Rain is coming to western Washington and the Cascades during the climatologically driest time of the year.
But there is an accompanying risk that needs to be mentioned.
A severe enough risk that at least one local power company (Chelan PUD) may de-energize its lines:
This impressive summer system is associated with a relatively strong upper-level trough, as shown by the 500 hPa heights (think pressure at 18,000 ft) tomorrow at 11 AM.
Not your typical mid-summer pattern 😊
Precipitation will move in on Saturday morning. The predicted totals through 5 PM Saturday (shown below) will be most substantial on the windward sides of regional terrain (up to about .5 inches).
Accompanied by cool air, this event should greatly reduce the potential for wildfires west of the Cascade crests for a week or so.
Some light showers will continue into Sunday, but the totals through Monday morning will be only a bit more:
However, there is a risk factor that needs to be mentioned: increased surface westerly winds east of the Cascade crests, which are driven by the accumulated cool air over western Washington, as well as increased winds at crest level.
Consider the forecast wind gusts on Saturday afternoon. Strong westerly winds from Yakima to Omak, with substantial gusts extending into the Columbia Basin. Maybe even some dust storms.
Winds that could damage powerlines and contribute to new wildfires.
Here are the forecast winds from the UW's highest resolution model. The biggest threat east of Lake Chelan and Wenachee.
If you are located east of a current fire, great caution is advisable.
Happy Dry Day! Downhill from here?
ReplyDeleteI knew this was coming without knowing, let me explain so this afternoon I catch a bee, trying to find shelter in like a window drain hole and came back a couple minutes later he was trying different areas on that wall. That behavior is typically associated with late summer fall rain activity.
ReplyDeleteNice post. good info and emphasis on strong westerly winds and potential risks of increased fire activity in E. Wash. Same here in Oregon where I live with less precip predicted.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the calm, informative breakdown of the conditions we are facing this weekend. While it is good news for the west side of the Cascades, it is very concerning for the east side. I hope everyone east of the Cascades is paying attention to what is going on and stays safe.
ReplyDeleteBurning up over here on eastside. When wind turns to northerly next couple days puts some of my family in path. But I am breathing sigh of relief Governor declared an emergency, but beyond that a token statewide burn ban. (Sarcasm). The Sinlaheken fire will rival our worst fires ever. What gets me is last two days it has only had two helicopters on it. I watched our seats from Omak go to the boarder2 fire rather than on Sinlahekin, this while we all knew this front was coming. Tonight I watched the disaster happening in Spokane, over 17 aircraft (well warranted), but why couldnt we have 17 aircraft on our fires? Not as many homes? JUST TREES? If every fire was met with the same veracity as urban interfaces the trauma my neighbors faced tonight wouldnt have happened or at least less chance. Need to do better. Speaking of air attacks, we need to use them to spray these invasive species of grasses and use them to cast the seed of native grasses.
ReplyDeleteMore resources need to be urgently deployed to the Sinlaheken Fire before it spreads further. That blaze has really spread, and could pose a real risk to the town of Tonasket. We do not need a repeat of what is happening in Spokane right now to happen there. My thoughts are with you, your family, and all the people of Central and Eastern Washington during these trying times.
DeleteMaybe we should hack down all those pine trees which are basically solid gasoline and plant maples instead (just kidding).
ReplyDeleteI rode on both days this weekend, and small bands of moderate rain managed to find me toward the end of both rides. On Saturday, I knew there was a chance of rain, but I figured I could beat it home (I came close, but I missed the mark by about 10 minutes). On Sunday, I chose a longer route after getting a favorable forecast. Unfortunately, I ended up riding through a very annoying (and very localized) shower right around Lake Cassidy.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I noticed is that the wet roadways had this odd soapy appearance to them. I'm not sure if the rain was mixing with freshly painted road stripes or bringing oils from the dry road bed to the surface.