Walking my dog yesterday, I ran into a neighbor who asked whether July 4th temperatures in our area had changed much under global warming.
I promised to run the numbers... and here are the results.
Be prepared to be surprised 😀.
Starting at Olympia, on the western side of the state, there is almost no trend in July 4 daily average temperatures since the 1940s! (The purple line is the linear trend).
What about the highest temperatures each year on July 4 in Olympia?
No trend!
OK, now let's check Yakima in eastern Washington!
The July 4 average temperature trend is slightly upward (a little less than 2 F over 75 years).
The trend in the maximum temperatures at Yakima is similar. Modest upward increase.
What about precipitation on July 4th in Olympia? As shown below, there is little evidence of a long-term trend.
Anyway, a big yawn is appropriate for the July 4 trends in temperature over Washington State.
The planet is slowly warming for sure, but the temperature trends in Washington State are very, very modest.
But you might get a different answer if you relied on AI.
I asked Google's AI to create a graphic summarizing the July 4 temperature trend over Washington.
It created the graphic below, with a dramatic upward trend over Washington from 26F to 80°F since 1990 (below). Was it really below freezing in July in 1990?
Total nonsense.
Prof. Mass, how much effect has the Carbon Emissions tax on fuel prices contributed to the moderate temperature change?
ReplyDeleteHow much of those trends is due to the urban heat island effect? Are the measuring stations near an airport where jet plane exhaust might bias the results?
ReplyDeleteThat’s a bizarre hallucination.
ReplyDeleteHappy Fourth of July! 🎉🎆
ReplyDeleteJay Inslee apparently relies on AI for his information... https://x.com/JayInslee/status/2072757299471691836
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately people will take Google AI at it's word and think that's a reasonable answer.
ReplyDeleteWhy the extreme error for Gemini? Is it being trained by the Seattle Times??
ReplyDeleteI wonder what was found in the document-data that the Google AI used for the image? Maybe there is an hallucination as C.P.O. suggests but there must be something that was found. Color me curious!
ReplyDeleteThe NWS "Climate Plot" {CliPlot} application seems to be faulty. The techs responsible must have gotten booted! :)
The word is out Mass has a dog. I find that more interesting than global boredom
ReplyDeletetake the lowest temperature somewhere in the state - say top of Mount Rainier - and the hottest day somewhere in the state on July 4th and you could get quite a spread. After all, what is the temperature of the whole state, which appears to be what AI was trying to answwer.
ReplyDeleteboring. Climate change is way off. Its party time,
ReplyDeleteLooked up July4, for last 94 years at Monroe, WA (USC00455525), excel trendline put slope at .. -.0029x which of course is similarly flat over these year.
ReplyDeleteGoogle's inaccurate AI graphic leads me to a question: has Western Washington ever expierenced a Fourth of July where the daytime high temperatures and/or nighttime low temperatures were more reminiscent of those we would see during a typical Northwest winter? Say, highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s in Seattle?
ReplyDeleteBorn in 1965, and lived here much of my life (except for 1967-1969 before we moved back (Dad was in the Air Force and retired in 1970/71) and a very brief time in Medford OR, and 6 months in Culver City in 2002/early 03) I've lived in western Washington and do recall 4ths where the day begins cloudy and cool, but warms up to the 70's and some years, it reaches mid to upper 70's to the mid 80's.
DeleteSome years, it's cool, temps are in the mid to upper 60's and drizzly and it's been known for summer to officially begin after the 4th.
I'm curious if the pattern holds true for Portland. Summers here feel much hotter than I remember during my childhood in the '70's and '80's, but maybe it's just my imagination?
ReplyDeleteDoesn't this prove the issue? If average temps go up 2 degrees every 75 years, that means in less than 4 generations, temps will be up 10 degrees. This would be catastrophic for crops and, in turn, livestock, etc. If your argument is simply that we aren't all going to die in the next 30 years from climate change, then fine. But to keep using your authority as a scientist to convince people that climate change isn't an issue is simply irresponsible. But I guess if it's not going to hurt me, then why do I care? My great grandkids will either figure it out or starve and I'll be long gone.
ReplyDeleteRobert...you do not have this right. Temperature will not warm at the same rate...it declines over time due to the physics of CO2's effects on radiation--the bands get saturated..cliff
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