It is now clear that August will end up cooler than normal for the region.
It is also certain that British Columbia can expect some very wet conditions and light rain will extend over Washington State this weekend.
All in all very good news, a situation that will greatly reduce wildfire risk for the remainder of the summer.
First, let's consider the expected precipitation totals for the next ten days based on the highly skillful European Center model forecast.
The total through Thursday morning shows light sprinkles over western WA and more substantial amounts over BC and western Alberta
By Saturday morning, Canada was becoming decidedly damp, with the north Cascades picking up more.
By the middle of next week, an approaching system brings heavy rain to southwest BC and western Washington has more precipitation.
And by the end of next week, only the Columbia Basin is spared. Very substantial totals in southern Canada (several inches of rain).
The National Weather Service/NOAA model solutions are similar.
The turn to wet and cooler weather will be caused by the development of a persistent low-pressure area just off our coast, illustrated by the upper level (500-hPa, about 18,000 ft). Blue indicates much lower than normal heights/ pressures....known as a closed low in the business.
This persistent feature should keep temperatures below normal for the rest of the month over the region. The highly skillful weather.com forecast for Seattle predicts temperatures below normal for the remainder of the month, with several days with showers (see below). Not a single day in the 80s or 90s.
With such a forecast, the NW Interagency Coordinating Center for wildfires is predicting lower than normal wildfire threat for next week. Region water usage will be reduced as will the need for air conditioning--so reduced energy use.
This summer has been one of meteorological yin and yang. Cool June, warm July, and cool August.
It does look like cooler and probably wetter weather coming but not sure your prediction for the whole of August to end up cooler than normal for the Wenatchee area will verify. Currently through the 12th of August, Wenatchee is averaging about 8 degrees above the long term normal since August 1st, in both maximum and minimum temperatures. It would take quite a cool period during the last part of this month to drop the average for the whole month to below normal, especially since the minimum temperatures will likely continue above normal even if the maximum temperatures drop below normal.
ReplyDelete"will greatly reduce wildfire risk". Gonna jinx it like usual!
ReplyDeleteAnything to say about the NO2 in the air? Copernicus, via Windy, is showing plumes of it going up Thursday and then going back down to Sunday.
ReplyDeletePurple Air in the Seattle area is showing that Particles >= 0.5µm have been increasing as well. The AQI that AirNow is saying everything is fine but the air obviously smells it is definitely hazy.
Have any insight for those of us with asthma?
Has anyone noticed that all summer long we've only had 3 or 4 overnight lows at 60°F, nothing over? Even on our hottest days. Seems very unusual.
ReplyDeleteis it just me or has summer seemed to have moved 2 weeks earlier over the last 4-5 years? June seems better than it used to be and fall like weather seems to start mid August
ReplyDeleteY'all ...I'm not sure that these variations are outside 'range of normal.' I've lived in the western-cascade region for virtually all of my adult life. Location drives everything. Jabber about records and averages reminds me of this adage about humanity: "What's true about 'all' is rarely, if ever, true about 'any one.' " We have so many wildly differing microclimates within spitting distance of one another (rain-shadow, coastal, banana belt, fringe uplands, foothills, and rugged cascade crest), "range of normal" seems very wide (soaking to bone dry) from year to year, and most certainly decade to decade.
ReplyDeleteThis current rain year near Mt. Baker, the fall was chilly but not particularly wet. Some nights during the winter were colder (very sub-zero, colder than anything I'd seen in 50 years). Then from mid-winter well through June we were still seeing mountain snow and monthly precip was extremely high. Locally, everyone joked that spring-summer might never arrive. But true to our Mediterranean climate, July-August have been pretty dry. As for 'range of normal,' I have actually experienced this pattern more than once, and both flora and fauna are doing just fine. I can't speak for other spots, but just a few days ago we had some refreshing rain overnight, including some thunder and lightning. In all honesty, no part of this is particularly irregular. I'm still trying to 'heal' damage from the bitter winter. I have a friend in the lowlands whose concord grapes were mortally wounded. What I do expect is pretty wild swings, and I've come to think over time that there's massive misinterpretation of high-low statistics in respect to computing things like 'averages.' Trends? "Tea leaf reading" IMHO for the most part, with far too much "steering the boat by watching the wake (of the boat)."
Is it just me or does the sunshine seem weirdly pale? I don't miss the heat but I do miss the brightness.
ReplyDeleteIf the yin and yang pattern continues...September will be warmer than usual? My guess is...yes!
ReplyDelete