic critical thinking skills.

Well done public education system, truly well done.

Ffej said...

Congratulations to all the forecasters -- you folks really nailed it! About 4.5" in Wallingford.

Unknown said...

Another 6" here in Lake Goodwin. Well over a foot on the ground. Love all the bust comments, hope you all wake up eating crow. Cliff keep the good work up.

Bernard and Eva said...

I just read Settle had 7th largest snow day in history of tracking (since 1894), so I think that qualifies Cliff as being "right"!

Unknown said...

North of POULSBO, 6am: 9 inches on top of previous 6 (which compressed to about 4), breeze picking up. 28 degrees. Coffee’s on!

me on 28th Ave SW said...

Your forecast was spot on for us in West Seattle! There was an intermission until late Friday evening and then it snowed like crazy for about three hours. All said, we have 8 inches of new snow. I await your next forecast with bated breath. Thank you for all the work you put into your blog. I’ve lived in Seattle my whole life and spent my childhood mourning snows that didn’t come to pass. It’s hard to forecast here!

Meredith said...

Curious what all the people calling this a dud or a bust have outside their window this morning. I’ve got 6.5 new inches in Rainier Beach.

Not Gonna Blog said...

Sounds like Magnolia to me.

Mike P. said...

All you Seattle folks who think the world revolves around you are proving your foolishness. Other parts of Puget Sound are hammered this morning. Oly has up to 10" in places and thousands without power...so yeah, it is a major snow event even if your little bubble went unaffected. Across Western WA this morning folks are not interested in armchair meteorologists slamming the forecast. It was off here too, but on the low side. Instead of the 2-5" forecast, we have easily doubled that and even quadrupled the low end. I watched a transformer light up the sky blue at about 6am out my window, which is always cool to see. So yeah, save your snark and righteous indignation about weather forecasts for another day!

Lori said...

Looks like we got our 6-8 inches last night here in Clearview. On top of the 6 inches left from last weekend, so it’s up to a foot deep!

Meteorcane said...

I am really curious why there are so many bust comments on here given the snow reports I have seen. I mean a few places got less than forecast, but were more or less equalled out by over-performers. I mean you are always going to get spatial variability in any snow event much less one occurring over an area with terrain and other mesoscale influences so if the forecast is 6-8 and you get 4-5 that shouldn't be super-shocking. Hence why Cliff (and recently the NWS as well) provides forecasts out in a probabilistic sense (e.g. your 10th and 90th percentile).

Bryce said...

We have more than six inches in Gig Harbor and it is still coming down hard at 7:30 am on Saturday morning. This is the largest snowstorm in many, many years. Cliff's forecast was spot on, at least for us.

Jellybean said...

Six inches here in Silverdale, which is more than the two inches I was expecting from the HRRR model. The HRRR model had this past of the Kitsap peninsula in a bit of a snow shadow.

rich said...

16 inches at 7:30 AM Sat. In Agnew between Port Angeles & Sequim

Meteorcane said...

Doesn't seem like much of a bust to me, given the snowfall reports I have seen. Sure some areas probably got under what was forecast but these were more or less cancelled out by the over-performers. That kind of spatial variability is present in almost all winter storms (which usually involve some form of mesoscale banding), but is even more likely in areas with coastal/terrain influences which magnifies mesoscale/flow dependent events. Cliff (and recently the NWS as well) give most of their forecasts in probabilistic space anyway and I think outside of some very local effects in areas like Port Angeles most locations stayed within the 10th/90th percentiles of the distribution.

ljb said...

To the impatient and whiny people who called this a bust - maybe in your area but not where I live. Covered in a thick white blanket of snow this morning. Easily 6 inches overnight, if not more.

Whitney McMartin said...

We’ve got 8 inches in Bonney Lake - can’t wait to see what you have to say about the rest of the week Cliff!! We’ve loved your blog for years and are so thankful for all you do for our community ❄️❄️❄️

Jen said...

Nearly 6.5 inches in Phinney / Woodland Park and currently snowing.

Grousefinder said...

Rainier Beach, SE Seattle: just knocked 5” of snow off the greenhouse roof. City plow came down the street and pushed an 18” pile in front of all the driveways. Currently snowing hard. Home Ambient Weather Station (KWASEATT2101) reads 29 degrees F. Anemometer frozen solid. Elevation 371’.

db said...

I think this was a great call – both timing and amounts. It's hard to predict the future. Late yesterday afternoon, it felt too warm in Seattle (Capitol Hill) for the snow predictions to pan out. Snow was falling pretty consistently but it was heavy and wet. Last night about 9-10 PM the snow was coming down much harder in my neighborhood and accumulating at a pretty rapid rate. For Seattle proper the call was 4-6 inches. On East Capitol Hill (el. ~200 ft) I had 5-6 inches this morning of new snow depending on where I measured. Much of our neighborhood still had a lot of snow from the earlier storm, so in some spots I have 7-8" on the ground. I was surprised how little snow was left over from the last storm in other neighborhoods when I drove to the grocery and to fill up the car on Thursday morning.

This morning I have to tunnel out of my front entry to get to my front gate. Bamboozled again by the collapsing bamboo stands:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/96201513@N00/46985379712

Tom said...

Pushing 10 inches in Olympia now

David Ozolin said...

I want to save all these “this is a bust” comments. If they would have actually fully read Cliff’s forecast he said “2 acts”. I think the models nailed the forecast and we currently have 11 inches here in Gig Harbor.

Unknown said...

Just shy of 8 inches snow in Port Townsend and still snowing. We got about 3 inches during part one during the day yesterday and 5 inches through the night. Nice job on the forecast.

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