How far into the future are weather forecasts skillful? And the weekend forecast.

 My new podcast addresses a question I am often asked.  How far into the future are weather forecasts skillful?  

The answer has changed radically during the past three decades and I tell you why.   Just to motivate the discussion, here is a plot of the skill of the National Weather Service global model (GFS) for various lead times (blue bar).   The skill holds up well for the first four days, but you see a big drop during the second week.   This plot also shows the skill of ensemble systems in which many forecasts are made and averaged: the skill holds longer.

My podcast also provides the weekend weather forecast and tells you where you can drive to experience the mid-70s!  See below on how to access the podcast.

To listen to my podcast,  use the link below or access it through your favorite podcast service.

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Announcements

With COVID declining, the department is starting public lectures, and the first one is a very good one (see below).  You must register to attend.

Peter Hobbs Endowed Lecture "Staring Into the Fire: Using Observations to Understand Wildfires and Smoke" - Assoc. Prof. Emily Fischer, CSU April 7, Thursday, 7 – 8:30 p.m. or here. Location:  Kane Hall (KNE) Campus room:  110 Staring Into the Fire: Using Observations to Understand Wildfires and Smoke Recent increases in western U.S. wildfire activity have made wildland fires and the associated smoke a significant challenge for society. This problem will only grow as the climate warms. I will discuss how the atmospheric science community has used both new in situ observations and operational datasets to answer important questions about wildfires and how smoke evolves in the atmosphere. ______________

And the Northwest Weather Workshop will occur (online) on May 7th.   Information is here.

This meeting is open to everyone and covers the big weather events of the year, plus much more.  The June heatwave will be a major topic this year!